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Oil Price Outlook for 2025, Plus Smart Energy Stocks

Oil Price Outlook for 2025, Plus Smart Energy Stocks

2025年石油價格展望,以及智能能源股票
The Motley Fool ·  2024/11/26 10:00

The current year hasn't been great for oil prices. They experienced a climb in the first few months of the year, but since then, it has mostly been a downward slump. The current West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is about US$15 lower compared to its five-year peak. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has cut its original outlook for 2025 by US$6.5 per barrel. Even though the estimated price is higher than the current WTI price per barrel, it doesn't look very promising.

今年對油價來說並不樂觀。他們在今年的前幾個月經歷了攀升,但從那以後,主要是向下滑動。目前的西德克薩斯中質原油(WTI)與其五年峯值相比下跌了約15美元。美國能源信息管理局已將其最初的2025年展望下調了每桶6.5美元。儘管估計價格高於當前的WTI每桶價格,但看起來並不十分樂觀。

Even more troubling is the forecast about lower oil demand. Geopolitical variables may also influence the price. Some can push the price down further, while others may push it well beyond the estimates.

更令人不安的是石油需求下降的預測。地緣政治變量也可能影響價格。有些人可以進一步壓低價格,而另一些人則可能將其推高出預期。

A wild card variable is any breakthrough in battery technology or hydrogen, which makes zero-emission vehicles more financially feasible and practical — something like that can decimate oil demand, at least for a while.

通配符變量是電池技術或氫氣的任何突破,這使得零排放汽車在經濟上更具可行性和實用性——這樣的東西至少在一段時間內可以減少石油需求。

With that in mind, it's prudent to be careful with your choices for the energy stocks.

考慮到這一點,謹慎的做法是謹慎地選擇能源股。

A midstream stock

一隻中游股票

Enbridge (TSX:ENB) is not just Canada's midstream giant but one of the largest pipeline companies in the world. It's also rapidly growing its natural gas utility businesses, which further solidifies its overall business model. This makes its revenues quite stable and less vulnerable to price fluctuations than upstream or even downstream businesses. This, in turn, makes its dividends more financially stable and reliable.

Enbridge(多倫多證券交易所股票代碼:ENB)不僅是加拿大的中游巨頭,也是世界上最大的管道公司之一。它還迅速發展其天然氣公用事業業務,這進一步鞏固了其整體商業模式。與上游甚至下游業務相比,這使得其收入相當穩定,並且不易受到價格波動的影響。這反過來又使其股息在財務上更加穩定和可靠。

The business model, dividend sustainability, and stellar dividend history (29 consecutive years of dividend growth) collectively make Enbridge one of the safest stocks you can buy in this oil price uncertainty environment. The 6.1% dividend yield is also a compelling reason to buy this stock.

商業模式、股息可持續性和出色的股息歷史(連續29年的股息增長)共同使Enbridge成爲在這種油價不確定環境中您可以購買的最安全的股票之一。6.1%的股息收益率也是購買該股票的令人信服的理由。

While growth/capital appreciation potential isn't a strong suit for this stock, it is quite bullish right now. It has grown 19% in the last six months. In contrast, the TSX Energy Index slipped about 5% over the same period. This further endorses Enbridge's ability to remain resilient even when the rest of the sector is weak.

儘管增長/資本增值潛力並不適合這隻股票,但目前它相當看漲。在過去的六個月中,它增長了19%。相比之下,多倫多證券交易所能源指數同期下跌了約5%。這進一步證實了Enbridge即使該行業其他部門疲軟也能保持彈性。

An upstream stock

上游股票

Parex Resources (TSX:PXT) is currently one of the most heavily discounted energy stocks in Canada, which is surprising since most upstream stocks enjoyed a solid bull market phase while this stock slipped.

Parex Resources(多倫多證券交易所股票代碼:PXT)目前是加拿大折扣幅度最高的能源股之一,這令人驚訝,因爲大多數上游股票在股票下滑時都經歷了穩健的牛市階段。

Even though it's turning things around, it's still trading at a 48% discount from its five-year peak. Despite a weak oil price outlook, this discount and its undervaluation are among the most compelling reasons to buy this stock.

儘管它正在扭轉局面,但其交易價格仍比五年峯值折扣48%。儘管油價前景疲軟,但這種折扣及其低估是購買該股的最有說服力的理由之一。

Another reason is the incredibly high dividend yield. The company is currently paying dividends at a yield of about 10.3%, and the payout ratio of 44% is rock solid, making its dividends highly desirable. If the company starts recovering from its current fall, you might also get returns from its growth.

另一個原因是令人難以置信的高股息收益率。該公司目前的股息收益率約爲10.3%,而44%的派息率堅如磐石,因此其分紅非常理想。如果公司開始從當前的跌勢中恢復過來,您可能還會從其增長中獲得回報。

Foolish takeaway

愚蠢的外賣

The energy sector is going through a rough phase around the globe. Part of it is the worldwide switch to renewables. Geo-political factors like tensions involving major oil producers and importers and leadership changes can also exacerbate the situation. With this many concerning variables in the equation, stocks like Enbridge and Parex may be healthy picks for a wide range of investors.

全球能源行業正在經歷一個艱難的階段。其中一部分是全球向可再生能源的轉變。涉及主要石油生產國和進口國的緊張局勢以及領導層更迭等地緣政治因素也可能加劇局勢。由於等式中有這麼多相關的變量,對於廣大投資者來說,像Enbridge和Parex這樣的股票可能是健康的選擇。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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