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We Think Sun Hung Kai Properties (HKG:16) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

We Think Sun Hung Kai Properties (HKG:16) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

我們認爲新鴻基地產(HKG:16)正冒着一些債務風險
Simply Wall St ·  2024/12/03 12:29

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited (HKG:16) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

有人說,作爲投資者,波動性,而非債務,是思考風險的最佳方式,但禾倫·巴菲特曾著名地說過:'波動性遠非風險的同義詞。' 所以聰明的錢知道,債務——通常與破產有關——是在評估一家公司的風險時非常重要的因素。重要的是,香港新鴻基地產有限公司(HKG:16)確實存在負債。但更重要的問題是:這些負債帶來了多少風險?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

債務何時會變得危險?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

債務是幫助企業增長的工具,但如果一家公司無力償還貸款人,那麼它就處於他們的掌控之中。最終,如果公司無法履行法律義務償還債務,股東可能會一無所獲。然而,更頻繁(但仍然代價高昂)的情況是,公司必須以抄底價格發行股票,永久稀釋股東權益,就爲了修復其資產負債表。不過,通過替代稀釋,債務可以成爲需要資金投資於高回報增長的企業的極佳工具。當我們檢查債務水平時,我們首先考慮現金和債務水平的結合。

How Much Debt Does Sun Hung Kai Properties Carry?

新鴻基地產攜帶了多少債務?

As you can see below, Sun Hung Kai Properties had HK$127.1b of debt, at June 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. On the flip side, it has HK$16.9b in cash leading to net debt of about HK$110.2b.

如您所見,截至2024年6月,新鴻基地產的債務爲1271億港元,與前一年大致相同。您可以點擊圖表查看更多細節。另一方面,它有169億港元的現金,導致淨負債約爲1102億港元。

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SEHK:16 Debt to Equity History December 3rd 2024
SEHK:16債務對股本歷史 2024年12月3日

A Look At Sun Hung Kai Properties' Liabilities

審視新鴻基地產的負債情況

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Sun Hung Kai Properties had liabilities of HK$62.0b falling due within a year, and liabilities of HK$145.0b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had HK$16.9b in cash and HK$16.7b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total HK$173.5b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

從最新的資產負債表來看,新鴻基地產的短期負債爲620億港元,長期負債爲1450億港元。抵消這些負債的是169億港元的現金和167億港元的應收賬款,這些應收款將在12個月內到期。因此,負債總額比現金和短期應收賬款的總和多出1735億港元。

This is a mountain of leverage even relative to its gargantuan market capitalization of HK$223.1b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

即使相對於其巨大的市場市值2231億港元來說,這也是一座龐大的槓桿。如果債權人要求它加強資產負債表,股東可能會面臨嚴重的稀釋。

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

我們使用兩個主要的比率來告訴我們相對於收益的債務水平。第一個是淨債務除以利息、稅、折舊和攤銷前利潤(EBITDA),而第二個是其利潤前利息和稅(EBIT)覆蓋其利息費用的次數(或其利息覆蓋率,簡稱)。因此,我們考慮與折舊和攤銷費用相關的盈利以及沒有相關費用的盈利相對於債務水平。

With net debt to EBITDA of 3.8 Sun Hung Kai Properties has a fairly noticeable amount of debt. But the high interest coverage of 7.7 suggests it can easily service that debt. Sadly, Sun Hung Kai Properties's EBIT actually dropped 3.7% in the last year. If earnings continue on that decline then managing that debt will be difficult like delivering hot soup on a unicycle. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Sun Hung Kai Properties can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

新鴻基地產的淨債務與EBITDA的比率爲3.8,這表明其債務相當明顯。但7.7的高利息覆蓋率表明它能夠輕鬆償還這筆債務。遺憾的是,新鴻基地產的EBIT在去年實際上下降了3.7%。如果收益持續下降,那麼管理這筆債務將變得困難,就像騎獨輪車送熱湯一樣。當分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是一個明顯的起點。但最終,業務的未來盈利能力將決定新鴻基地產是否能夠隨着時間的推移加強其資產負債表。因此,如果你關注未來,可以查看這份顯示分析師利潤預測的免費報告。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Sun Hung Kai Properties produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 61% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

最後,儘管稅務機關可能熱愛會計利潤,但債權人只接受冷硬的現金。因此,我們總是檢查EBIT中有多少轉化爲自由現金流。在過去三年中,新鴻基地產產生了強勁的自由現金流,佔EBIT的61%,大約是我們預期的水平。這筆冷硬現金意味着它可以在需要時減少債務。

Our View

我們的觀點

While Sun Hung Kai Properties's net debt to EBITDA does give us pause, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and interest cover suggest it can stay on top of its debt load. We think that Sun Hung Kai Properties's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example - Sun Hung Kai Properties has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

雖然新鴻基地產的淨債務與EBITDA的比例讓我們有所顧慮,但其EBIT轉換爲自由現金流和利息覆蓋率表明它能夠應對債務負擔。我們認爲新鴻基地產的債務確實使其略顯風險,考慮到上述數據點後。雖然這不一定是壞事,因爲槓桿可以提高股本回報,但這是需要注意的事項。在分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是關注的重點。但最終,每家公司都可能存在資產負債表之外的風險。例如——新鴻基地產有1個警告信號,我們認爲你應該注意。

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

如果您有興趣投資那些能夠在沒有債務負擔的情況下增長利潤的業務,請查看這個自由名單,其中列出了在資產負債表上有淨現金的成長型企業。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有反饋?對內容有疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至 editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇來自Simply Wall St的文章是一般性的。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,採用無偏見的方法,我們的文章並不旨在提供財務建議。它不構成對任何股票的買入或賣出建議,也未考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您提供以基本數據驅動的長期分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St在提到的任何股票中均沒有持倉。

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