share_log

Warren Buffett Claims To Not 'Time The Market,' But His Cash Horde Tells A Different Story

Warren Buffett Claims To Not 'Time The Market,' But His Cash Horde Tells A Different Story

禾倫·巴菲特聲稱他不「擇時市場」,但他的大量現金儲備卻說了不同的故事
Benzinga ·  12:14

For decades, famed value investor Warren Buffett has insisted that he does not try to "time the market." But, his recent sales could serve as a warning sign for investors amid a period of protracted valuations.

數十年來,著名的價值投資者禾倫·巴菲特堅稱他不會嘗試"時間市場"。但是,他最近的賣出行爲可能成爲投資者在持續估值週期中的警示信號。

What Happened: Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE:BRK) (NYSE:BRK) has gradually wound down its largest positions over the last year.

發帖:巴菲特的伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司(紐交所:BRK)已逐漸削減過去一年中的最大頭寸。

Berkshire slashed its largest position in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) by over two-thirds since 2023. Buffett also sold much of his position in Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) since the summer. He also trimmed back nearly all of his position in Ulta Beauty Inc (NASDAQ:ULTA), an atypically short holding period for the investor who preaches investing for the long term.

伯克希爾削減了其在蘋果公司(納斯達克:AAPL)的最大頭寸超過三分之二自2023年以來。巴菲特還自去年夏天以來出售了大部分美國銀行股份。他還削減了幾乎所有在Ulta Beauty Inc(納斯達克:ULTA)的頭寸,這對於強調長期投資的投資者來說是一個不尋常的短期持有時間。

The Omaha, Nebraska-based company's cash horde now stands at an astounding $325 billion.

總部位於內布拉斯加州奧馬哈的公司的現金儲備現在高達驚人的3250億美元。

Why it Matters: Several market experts have struggled to comprehend Buffett's thought process — is he bearish on the market at large? Reallocating his portfolio away from Apple and Bank of America to diversify? Or, as Buffett hinted at in May, anticipating a future change to U.S. tax laws?

爲什麼重要:幾位市場專家一直很難理解巴菲特的思維過程——他對整個市場持悲觀態度嗎?重新配置投資組合擺脫蘋果和美國銀行以實現多樣化?或者,正如巴菲特在五月時暗示的,是預期未來的美國稅收法律變化?

An article from Bloomberg columnist Nir Kaissar could fuel the first theory. A post on X relayed a graph from the article showing Buffett's cash pile conspicuously rising ahead of financial crises.

彭博社專欄作家Nir Kaissar的一篇文章可能加強了第一種理論。X的一篇發帖轉述了該文章中顯示巴菲特現金儲備明顯增加以應對金融危機的圖表。

Interesting piece here from @markets and how Buffett's cash hoard often spikes before equity market slowdowns. pic.twitter.com/9aFmsMpP2N

— Cullen Roche (@cullenroche) November 21, 2024
The company's cash allocation ticked upwards ahead of two large market crashes in 2000 and 2008.

這裏有一篇有趣的文章@markets,介紹了巴菲特的現金儲備在股票市場放緩之前經常激增。 pic.twitter.com/9aFmsMpP2N

— Cullen Roche (@cullenroche) 2024年11月21日
公司在2000年和2008年兩次大股市崩盤前的幾天裏,現金配置有所提升。

As companies in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) sustain a period of high valuations, Buffett could simply be heeding his advice, "to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful," allocating his portfolio away from what he deems riskier investments

隨着SPDR 標普500 ETF 信託(紐交所:SPY)中的公司維持高估值時期,巴菲特可能只是遵循他的建議,「在別人貪婪時要害怕,在別人恐懼時才貪婪」,將投資組合從他認爲更具風險的投資中調配出去。

Also Read:

還閱讀:

  • S&P 500 Faces Volatile 2025 As 'Inflation Boom' Could Return: Bank Of America Strategist
  • 標普500指數在2025年面臨波動,"通脹繁榮"可能回歸:美國銀行策略師

Photo: Shutterstock

Photo: shutterstock

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
    搶先評論