Wall Street's December Surprise: What Investors Need to Know Now
Wall Street's December Surprise: What Investors Need to Know Now
Something to be thankful for?Major U.S. indices have advanced between 18% to 27% year-to-date. The S&P 500 Index scaled its 52nd record high this year on Tuesday, Nov. 26. Bulls and Bears are locking horns as S&P 500 is on track to deliver 20% plus year-to-date gains for the second time.
美國主要指數今年迄今已上漲了18%至27%。標準普爾500指數在本年度週二11月26日迎來了第52次創紀錄的新高。隨着標準普爾500指數有望第二次實現年初至今增長超過20%，多空雙方正在激烈對抗。
What Happened: Markets have been under pressure only once in the month of December over the last 95 years, according to the data highlighted by Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group LLC.
突發事件：根據卡森集團市場首席策略師瑞安·德特里克（Ryan Detrick）提供的數據，過去95年中，12月份市場只有一次承壓情況。
Thanksgiving falls on the fourth Thursday of November every year, addressing the next month of December, Detrick shared the data and said "Something to be thankful for?", in an X (formerly Twitter). The data from 1928 to 2023 showed that September has been the worst 13 times while April is the worst month this year with a 4% drop.
感恩節每年都在11月的第四個星期四舉行，而下一個月即12月，德特里克在X（原Twitter）上分享數據並表示「值得感恩的事情？」。從1928年到2023年的數據顯示，9月份13次居首位，而今年最差的月份是4%的下跌的4月。
Something to be thankful for?
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 28, 2024
December has been the worst month of the year for stocks only once going back 95 years (2018 and the Fed policy mistake).
Worst month this year has been the 4% drop in April. pic.twitter.com/2ThL3DwD7x
值得感恩的事情？
—瑞安·德特里克，CMt（@RyanDetrick）2024年11月28日
過去95年中，12月份只有一次成爲股票最差的月份（2018年和聯儲政策失誤）。
今年最糟糕的一個月是4%的下跌在4月份。pic.twitter.com/2ThL3DwD7x
Also read: GOP Megadonor Ken Griffin Slashes Citadel's Palantir Stake By 91%, Bets Big On Nvidia As Jensen Huang-Led Company Rises Over 180% In 2024
另請查閱：共和黨大佬肯·格里芬將Citadel的palantir持股削減91%，而在英偉達上大舉押注，因黃仲甫領導的公司在2024年上漲超過180%。
On the other hand, David Cox, CMT, CFA, portfolio manager at Raymond James Ltd., in an X Post highlighted the likelihood of an upcoming to the investors, saying "If you want to sidestep a decline, watch the trend..."
另一方面，雷蒙德詹姆斯有限公司的投資組合經理David Cox，CMt，CFA，在一篇X發帖中強調了將來可能會出現的機會，稱"如果您想避開下跌，請關注趨勢..."
The 13/34-week Exponential Moving Average signals a bullish market trend when the 13-week EMA line is above the 34-week EMA line and a bullish crossover results in a market correction. Predicting an upcoming crossover through his chart Cox said that "there will be another red circle some day", The red circle in his chart represents a bullish crossover.
13/34周指數移動平均線信號表明，當13周EMA線位於34周EMA線上方時，市場趨勢看好，而看多交叉會導致市場修正。通過他的圖表預測即將發生的交叉，Cox稱"總有一天會出現另一個紅圈"，他圖表中的紅圈代表看多交叉。
According to a note by CMGWealth, the 13/34-week EMA analysis is a "simple, tactical trend indicator that has historically captured the cyclical bull and bear market trends."
根據CMGWealth的說明，13/34周EMA分析是一個"簡單的戰術趨勢指標，歷史上捕捉了週期性的牛市和熊市趨勢。"
again, look at how much easier we can make it on ourselves... time frame matters, if you want to sidestep a decline, watch the trend... look at these 13/34-week EMA #bearish crossovers... they help you remove emotion, and stay focused... there will be another red circle some day pic.twitter.com/kpAXx8F5jX
— David Cox, CMT, CFA (@DavidCoxRJ) November 27, 2024
再次，看看我們可以讓自己更輕鬆... 時間框架是重要的，如果您想避免下跌，請關注趨勢...研究這些13/34周EMA看空交叉...它們有助於消除情緒，保持專注...總有一天會再次出現紅圈。
— David Cox，CMt，CFA (@DavidCoxRJ) 2024年11月27日
Why It Matters: Markets have been trading higher than their pre-election levels and the expectations of a further 25 basis point rate cut in December rose to just 66.3%, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. This indicates a further upside in the stock markets.
重要性在於：市場已經比選舉前的水平高出，並且根據芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具，人們對於12月進一步減息25個點子的期望僅升至66.3％，這表明股市還有進一步上漲的空間。
The S&P 500 index has risen 26.48% year-to-date to basis. Whereas, the Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, and Russell 200 Index have returned 25.39%, 18.58%, and 20.54%, respectively. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) was up by 26.7% and the Invesco QQQ ETF (NYSE:QQQ) advanced by 23.39%, according to Benzinga Pro data.
標普500指數截至目前已上漲26.48％。而納斯達克100、道瓊斯和羅素200指數分別回報了25.39％、18.58％和20.54％。根據彭博專業數據，標普500ETF信託基金（NYSE:SPY）上漲了26.7％，景順QQQ ETF（NYSE:QQQ）上漲了23.39％。
Read next: JD Vance's Investment Playbook Has Bitcoin And ETFs: Here's What Else The VP-Elect Is Betting On
閱讀下一篇：JD範斯的投資指南書中涉及比特幣和etf：除此之外，這位副總裁還在押注什麼
