1 Canadian Energy Stock to Buy Confidently and 1 to Avoid for Now
1 Canadian Energy Stock to Buy Confidently and 1 to Avoid for Now
Canada's energy market is lucrative. The country has the fourth-largest global supply of proven oil reserves and the third-largest reserves of uranium. Moreover, solar and wind are some of the fastest-growing sources of energy. Canada is also the largest exporter of oil and gas to the United States. Thus, you see a variety of energy stocks on the TSX, from companies that extract oil and gas to gas utilities to gas pipeline companies that transmit to the United States, to green energy companies.
加拿大的能源市場很有吸引力。該國擁有全球第四大的已探明石油儲量和第三大的鈾儲量。此外,太陽能和風能是增長最快的能源來源之一。加拿大也是向美國最大的石油和天然氣出口國。因此,在TSX上可以看到各種各樣的能源股票,從開採石油和天然氣的公司到燃氣公用事業公司,再到輸送至美國的燃氣管道公司,以及綠色能源公司。
However, not all energy stocks are a good buying option. The energy sector is capital intensive and only a few have the cost advantage to make you buy them confidently.
然而,並非所有能源股票都是一個不錯的買入選擇。能源領域的資本投入很大,只有少數具有成本優勢,可以讓您信心十足地買入它們。
A Canadian energy stock to buy
要買入的一支加拿大能源股
Energy infrastructure companies have the advantage of earning toll money for transmitting oil and gas between countries and provinces. However, they carry a significant risk of cost overruns as it is increasingly difficult to build pipelines due to environmental concerns and approvals.
能源基礎設施公司具有賺取輸送油氣收費的優勢,但它們承擔着重大的成本超支風險,因爲由於環保和獲批方面的擔憂,建設管道變得日益困難。
TC Energy stock
TC Energy 股票
TC Energy (TSX:TRP) has an advantage. Its Coastal GasLink pipeline is the first direct pipeline that opens Canada's liquified natural gas (LNG) to the world. North American LNG exports to Europe and Asia are a huge market to tap. However, the Coastal GasLink pipeline went into significant cost overruns from the initial estimate of $6.6 billion to the actual cost of $14.5 billion. TC Energy wrote off billions in losses that pulled its stock price down in 2022 and 2023.
tc energy(TSX: TRP)擁有優勢。其Coastal GasLink管道是第一條直接將加拿大的液化天然氣(LNG)開放給世界的管道。北美液化天然氣出口到歐洲和亞洲是一個巨大的市場可以開發。然而,Coastal GasLink管道的造價從最初的66億美元顯著超支到實際成本達到145億美元。tc energy因損失數十億而轉爲赤字,導致其股價在2022年和2023年下跌。
Now is the time to reap the benefits of this natural gas pipeline. To extract more efficiencies and value, the company also spun off its oil pipeline business and named it South Bow. TC Energy's share price has picked up since July as interest rate cuts began and the spin-off materialized in October. The outlook is bright for TC Energy as US president-elect Donald Trump favours oil and gas energy resources. Faster approval of projects could be on the cards, which could help TC Energy accelerate the execution of high-value projects and tap LNG exports.
現在正是收穫這條天然氣管道的好時機。爲了提高效益和價值,該公司還將其石油管道業務剝離並命名爲South Bow。隨着利率下調的開始和在十月份實現剝離,tc energy的股價自7月以來有所反彈。特朗普等待上任的美國總統看好石油和天然氣能源資源。項目更快獲批可能是有可能的,這可能有助於tc energy加快高價值項目的執行並開發液化天然氣出口。
Debt is a risk for TC Energy, but the company expects to bring the debt to its upper target limit of 4.8 times its EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) in the long term. It expects to grow its dividends by 3-5% for the coming three years and by 5% later as it taps the LNG export market.
債務對tc energy構成風險,但公司預計長期將債務帶到其EBITDA的上限,即4.8倍。該公司預計未來三年將將股息增長3-5%,後期將增長5%,因爲其進軍液化天然氣出口市場。
A Canadian energy stock to avoid
一個要避開的加拿大能源股
While TC Energy is focusing on high-value projects, Algonquin Power & Utilities (TSX:AQN) is offloading assets. It has sold its renewable energy business for $2.5 billion to focus on regulated energy services that have stable cash flows. The restructuring and efforts to lower the debt are ongoing.
儘管tc energy專注於高價值項目,阿爾貢金電力與公用事業(tsx:AQN)正在出售資產。該公司已將可再生能源業務售出25億美元,專注於穩定現金流的受監管能源服務。重組和降低債務的努力正在進行。
The company is still trying to survive and has yet to show any signs of growth. In the third quarter, AQN even reduced its dividend per share by 40%, after slashing them by 40% in 2023. Two sharp dividend cuts in two years, a $7.5 billion debt, and a $5.1 billion market capitalization show that debt is still a concern.
該公司仍在努力生存,尚未顯示任何增長跡象。在第三季度,阿爾貢金電力與公用事業甚至將每股股息削減40%,在2023年將其削減40%。兩年內兩次大幅削減股息,75億美元的債務以及51億美元的市值顯示債務仍然是一個問題。
Algonquin Power & Utilities stock has lost over 60% of its value in the past two years. And the fall is for the weak fundamentals. Even a 5.4% yield does not make it look attractive, as this dividend is at risk. Moreover, Trump could cut subsidies for renewable energy, making them less attractive.
阿爾貢金電力與公用事業的股票在過去兩年中已經貶值超過60%。下跌源於基本面疲軟。即使每股股息爲5.4%,也不算吸引人,因爲這種股息面臨風險。此外,特朗普可能會削減對可再生能源的補貼,使其變得不太吸引人。
Final takeaway
最終總結
A sector may be attractive, but not all stocks in the industry are attractive. Whenever you are bullish on a sector, make sure to also read about the companies that are well-placed to tap that growth.
一個板塊可能具有吸引力,但行業內並非所有股票都吸引人。每當您看好某個行業時,確保也了解那些能夠充分利用增長的公司。