Economist Steve Hanke Brushes Off Trump Economic Worries As 'Nonsense,' Predicts Fed Will Bring Prices Below 2% In 2025
Economist Steve Hanke Brushes Off Trump Economic Worries As 'Nonsense,' Predicts Fed Will Bring Prices Below 2% In 2025
The economist predicts inflation will fall below the Fed's 2% target in 2025, challenging warnings from economists like former Treasury Secretary Contrary to growing concerns about potential inflationary pressures under President-elect Donald Trump's administration, top economist Steve Hanke dismisses fears of a significant price surge, citing monetary policy and money supply as critical factors.
與對當選總統特朗普政府下潛在通貨膨脹壓力的日益擔憂相反，頂級經濟學家史蒂夫·漢基駁斥了對價格大幅上漲的恐懼，指出貨幣政策和貨幣供應是關鍵因素。
What Happened: In a recent interview with CNBC, Hanke argued that the inflation trajectory depends more on Federal Reserve actions than proposed economic policies. "All this talk about Trump's policies causing inflation to kick up again is just nonsense," Hanke stated.
發生了什麼：在最近接受CNBC採訪時，漢基辯稱，通貨膨脹的軌跡更多地取決於聯儲局的行動，而不是提出的經濟政策。「關於特朗普的政策導致通貨膨脹再次上升的所有討論簡直是無稽之談，」漢基表示。
Hanke highlighted a critical economic indicator: the U.S. money supply, which has contracted since 2022. Historically, such contractions have preceded economic downturns. "The money supply is growing at 2.6% year-over-year, below my golden growth rate of 6%," he explained.
漢基強調了一個關鍵的經濟因子：自2022年以來美國貨幣供應的收縮。歷史上，這種收縮往往是經濟衰退的前兆。「貨幣供應的年增長率爲2.6%，低於我認爲的黃金增長率6%,」他解釋道。
The economist predicts inflation will fall below the Fed's 2% target in 2025, challenging warnings from economists like former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, who anticipates potential inflationary risks from proposed tax cuts and trade policies.
這位經濟學家預測，到2025年，通貨膨脹將低於聯儲局的2%目標，挑戰像前財政部長拉里·薩默斯這樣的經濟學家的警告，他預計提議的減稅和貿易政策可能帶來通貨膨脹風險。
Why It Matters: Hanke praised the potential administration's focus on economic deregulation, suggesting it could enhance GDP growth without triggering significant inflation. He referenced Scott Bessent, Trump's potential Treasury Secretary pick, who has proposed strategies to mitigate potential inflationary impacts.
爲什麼這很重要：漢基讚揚了潛在政府對經濟放鬆監管的關注，認爲這可能在不引發顯著通貨膨脹的情況下增強GDP增長。他提到了特朗普可能提名的財政部長斯科特·貝森特，他提出了減輕潛在通貨膨脹影響的策略。
Market indicators currently show resilience. S&P 500 tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) has gained 3.61% since Nov. 5, trading at $597.53 on Monday, while Nasdaq-100 Index tracked by Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ) increased 2.92% during the same period to $506.59, data from Benzinga Pro.
市場因子目前顯示出韌性。追蹤標普500的SPDR S&P 500 ETF信託（NYSE:SPY）自11月5日以來上漲了3.61%，週一交易價格爲597.53美元，而納斯達克100指數由Invesco QQQ信託，系列1（NASDAQ:QQQ）追蹤，在同一時期增長了2.92%，價位爲506.59美元，依據Benzinga Pro的數據。
The potential economic shifts come amid a complex fiscal landscape, with the U.S. federal budget deficit projected to reach $1.7 trillion in 2024 and the debt-to-GDP ratio approaching 120%.
潛在的經濟變化發生在一個複雜的財政環境中，美國聯邦預算赤字預計在2024年將達到1.7萬億，債務佔GDP的比率接近120%。
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