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Bitcoin Correction Could Go As Deep As $88,700 But $125,000 Year-End Target Remains In Play, Says Standard Chartered

Bitcoin Correction Could Go As Deep As $88,700 But $125,000 Year-End Target Remains In Play, Says Standard Chartered

標準 Chartered 表示,比特幣的修正可能深達 $88,700,但 $125,000 的年終目標仍然有效。
Benzinga ·  2024/11/26 23:15

Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) sharp pullback from its record high just under $100,000 has sparked concern among traders, with Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick attributing the correction to several factors, including a reduction in U.S. Treasury term premium and upcoming options expirations.

比特幣(加密貨幣:BTC)從接近100,000美元的歷史最高點急劇回調,引發了交易者的擔憂,渣打銀行的Geoffrey Kendrick將這一修正歸因於多個因素,包括美國國債期限溢價的減少和即將到來的期權到期。

What Happened: According to Kendrick, the significant reduction in U.S. Treasury term premium following President-elect Donald Trump's Treasury Secretary announcement triggered Bitcoin's decline.

發生了什麼:根據Kendrick的說法,特朗普總統當選後的財政部長任命導致美國國債期限溢價的顯著減少,進而觸發了比特幣的下滑。

In a note sent to Benzinga, he explained that Bitcoin is often viewed as a hedge against traditional financial issues, and lower term premiums undermine its appeal in this role.

他在發給Benzinga的一份說明中解釋說,比特幣通常被視爲對傳統金融問題的對沖,而較低的期限溢價削弱了其在這一角色中的吸引力。

Data from the New York Fed, which tracks term premium movements, supports the connection between recent Treasury market activity and the crypto market's performance.

來自紐約聯邦儲備銀行的數據跟蹤了期限溢價的變化,支持了近期國債市場活動與加密市場表現之間的聯繫。

"Bitcoin thrives on uncertainty in traditional finance. When Treasury term premiums drop, that hedge utility temporarily diminishes," Kendrick noted.

"比特幣在傳統金融的不確定性中蓬勃發展。當國債期限溢價下降時,這種對沖效用會暫時減弱,"Kendrick指出。

Further adding to the downward pressure are the substantial monthly options expiries scheduled for Friday.

進一步增加下行壓力的是定於週五到期的大量月度期權。

Data from Deribit highlights that BTC options with strike prices ranging from $85,000 to $100,000 account for over 18,000 BTC in open interest.

來自Deribit的數據突顯出,行權價格在85,000到100,000美元之間的比特幣期權的未平倉合約超過18,000 BTC。

Historically, options expirations have constrained price movement, with traders positioning themselves around these key levels, creating a magnet effect on spot prices.

歷史上,期權到期一直限制價格波動,交易者圍繞這些關鍵水平進行佈局,形成對現貨價格的吸引效應。

Kendrick predicts a potential drop below $88,700—the average purchase price for ETFs and MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) since the U.S. elections.

Kendrick預測比特幣可能跌破$88,700——這是自美國選舉以來etf和microstrategy(納斯達克:MSTR)的平均購買價格。

This could lead Bitcoin to test its critical support zone between $85,000 and $88,700 before resuming its uptrend.

這可能導致比特幣測試其關鍵壓力位區間,位於$85,000和$88,700之間,然後恢復上漲趨勢。

Despite the retracement, institutional interest remains robust.

儘管出現回調,但機構投資興趣依然強勁。

ETFs have recorded inflows of approximately 77,000 BTC since the U.S. elections, while MicroStrategy has acquired an additional 134,000 BTC.

自美國選舉以來,etf的資金流入約爲77,000 BTC,而microstrategy則額外收購了134,000 BTC。

However, Kendrick cautions that the recent influx of institutional buying at an average price of $88,700 could serve as a temporary ceiling until broader market dynamics shift.

然而,Kendrick警告稱,近期機構在平均價格爲$88,700的情況下大量買入,可能會成爲臨時的頂部,直到更廣泛的市場動態發生變化。

Also Read: Trump Threatens 25% Tariffs On Canada, Mexico Until 'Invasion' Is Stopped, But Polymarket Traders Aren't Convinced

另請閱讀:特朗普威脅對加拿大、墨西哥徵收25%的關稅,直到「入侵」停止,但Polymarket交易員並不相信。

Why It Matters: Bitcoin's pullback has also affected the wider crypto market.

爲什麼這很重要:比特幣的回調也影響了更廣泛的加密市場。

BTC's decline from $98,500 to $93,500 coincided with a dip in overall market capitalization from $3.5 billion to $3.35 billion.

比特幣從$98,500下跌至$93,500,恰好與整體市值從$35億降至$33.5億相吻合。

Futures markets saw over $500 million liquidated during the volatility, reflecting heightened risk aversion.

期貨市場在波動中清算了超過50000萬美元,反映了加劇的風險厭惡情緒。

Kendrick maintained his year-end target of $125,000 for Bitcoin and a 2025 projection of $200,000.

凱德里克維持了他對比特幣年末125,000美元的目標,以及2025年200,000美元的預測。

He sees the current retracement as a necessary correction, driven by macroeconomic factors and technical market events.

他認爲當前的回撤是必要的修正,受到宏觀經濟因素和技術市場事件的驅動。

"We are still in a structural bull market," Kendrick emphasized. "Once these short-term headwinds subside, Bitcoin is well-positioned to resume its upward trajectory."

「我們仍然處於結構性的牛市中,」凱德里克強調道。「一旦這些短期逆風減退,比特幣將再次有良好的上漲空間。」

Price Action: According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin is currently trading at $93,440, down 1.5% for the day after making a high of $99,645 on Nov. 22.

價格動作:根據CoinGecko的數據,比特幣目前的交易價格爲93,440美元,較今日下跌1.5%,經過11月22日最高價99,645美元。

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