Maybank said it came away from AEON's 3Q24 results briefing feeling positive believing the earnings should improve in the subsequent quarters on better consumer spending and stronger PMS contribution driven by its newly renovated malls. The house keeps its earnings estimates, BUY call and TP of MYR1.95.
Retail sales momentum is picking up speed
At AEON's 3Q24 results briefing, management shared that 9M24 retail EBIT margin increased to 2% (+0.3 ppts YoY) despite a flattish average basket size of MYR61.80 (9M23: MYR62.00), and a weaker product mix – where its lower margin foodline sales grew at the expense of softline and hardline categories. The house believes that the retail margin improvement had come from higher sales conversion rates from intensified marketing campaigns for AEON's 40th anniversary this year and expects this positive momentum to continue into 4Q24E.
PMS earnings have further room to grow
The group's 9M24 mall occupancy rate has risen to 95.1% (9M23: 91.8%) alongside positive rental reversions of between +7% to +9%. Maybank said it understands that the remaining mall rejuvenation exercises planned for FY24 – at AEON Bukit Indah, AEON Ipoh Station 18, and AEON Tebrau City – have been completed in early-Nov 2024, to avoid any shopping disruptions to
consumers during the Dec festive month. AEON will resume its mall rejuvenation activities in FY25 but has not shared any detailed plans at this juncture. Note that AEON typically experiences c.15% to 20% increase in sales in the year following major store or mall renovations.
Positive outlook intact
Aside from expectations for stronger festive spending in 4Q24E, the civil service salary increase (effective 1 Dec 2024) should also provide an added boost to AEON's retail and PMS sales in the next few quarters. The impact of minimum wage increase (effective 1 Feb 2025) on AEON's opex will be minimal as foreign workers make up <5% of its total workforce. Separately, management targets to achieve EBIT margins of c.2.5% for its retail segment in FY24 (9M24: 1.7%) and >38% for its PMS segment (9M24: 39.7%), consistent with modelled assumptions (retail: 2.3%, PMS: 40%).
馬來亞銀行表示，在永旺24年第三季度業績發佈會之後，它感到樂觀，認爲由於消費者支出增加，以及新裝修的購物中心推動的PMS貢獻增加，後續幾個季度的收益將有所改善。衆議院維持其收益預期、買入看漲期權和目標價爲1.95馬幣。
零售銷售勢頭正在加快
在永旺的24年第三季度業績發佈會上，管理層表示，儘管平均籃子規模持平，爲61.80馬幣（9M23：62.00令吉），而且產品組合疲軟——其利潤率較低的食品類銷售增長是以犧牲軟產品和強硬品類爲代價的，但其利潤率較低的食品類銷售額增長了2％（同比增長0.3個百分點）。該公司認爲，零售利潤率的提高來自於今年永旺40週年之際加強的營銷活動所帶來的銷售轉化率的提高，並預計這種積極勢頭將持續到 4Q24E。
PMS 的收入還有進一步的增長空間
該集團的9M24購物中心入住率已上升至95.1％（9M23：91.8％），租金回報率在+ 7％至+ 9％之間。馬來亞銀行表示，據了解，計劃於24財年在永旺武吉英達、永旺怡保18號站和永旺特布勞城舉行的其餘購物中心振興活動已於2024年11月初完成，以避免購物中斷
十二月節日期間的消費者。永旺將在25財年恢復其購物中心振興活動，但目前尚未分享任何詳細計劃。請注意，在大型商店或購物中心裝修之後，永旺的銷售額通常會增長約15％至20％。
樂觀前景不變
除了預期 4Q24E 的節日支出將增加外，公務員薪資的上調（2024年12月1日生效）還將進一步推動永旺在未來幾個季度的零售和PMS銷售。最低工資提高（自2025年2月1日起生效）對永旺運營支出的影響微乎其微，因爲外國工人佔其總勞動力的比例<5％。另外，管理層的目標是根據模擬假設（零售：2.3％，PMS：40％），在24財年實現零售板塊的息稅前利潤率約爲2.5％（24年9個月：1.7％），PMS板塊的息稅前利潤率超過38％（24年9個月：39.7％）。
