Mohamed El-Erian Calls Michel Barnier's Ouster An Example Of 'Messy Politics,' Notes Greek And French Bonds Achieving Historic Parity
Mohamed El-Erian Calls Michel Barnier's Ouster An Example Of 'Messy Politics,' Notes Greek And French Bonds Achieving Historic Parity
Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz's Chief Economic Advisor, warned on Wednesday about the growing intersection of political and economic challenges in France following Prime Minister Michel Barnier's historic no-confidence ouster, even as Greek bonds achieved parity with French sovereign debt for the first time since the Eurozone crisis.
穆罕默德·埃爾-埃裏安,安聯的首席經濟顧問,週三警告稱,在總理米歇爾·巴爾尼耶歷史性的罷免信投票解僱後,法國面臨越來越嚴重的政治和經濟挑戰交集,即使希臘債券首次與法國主權債務實現平價,這是自歐元區危機以來的首次。
What Happened: "What we are seeing in France these days is yet another example of messy politics contaminating economics," El-Erian wrote on X, distinguishing the current situation from Britain's 2022 "Liz Truss moment" due to France's Eurozone backing and different global financial context.
發生了什麼:"我們在法國看到的這些日子是混亂政治影響經濟的又一個例子," 埃爾-埃裏安在X上寫道,他將當前局勢與英國2022年的"莉茲·特拉斯時刻"區分開來,原因在於法國的歐元區支持和不同的全球金融環境。
The political upheaval comes as Greek 10-year sovereign bonds closed their yield gap against French bonds in late November, trading below 3% – a remarkable turnaround from the peak of the Eurozone crisis when Greek bonds yielded 40 percentage points more than French debt.
政治動盪發生在希臘10年期主權債券在11月底關閉與法國債券的收益差距,交易利率低於3%——這與歐元區危機巔峯時希臘債券的收益比法國債務高出40個百分點的情況相比,實屬顯著的逆轉。
Bank of America analyst Athanasios Vamvakidis attributes Greece's resurgence to fiscal discipline and economic reforms, with the country expecting a primary budget surplus of 2.4% of GDP this year, reported Euronews. Meanwhile, according to Goldman Sachs, France faces mounting pressure over its rising debt-to-GDP ratio, which is projected to reach 118% by 2027.
美國銀行分析師阿薩納斯·萬瓦基迪斯將希臘的復甦歸因於財務紀律和經濟改革,預計該國今年的初級預算盈餘將達到GDP的2.4%,《歐洲新聞》報道。與此同時,高盛表示,法國面臨着日益加重的債務與GDP比率壓力,預計到2027年將達到118%。
Why It Matters: Barnier's removal followed parliamentary opposition to his proposed €60 billion spending-cut package, with National Rally leader Marine Le Pen calling the budget "toxic for the French."
重要性:巴尼耶的辭職源於國會對其提出的600億歐元削減預算方案的反對,民族匯合黨的領導人瑪麗娜·勒龐稱該預算對法國來說是"有毒的"。
The political stalemate threatens to complicate France's fiscal consolidation efforts as Eurostat forecasts French economic growth to slow to 0.8% in 2025, while Greece is projected to grow by 2.3%.
政治僵局威脅到法國的財政整合努力,因爲歐洲統計局預測法國經濟增長將在2025年放緩至0.8%,而希臘預計增長2.3%。
President Emmanuel Macron is expected to name a new prime minister, though the political deadlock in the Assembly will likely persist until new elections can be held in July.
預計總統埃馬紐埃爾·馬克龍將任命一位新的總理,但國會的政治僵局可能會持續,直到7月舉行新選舉。
El-Erian noted that while France benefits from Eurozone institutional support, the current situation "will undermine growth and raise borrowing costs."
埃爾-埃裏安指出,儘管法國受益於歐元區的制度支持,但當前的情況將"削弱增長並提高借貸成本。"
Investors can track the market's response to political turmoil via the iShares MSCI France ETF (NYSE:EWQ), offering focused exposure to the French economy. The ETF's top holdings feature LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton (OTC:LVMHF), TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE), and Schneider Electric (OTC:SBGSY).
投資者可以通過法國etf-ishares(紐交所:EWQ)追蹤市場對政治動盪的反應,該etf提供對法國經濟的重點曝光。該etf的主要持股包括LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton(場外交易:LVMHF),TotalEnergies(紐交所:TTE)和Schneider Electric(場外交易:SBGSY)。
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圖片來自Shutterstock。
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