We Think Avery Dennison (NYSE:AVY) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
We Think Avery Dennison (NYSE:AVY) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Avery Dennison Corporation (NYSE:AVY) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
由伯克希爾·哈撒韋的查理·芒格支持的外部基金經理陸立頗爲坦率地表示:「最大的投資風險不在於價格的波動,而在於你是否將遭受永久性資本損失。」當你考慮一家公司的風險程度時,自然要看一下其資產負債表,因爲在業務倒閉時通常會涉及債務。重要的是,艾利丹尼森公司(NYSE:AVY)確實存在債務。但這種債務會讓股東們擔心嗎?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
當一家企業無法輕鬆用自由現金流或以有吸引力的價格籌集資本來履行這些義務時,債務和其他負債對企業變得有風險。 資本主義的一個重要組成部分是'創造性破壞'的過程,失敗的企業會被它們的銀行家無情地清算。 然而,更常見(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,一家公司必須以低廉的股價稀釋股東,只是爲了控制債務。 當然,債務的好處在於它通常代表廉價資本,特別是當債務取代公司以高回報率再投資的稀釋時。 當我們審查債務水平時,我們首先考慮現金和債務水平。
What Is Avery Dennison's Debt?
艾利丹尼森的債務是多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Avery Dennison had debt of US$3.16b at the end of September 2024, a reduction from US$3.31b over a year. However, it does have US$250.6m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$2.91b.
下面這張圖片可供您點擊查看更詳細信息,顯示艾利丹尼森在2024年9月底的債務爲31.6億美元,比去年的33.1億美元有所減少。然而,它確實有25060萬美元的現金來抵消這筆債務,導致淨債務約爲29.1億美元。
A Look At Avery Dennison's Liabilities
艾利丹尼森的負債情況
According to the last reported balance sheet, Avery Dennison had liabilities of US$3.35b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$2.71b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of US$250.6m and US$1.57b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total US$4.23b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
根據最近披露的資產負債表,艾利丹尼森有33.5億美元的負債需要在12個月內償還,27.1億美元的負債需要在12個月後償還。另一方面,它有25060萬美元的現金和15.7億美元的應收賬款需要在一年內償還。因此,其負債總額比其現金和短期應收賬款的總和高42.3億美元。
This deficit isn't so bad because Avery Dennison is worth a massive US$16.4b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
這個赤字並不嚴重,因爲艾利丹尼森價值164億美元,因此可能能夠籌集到足夠的資金來彌補其資產負債表,如果有需要的話。但我們肯定希望密切關注其債務帶來的風險是否過大。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
我們通過將公司的淨債務與其息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)相除,並計算其息稅前利潤(EBIT)如何覆蓋其利息費用(利息覆蓋率)來衡量公司的債務負擔相對於其盈利能力。因此,我們同時考慮債務的絕對數量以及所支付的利率。
With a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.1, Avery Dennison uses debt artfully but responsibly. And the fact that its trailing twelve months of EBIT was 9.6 times its interest expenses harmonizes with that theme. We note that Avery Dennison grew its EBIT by 25% in the last year, and that should make it easier to pay down debt, going forward. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Avery Dennison can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
根據債務與EBITDA比率爲2.1,艾利丹尼森巧妙而負責地使用債務。事實上,其過去十二個月的EBIt是其利息開支的9.6倍,與此相一致。我們注意到艾利丹尼森去年EBIt增長了25%,這應該使其更容易償還債務。資產負債表顯然是您分析債務時應關注的重點。但最終,業務的未來盈利能力將決定艾利丹尼森是否能夠隨着時間強化其資產負債表。因此,如果您想了解專業人士的看法,您可能會發現分析師盈利預測的這份免費報告很有趣。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Avery Dennison recorded free cash flow worth 56% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
最後,一家公司只能用真金白銀來償還債務,而不是用會計利潤。因此,我們清楚地需要調查EBIt是否導致相應的自由現金流。在最近的三年裏,艾利丹尼森記錄的自由現金流值相當於其EBIt的56%,考慮到自由現金流不包括利息和稅收,這在正常範圍內。這份自由現金流使公司有能力在適當時期償還債務。
Our View
我們的觀點
Happily, Avery Dennison's impressive EBIT growth rate implies it has the upper hand on its debt. And the good news does not stop there, as its interest cover also supports that impression! Taking all this data into account, it seems to us that Avery Dennison takes a pretty sensible approach to debt. That means they are taking on a bit more risk, in the hope of boosting shareholder returns. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Avery Dennison that you should be aware of.
艾利丹尼森令人印象深刻的EBIt增長率表明它在債務方面具有優勢。而好消息還不止於此,因爲它的利息覆蓋率也支持這種印象!綜合考慮所有這些數據,我們認爲艾利丹尼森對待債務採取了非常明智的方式。這意味着他們承擔了更多風險,希望能提高股東回報。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中了解到很多關於債務的信息。然而,並非所有的投資風險都在資產負債表中——遠非如此。例如,我們已經發現了艾利丹尼森的一個警告信號,您應該注意。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
如果在所有這些之後,您更感興趣的是具有堅實資產負債表的快速增長公司,那麼不要拖延,查看我們的淨現金增長股票列表。
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