Tom Lee Predicts S&P 500 To Reach 6,300, Bitcoin To Break $100K By Year-End, Says Trump's Tariffs Can Be Effective 'Negotiating Tools'
Tom Lee Predicts S&P 500 To Reach 6,300, Bitcoin To Break $100K By Year-End, Says Trump's Tariffs Can Be Effective 'Negotiating Tools'
On Monday, Tom Lee, Chief Investment Officer at Fundstrat Capital, predicted that the S&P 500 tracked by SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) will rally to 6,300 by year-end, citing favorable market conditions and historical patterns that point to continued strength in December.
星期一,Fundstrat Capital的首席投資官Tom Lee預測,由SPDR S&P 500 (紐交所: SPY)跟蹤的標普500指數將在年底前上漲至6,300點,理由是有利的市場條件和歷史模式表明12月份的強勢會持續。
What Happened: Speaking on CNBC's "Squawk Box," Lee outlined four key factors supporting his bullish outlook: strong December seasonality, falling 10-year Treasury yields, contrarian sentiment indicators, and dual market support from both Federal Reserve and presidential policies.
發生了什麼:Lee在CNBC的"Squawk Box"節目中提到支持他對市場看好的四個關鍵因素:強勁的12月季節性,10年期國債收益率下降,逆向情緒指標,以及聯邦儲備和總統政策雙重支持。
"December has been up 100% of the time when the market is up more than 10% in the first half of the year during election years," Lee said, emphasizing the historical precedent. He noted that the 10-year Treasury yield's retreat to 4.1% creates conditions favorable for multiple expansion.
"當選年上半年市場上漲超過10%時,12月份100%的時間是上漲的," Lee說道,強調歷史先例。他指出,10年期國債收益率下降至4.1%創造了有利於多重擴張的條件。
Lee's optimistic view extends to cryptocurrency markets, where he projects Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) will surpass $100,000 by year-end, with the potential to reach $250,000 by the end of 2025. His cryptocurrency forecast aligns with recent market momentum, as Bitcoin trades near $95,870, despite recent volatility.
Lee樂觀的看法延伸到了加密貨幣市場,他預測比特幣 (CRYPTO: BTC) 將在年底時超過10萬美元,並在2025年底前有望達到25萬美元。他的加密貨幣預測與最近的市場走勢一致,比特幣現在交易接近95,870美元,儘管最近有波動。
Why It Matters: The strategist's S&P 500 target stands between competing Wall Street forecasts. Bank of America Securities recently projected the index will reach 6,666 by the end of 2025, representing a 10% increase from current levels. The S&P 500 closed at 6,047.15 on Monday, marking continued momentum in the broader market rally.
爲什麼重要:這位策略師的標普500指數目標與華爾街競爭對手的預測處於中間。美國銀行證券最近預測該指數將在2025年底達到6,666點,比目前水平上漲10%。週一,標普500指數收於6,047.15點,標誌着更廣泛市場的持續勢頭。
Lee addressed concerns about proposed tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump's administration, suggesting they could serve as effective negotiating tools without significantly hampering corporate profits.
Lee回應了關於當選總統特朗普政府提議的關稅的擔憂,表示它們可能作爲有效的談判工具,而不會顯著損害企業利潤。
"It's a reminder that carrying a big stick can be effective. Tariffs have proven to be useful negotiating tools, leading to proactive responses from other countries. Overall, I don't believe the administration would pursue policies that harm corporate profits, so the net result will likely be pro-business," Lee said.
"這是一個可以行得通的提醒。關稅已被證明是有用的談判工具,導致其他國家做出積極響應。總的來說,我相信政府不會制定有損企業利潤的政策,因此最終結果很可能是利於業務的。" Lee說道。
"The Fed's goal is to reduce capital costs for homeowners, mortgages, and small businesses," Lee said, explaining how lower yields could benefit the broader economy despite concerns about potential economic weakness.
李說:「聯儲局的目標是降低房主、抵押貸款和小企業的資本成本,儘管可能存在對潛在經濟疲軟的擔憂,但更低的收益率有助於更廣泛的經濟。」
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