Is Gap (NYSE:GAP) A Risky Investment?
Is Gap (NYSE:GAP) A Risky Investment?
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, The Gap, Inc. (NYSE:GAP) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
大衛·伊本說得好,他說:「波動性不是我們關心的風險。我們關心的是避免資本的永久損失。」當我們思考一家公司的風險有多大時,我們總是喜歡考慮其債務的用途,因爲債務過載可能導致破產。重要的是,Gap, Inc.(紐約證券交易所代碼:GAP)確實有債務。但是,股東是否應該擔心其債務的使用?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
債務帶來什麼風險?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
債務爲企業提供幫助,直到企業難以用新資本或自由現金流還清債務。如果情況變得非常糟糕,貸款人可以控制業務。但是,更常見(但仍然令人痛苦)的情況是它必須以低價籌集新的股權資本,從而永久稀釋股東。當然,許多公司使用債務爲增長提供資金,而不會產生任何負面後果。在考慮企業使用多少債務時,要做的第一件事是將現金和債務放在一起考慮。
What Is Gap's Debt?
Gap 的債務是什麼?
As you can see below, Gap had US$1.49b of debt, at November 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. But on the other hand it also has US$2.22b in cash, leading to a US$730.0m net cash position.
如下所示,截至2024年11月,Gap的債務爲14.9億美元,與前一年大致相同。您可以單擊圖表以獲取更多詳細信息。但另一方面,它也有22.2億美元的現金,淨現金狀況爲7.30億美元。
A Look At Gap's Liabilities
看看 Gap 的負債
According to the last reported balance sheet, Gap had liabilities of US$3.33b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$5.39b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$2.22b as well as receivables valued at US$289.0m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$6.21b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
根據上次報告的資產負債表,Gap的負債爲33.3億美元,12個月後到期的負債爲53.9億美元。除這些債務外,它有22.2億美元的現金以及價值2.890億美元的應收賬款在12個月內到期。因此,它的負債總額比其現金和短期應收賬款的總和多出62.1億美元。
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of US$9.36b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Gap's use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, Gap boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!
相對於其93.6億美元的市值,這一赤字相當可觀,因此這確實表明股東應密切關注Gap對債務的使用。這表明,如果公司需要迅速支撐資產負債表,股東將被嚴重稀釋。儘管負債值得關注,但Gap擁有淨現金,因此可以公平地說,它沒有沉重的債務負擔!
Even more impressive was the fact that Gap grew its EBIT by 177% over twelve months. If maintained that growth will make the debt even more manageable in the years ahead. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Gap's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
更令人印象深刻的是,Gap在十二個月內將其息稅前利潤增長了177%。如果這種增長得以維持,將使未來幾年的債務更加易於管理。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但是,未來的收益將決定Gap未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. While Gap has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Happily for any shareholders, Gap actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last two years. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.
最後,企業需要自由現金流來償還債務;會計利潤根本無法減少債務。儘管Gap的資產負債表上有淨現金,但仍值得一看其將息稅前收益(EBIT)轉換爲自由現金流的能力,以幫助我們了解其建立(或侵蝕)現金餘額的速度有多快。令所有股東感到高興的是,在過去兩年中,Gap產生的自由現金流實際上超過了息稅前利潤。當Daft Punk音樂會的節拍下降時,這種強勁的現金轉換讓我們和觀衆一樣興奮。
Summing Up
總結
While Gap does have more liabilities than liquid assets, it also has net cash of US$730.0m. The cherry on top was that in converted 149% of that EBIT to free cash flow, bringing in US$1.1b. So is Gap's debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Gap .
儘管Gap的負債確實多於流動資產,但其淨現金也爲7.30億美元。最重要的是,它將該息稅前利潤的149%轉換爲自由現金流,帶來了11美元的收入。那麼 Gap 的債務有風險嗎?在我們看來,情況並非如此。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。爲此,你應該注意我們在 Gap 中發現的 1 個警告標誌。
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
歸根結底,通常最好專注於沒有淨負債的公司。您可以訪問我們的此類公司的特別名單(所有公司都有利潤增長的記錄)。它是免費的。
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