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Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding Co., Ltd (SHSE:601607) Is Going Strong But Fundamentals Appear To Be Mixed : Is There A Clear Direction For The Stock?

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding Co., Ltd (SHSE:601607) Is Going Strong But Fundamentals Appear To Be Mixed : Is There A Clear Direction For The Stock?

上海醫藥控股股份有限公司(SHSE:601607)走勢強勁,但基本面似乎存在混雜信號:股票走向是否明朗?
Simply Wall St ·  2024/12/02 20:53

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding's (SHSE:601607) stock is up by a considerable 13% over the past three months. However, we wonder if the company's inconsistent financials would have any adverse impact on the current share price momentum. In this article, we decided to focus on Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding's ROE.

上海醫藥(SHSE:601607)的股票在過去三個月上漲了相當可觀的13%。但是,我們想知道公司不一致的財務狀況是否會對當前的股價走勢產生不利影響。本文中,我們決定重點關注上海醫藥的roe。

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors' money. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

股東權益回報率(ROE)是檢驗公司增加其價值和管理投資者資金有效性的測試。簡而言之,ROE顯示每個美元的利潤與其股東的投資有關。

How Is ROE Calculated?

淨資產收益率怎麼計算?

The formula for return on equity is:

權益回報率的計算公式是:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

淨資產收益率 = 淨利潤(來自持續經營) ÷ 股東權益

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding is:

因此,基於上述公式,上海醫藥的roe爲:

6.3% = CN¥5.2b ÷ CN¥83b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

6.3% = CN¥52億 ÷ CN¥830億(基於截至2024年9月的過去十二個月)。

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. One way to conceptualize this is that for each CN¥1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made CN¥0.06 in profit.

『收益』指的是公司過去一年的收入。可以從另一個角度來理解,對於每1元人民幣的股東資本,該公司將獲得0.06元人民幣的利潤。

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company's earnings growth potential. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

我們已經意識到,ROE作爲公司未來盈利的有效衡量值。根據公司重新投資或「保留」這些利潤的程度,以及公司有效地運用這些利潤的程度,我們就能評估公司的盈利增長潛力。假設其他所有因素保持不變,ROE和利潤保留越高,增長率就會越高,相比於沒有這些特點的公司,公司的增長率就會更高。

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding's Earnings Growth And 6.3% ROE

上海醫藥的盈利增長和6.3% roe

On the face of it, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding's ROE is not much to talk about. Yet, a closer study shows that the company's ROE is similar to the industry average of 6.7%. Having said that, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding's net income growth over the past five years is more or less flat. Bear in mind, the company's ROE is not very high. Hence, this provides some context to the flat earnings growth seen by the company.

乍一看,上海醫藥的 roe 並不算特別出色。然而,經過更深入的研究發現,該公司的 roe 與行業平均水平6.7%相似。話雖如此,上海醫藥在過去五年的淨利潤增長基本持平。請記住,該公司的 roe 並不算很高。因此,這爲公司所經歷的盈利增長平穩提供了一些背景信息。

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding's reported growth was a little less than the industry growth of2.0% over the last few years.

接下來,與行業的淨利潤增長進行比較,我們發現上海醫藥報告的增長略低於過去幾年行業2.0%的增長。

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SHSE:601607 Past Earnings Growth December 3rd 2024
SHSE:601607過去的盈利增長 2024年12月3日

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

盈利增長是股票估值的一個重要因素。投資者需要判斷的下一個問題是,預期的盈利增長或缺乏盈利增長是否已經反映在股票價格中。這將幫助他們判斷股票的未來是光明還是黯淡。預期盈利增長的一個良好指標是市盈率,它判斷市場願意爲股票支付的價格,基於其盈利前景。因此,你可能需要檢查上海醫藥相對於其行業板塊是高市盈率還是低市盈率。

Is Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

上海醫藥是否有效利用其留存收益?

Despite having a normal three-year median payout ratio of 38% (implying that the company keeps 62% of its income) over the last three years, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding has seen a negligible amount of growth in earnings as we saw above. So there could be some other explanation in that regard. For instance, the company's business may be deteriorating.

儘管在過去三年中,上海醫藥的三年平均分紅派息比例爲38%(這意味着公司保留62%的收入),但我們如上所述看到其盈利幾乎沒有增長。因此在這方面可能還有其他解釋。比如,公司的業務可能正在惡化。

Additionally, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years, which means that the company's management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 38%. Still, forecasts suggest that Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding's future ROE will rise to 8.0% even though the the company's payout ratio is not expected to change by much.

此外,上海醫藥在至少十年的時間內支付了分紅,這意味着公司的管理層決心支付分紅,即使這意味着幾乎沒有盈利增長。根據最新的分析師估計,我們發現公司未來三年的分紅派息比例預計將保持在38%。儘管公司的分紅派息比例預計變化不大,但預測顯示上海醫藥未來的roe將上升至8.0%。

Summary

總結

On the whole, we feel that the performance shown by Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding can be open to many interpretations. While the company does have a high rate of reinvestment, the low ROE means that all that reinvestment is not reaping any benefit to its investors, and moreover, its having a negative impact on the earnings growth. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

總體而言,我們認爲上海醫藥所展示的表現可以有多種解讀。雖然該公司的再投資率很高,但是低roe意味着所有的再投資並未給投資者帶來任何收益,此外,它對盈利增長也產生了負面影響。話雖如此,我們研究了最新的分析師預測,並發現儘管公司在過去縮減了盈利,分析師預計其未來盈利將會增長。這些分析師的預期是基於行業的普遍期望,還是公司的基本面?點擊這裏訪問我們針對該公司的分析師預測頁面。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章是一般性質的。我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,使用公正的方法,我們的文章並非意在提供財務建議。這並不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,並且不考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您帶來基於基礎數據驅動的長期聚焦分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St對提及的任何股票都沒有持倉。

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