Economists Split on MAS Policy for Early 2025 as October Inflation Eases
Economists Split on MAS Policy for Early 2025 as October Inflation Eases
"We view our call as a step to restore monetary policy neutrality, to be consistent with trend growth and y/y core inflation returning to desired levels where the cyclically-neutral path of the S$NEER is associated with a positive rate of appreciation" UOB explained.Headline and core inflation down 1.4%YoY and 2.1%, respectively.
頭條和核心通貨膨脹率分別下降了1.4%和2.1%。
Experts are split on whether a monetary policy adjustment will occur in early 2025 following inflation eases in October.
專家對於2025年初是否會發生貨幣政策調整存在分歧，因爲十月份的通貨膨脹有所緩和。
A UOB expert said the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) may slightly reduce the slope of the S$NEER policy band by 50 basis points in early 2025, citing easing inflationary pressures and a gradual return to price stability.
一位大華銀行的專家表示，新加坡貨幣局（MAS）可能會在2025年初將新加坡元名義有效匯率（S$NEER）政策帶的斜率略微降低50個點子，理由是通貨膨脹壓力減輕，逐漸回歸價格穩定。
"We view our call as a step to restore monetary policy neutrality, to be consistent with trend growth and y/y core inflation returning to desired levels where the cyclically-neutral path of the S$NEER is associated with a positive rate of appreciation" UOB explained.
「我們認爲我們的看漲是爲了恢復貨幣政策的中立性，與趨勢增長和年度核心通貨膨脹率回到理想水平一致，其中S$NEER的週期中立路徑與積極的升值速度相提並論。」 大華銀行解釋道。
They added that core inflation is expected to ease to 1.7% in 2025, supported by higher base effects and moderating cost pressures.
他們補充說，核心通貨膨脹預計將在2025年降至1.7%，受到較高的基期影響和成本壓力趨緩的支持。
Headline inflation eased to 1.4% YoY in October from 2.0% in September, whilst MAS core inflation fell to 2.1% from 2.8% over the same period.
十月份，總體通貨膨脹較九月份的2.0%降至1.4%，而MAS核心通貨膨脹率從同期的2.8%下降至2.1%。
RHB, however, expects MAS to maintain its current policy parameters into 1H25, emphasizing the entrenched disinflation trend and manageable inflation risks.
然而，RHb預計MAS會將其目前的政策參數維持到2025年上半年，強調了根深蒂固的通貨緊縮趨勢和可控的通貨膨脹風險。
For 2024, UOB maintains its average core inflation forecast at 2.8% and expects headline inflation to average 2.3%.
對於2024年，大華銀行維持其核心通貨膨脹預測平均值爲2.8%，並預計總體通貨膨脹率將平均2.3%。
RHB also projects core inflation at 2.8% and headline inflation at 2.6%, citing muted inflationary trends across the region.
RHb還預測核心通脹率爲2.8％，總通脹率爲2.6％，並指出整個地域板塊的通脹趨勢溫和。
