Is Kinetic Development Group (HKG:1277) A Risky Investment?
Is Kinetic Development Group (HKG:1277) A Risky Investment?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Kinetic Development Group Limited (HKG:1277) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
由伯克希爾哈撒韋的查理·芒格支持的外部基金經理李錄對此毫不掩飾,他說'最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受資本的永久損失。' 當我們考慮公司有多大風險時,我們總是喜歡關注它的債務使用,因爲債務超載可能導致滅亡。我們可以看到,Kinetic Development Group Limited (HKG:1277) 在業務中確實使用了債務。但股東們是否應該擔心它的債務使用?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
債務是幫助企業增長的工具,但如果企業無力償還債務,那麼它就完全受債權人支配。 如果情況變得非常糟糕,債權人可以控制企業。 但更頻繁(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,一家公司必須以廉價的價格發行股份,永久性削弱股東,只是爲了強化其資產負債表。 然而,通過取代股權稀釋,債務可以成爲需要資本以高回報率投資增長的企業的極好工具。 當我們考慮一家公司使用債務時,我們首先將現金和債務放在一起。
What Is Kinetic Development Group's Net Debt?
Kinetic Development Group的淨債務是多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Kinetic Development Group had debt of CN¥982.3m at the end of June 2024, a reduction from CN¥1.47b over a year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥614.5m, its net debt is less, at about CN¥367.8m.
下面的圖片,您可以點擊查看更多詳情,顯示Kinetic Development Group於2024年6月底的債務爲CN¥98230萬,較去年減少CN¥14.7億。然而,由於它擁有CN¥61450萬的現金儲備,其淨債務較少,約爲CN¥36780萬。
A Look At Kinetic Development Group's Liabilities
概述Kinetic Development Group的負債情況
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Kinetic Development Group had liabilities of CN¥3.03b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥895.7m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥614.5m as well as receivables valued at CN¥89.7m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥3.22b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
從最近的資產負債表中,我們可以看到Kinetic Development Group有着30.3億人民幣的一年內到期的負債,以及89570萬人民幣到期後超過一年的負債。 抵消這些義務的是,它持有61450萬人民幣的現金以及12個月內到期的8970萬人民幣的應收賬款。 因此,其負債總額比其現金和短期應收款的總和高出32.2億人民幣。
Kinetic Development Group has a market capitalization of CN¥10.7b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
Kinetic Development Group的市值爲107億人民幣,所以如果有需要,它很有可能籌集現金以改善其資產負債表。 但我們絕對希望保持警惕,以防其債務帶來過多風險。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
我們通過將公司的淨債務與其息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)相除,並計算其息稅前利潤(EBIT)如何覆蓋其利息費用(利息覆蓋率)來衡量公司的債務負擔相對於其盈利能力。因此,我們同時考慮債務的絕對數量以及所支付的利率。
Kinetic Development Group has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.11. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 163 times the size. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. In addition to that, we're happy to report that Kinetic Development Group has boosted its EBIT by 35%, thus reducing the spectre of future debt repayments. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Kinetic Development Group will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Kinetic Development Group的淨債務與EBITDA比率僅爲0.11。 它的EBIt輕鬆地覆蓋了利息費用,是利息費用的163倍。 因此,我們對其超級保守的債務使用相當放心。 此外,我們很高興地報告說,Kinetic Development Group的EBIt增長了35%,從而減少了未來債務償還的風險。 毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中了解債務情況最多。 但您不能將債務完全孤立地看待;因爲Kinetic Development Group將需要利潤來償還債務。 因此,在考慮債務時,着眼於收益趨勢絕對是值得的。 請點擊這裏查看一個互動快照。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Kinetic Development Group produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 59% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
最後,一家公司只能用冰冷的硬現金償還債務,而不能用會計利潤。 因此,我們始終檢查有多少EBIt轉化爲自由現金流。 在過去的三年中,Kinetic Development Group產生了強勁的自由現金流,相當於其EBIt的59%,這正是我們所期望的。 這種自由現金流使公司處於一個良好的位置,可以在適當時償還債務。
Our View
我們的觀點
Happily, Kinetic Development Group's impressive interest cover implies it has the upper hand on its debt. And the good news does not stop there, as its EBIT growth rate also supports that impression! Looking at the bigger picture, we think Kinetic Development Group's use of debt seems quite reasonable and we're not concerned about it. While debt does bring risk, when used wisely it can also bring a higher return on equity. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Kinetic Development Group .
Kinetic Development Group的利率期貨覆蓋率令人印象深刻,這意味着它在債務方面佔據上風。而好消息並不止於此,因爲其EBIt增長率也支持了這一印象!從更大的角度來看,我們認爲Kinetic Development Group對債務的運用似乎相當合理,我們並不擔心。雖然債務帶來風險,但明智利用時也會帶來更高的股本回報。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是明顯的起點。但最終,每家公司都可能存在超出資產負債表之外的風險。爲此,您應該注意我們發現的Kinetic Development Group的1個警示信號。
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
當然,如果您是那種喜歡購買沒有債務負擔的股票的投資者,那麼不要猶豫,立即發現我們獨家的淨現金增長股票列表。
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章是一般性質的。我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,使用公正的方法,我們的文章並非意在提供財務建議。這並不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,並且不考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您帶來基於基礎數據驅動的長期聚焦分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St對提及的任何股票都沒有持倉。