Why Walmart, Amazon Stock Could Stumble This Holiday Season
Why Walmart, Amazon Stock Could Stumble This Holiday Season
Shares of Walmart fell by an average of 1.1% during the month, marking their worst average monthly performance.Traders eyeing U.S. retail giants like Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) and Best Buy ahead of Black Friday and Cyber Monday may be in for an unpleasant surprise as December kicks in.
隨着12月的到來，在黑色星期五和網絡星期一之前，關注亞馬遜公司（納斯達克股票代碼：AMZN）、沃爾瑪公司（紐約證券交易所代碼：WMT）和百思買等美國零售巨頭的交易員可能會感到不愉快。
Despite the holiday shopping frenzy, historical data spanning decades suggests December is not the ideal month to invest in these retail behemoths.
儘管假日購物狂潮，但數十年的歷史數據表明，12月並不是投資這些零售巨頭的理想月份。
December Is (Not) The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year For Walmart
十二月是（不是）沃爾瑪一年中最美好的時光
Over the last 20 years, December has been Walmart's weakest month of the year.
在過去的20年中，12月是沃爾瑪一年中表現最疲軟的月份。
Shares of Walmart fell by an average of 1.1% during the month, marking their worst average monthly performance.
沃爾瑪的股價在本月平均下跌了1.1％，這是其最差的月度平均表現。
Adding to the gloom, Walmart shares have only closed December in positive territory 40% of the time—just 8 times in 20 years. This is the lowest winning ratio for any month in the calendar year.
雪上加霜的是，沃爾瑪股價僅在12月收盤時有40％的時間處於正值區間——20年內僅有8次收盤。這是該日曆年中任何月份的最低中獎率。
The retailer's worst December performance in recent history occurred in 2022, when Walmart shares tumbled 7% during the month.
這家零售商近代歷史上最差的12月表現發生在2022年，當時沃爾瑪股價在該月下跌了7％。
When extending the timeframe to 30 years, the data remains consistent: December is still Walmart's worst-performing month, with shares dropping 0.9% on average and maintaining a winning ratio of just 40%.
將期限延長至30年時，數據保持一致：12月仍然是沃爾瑪表現最差的月份，股價平均下跌0.9％，勝率僅爲40％。
Read also: November Small-Cap Surge Could Carry Into December's Santa Rally, Historical Trends Suggest
另請閱讀：歷史趨勢表明，11月小盤股的飆升可能會延續到12月的聖誕老人集會
Amazon Also Sees Red In December
亞馬遜在12月也出現紅色
Amazon.com Inc. also tends to falter during the holiday season. While the e-commerce giant doesn't post losses as steep as Walmart's, December ranks as Amazon's second-worst month for stock performance, trailing only February.
亞馬遜公司在假日季也往往步履蹣跚。儘管這家電子商務巨頭的虧損不如沃爾瑪那麼大，但12月是亞馬遜股票表現第二差的月份，僅次於2月。
Over the last 20 years, Amazon shares have fallen an average of 0.27% in December, with a winning ratio of just 45%.
在過去的20年中，亞馬遜股價在12月平均下跌了0.27％，中獎率僅爲45％。
The worst December on record came recently in 2022, when Amazon's stock plummeted by 13%, reflecting broader market turbulence.
有記錄以來最糟糕的12月最近發生在2022年，當時亞馬遜的股價暴跌了13％，反映了更廣泛的市場動盪。
However, December hasn't always been grim—Amazon saw some standout gains in the past, including a 20.1% rally in 2008 and an 11.6% jump in 2004.
但是，12月並不總是嚴峻的——亞馬遜過去曾出現過一些顯著的漲幅，包括2008年的20.1％的漲幅和2004年的11.6％的漲幅。
Why Do Amazon And Walmart Struggle During the Holidays?
爲什麼亞馬遜和沃爾瑪在假日期間會陷入困境？
At first glance, the holiday season—a time of frenzied shopping activity—might seem like a boon for retail stocks. But Wall Street investors often shy away from buying retail giants like Amazon and Walmart during this period, and the reasons boil down to profit margins.
乍一看，假日季——瘋狂購物活動的時期——對零售股來說似乎是一個福音。但在此期間，華爾街投資者往往回避收購亞馬遜和沃爾瑪等零售巨頭，原因歸結爲利潤率。
Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals may boost revenue, but they also weigh on profit margins. The steep discounts needed to attract consumers during the holidays often lead to margin compression, a red flag for investors prioritizing profitability.
黑色星期五和網絡星期一的優惠可能會增加收入，但也會壓制利潤率。假日期間吸引消費者所需的大幅折扣通常會導致利潤率壓縮，這對於優先考慮盈利能力的投資者來說是一個危險信號。
The holiday period is typically when expectations for retail performance are already sky-high. If results don't meet or exceed those lofty benchmarks, stocks often sell-off.
假日期間通常是對零售業績的預期已經很高的時候。如果業績沒有達到或超過這些崇高的基準，股票通常會被拋售。
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Photo: Shutterstock
照片：Shutterstock
