BAuto Earnings Forecast Lowered On Weaker Mazda, Kia Sales Expected
BAuto Earnings Forecast Lowered On Weaker Mazda, Kia Sales Expected
While the current forecasts exclude contribution from Deepal, initial expectations indicate an additional c.1k annual sales for BAuto.Earnings revision reflects weaker sales forecasts. The earnings revision reflects weaker-than-expected Mazda and Kia sales with Mazda reporting just 6.8k units sold (May–Oct) vs. initial FY25E assumption of 18.0k units (our revision is 12.0k units).
Maybank IB has cut the earnings forecast for Bermaz Auto by 21%/8%/6% for year 25,26 and 27 and reduce the TP by 20% to MYR2.42. Despite this, the house remained positive on BAuto's acquisition of Deepal distributorship in Malaysia, which adds a competitive EV brand to its portfolio.
Maybank Ib已經下調了Bermaz Auto在25、26和27年的盈利預測21%/8%/6%，並將目標價下調20%至MYR2.42。儘管如此，該機構仍然看好BAuto在馬來西亞收購Deepal經銷權的舉動，這爲其投資組合增加了具有競爭力的電動汽車品牌。
The house is maintaining its BUY call on BAuto for its attractive valuation with a special dividend likely to be paid out from Mazda Malaysia.
該機構仍然維持對BAuto的買入看漲建議，因爲其有吸引力的估值，可能會有一筆特別股息來自馬自達馬來西亞的分紅。
Creating a synergy of excellence
Deepal, owned by Changan Automobile – one of China's top 4 automotive groups (ranked after BYD, Chery, and Geely), is set to enhance BAuto's portfolio. Models slated for Malaysia will include the S05 (compact SUV) and S07 (mid-size SUV), with the S05 achieving impressive sales of 21.7k units within a month of its Oct 2024 launch in China. Deepal's launches in Malaysia are anticipated by mid-2025, likely as CBUs from Changan's new TH plant.
創造卓越的協同效應
Deepal由長安汽車旗下擁有，長安汽車是中國四大汽車集團之一（排名僅次於比亞迪、奇瑞和吉利），預計將增強BAuto的產品系列。馬來西亞計劃推出的車型包括S05（緊湊型SUV）和S07（中型SUV），其中S05在2024年10月在中國推出僅一個月就實現了2.17萬輛的銷量。預計Deepal在馬來西亞的推出將在2025年中旬進行，可能來源於長安汽車全新TH工廠的完整裝配車輛。
While the current forecasts exclude contribution from Deepal, initial expectations indicate an additional c.1k annual sales for BAuto.Earnings revision reflects weaker sales forecasts. The earnings revision reflects weaker-than-expected Mazda and Kia sales with Mazda reporting just 6.8k units sold (May–Oct) vs. initial FY25E assumption of 18.0k units (our revision is 12.0k units).
儘管目前的預測未包括Deepal的貢獻，但初步預期表明BAuto每年可能增加約0.1萬輛的銷量。盈利修訂反映了較弱的銷售預測。收益修訂反映了馬自達和起亞的銷售不及預期，馬自達報告的僅爲0.68萬輛（5月至10月），而不是最初的FY25E預期1.8萬輛（我們的修訂爲1.2萬輛）。
Looking ahead, Maybank believes BAuto is prioritising Kia's growth, with the Kia Sportage launch slated for Dec 2024, potentially contributing c.5k units p.a. Future launches may include the Carens MPV and Seltos SUV. Notably, XPeng recorded 119 monthly sales in Oct, following its Aug 2024 launch.
展望未來，Maybank認爲BAuto正在優先考慮起亞的增長，起亞Sportage的發佈計劃於2024年12月，可能每年貢獻約0.5萬輛。未來的推出可能包括Carens MPV和Seltos SUV。值得注意的是，小鵬在2024年8月推出後，10月的銷量爲119輛。
Strong fundamental despite short term headwinds
The house remains optimistic about BAuto's solid fundamentals despite short-term industry headwinds, particularly in the crowded mass premium segment. Over the medium term, BAuto aims to replicate Mazda's success with Kia through new model launches. The addition of Deepal's distributorship, alongside XPeng's first model launch in Aug 2024, is expected to enhance
its portfolio, partially offsetting normalising Mazda sales, with no major new Mazda models anticipated until 2026.
儘管短期面臨風險，但基本面強勁
儘管短期行業面臨挑戰，尤其是在擁擠的中高端市場板塊，該機構對BAuto堅實的基本面保持樂觀。在中期內，BAuto的目標是通過推出新車型，複製馬自達在起亞上取得的成功。深寶代理權的增加，加上小鵬汽車2024年8月首款車型的推出，預計會增強該公司的產品組合
其產品組合料將部分抵消馬自達銷售的正常化，因爲預計直到2026年都不會有重大的新馬自達車型推出。
