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Is MercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI) A Risky Investment?

Is MercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI) A Risky Investment?

MercadoLibre(納斯達克:MELI)是一項風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  2024/12/05 09:12

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that MercadoLibre, Inc. (NASDAQ:MELI) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

傳奇基金經理李錄(查理·芒格支持)曾經說過:「最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是您是否會遭受永久性的資本損失。」 當您評估風險時,考慮一家公司的資產負債表是很自然的,因爲債務往往會導致企業破產。 我們注意到MercadoLibre, Inc.(納斯達克:MELI)的資產負債表上確實有債務。 但更重要的問題是:這筆債務帶來了多少風險?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

爲什麼債務會帶來風險?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

一般來說,當一家公司無法輕鬆償還債務時,債務才會成爲一個真正的問題,無論是通過增加資本還是通過自身現金流。資本主義的一個必要部分是「創造性毀滅」過程,失敗的企業將被銀行無情清算。然而,更頻繁(但仍然昂貴)發生的情況是一家公司必須以極低價格發行股票,永久性地稀釋股東的股權,以維持其資產負債表。話雖如此,最常見的情況是一家公司合理管理債務,從而使其受益。考慮一家公司的債務水平時的第一步是將其現金和債務一起考慮。

What Is MercadoLibre's Net Debt?

MercadoLibre的淨債務是多少?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2024 MercadoLibre had US$5.27b of debt, an increase on US$4.40b, over one year. However, its balance sheet shows it holds US$6.67b in cash, so it actually has US$1.41b net cash.

您可以點擊下面的圖表查看歷史數據,但它顯示截至2024年9月,MercadoLibre的債務爲52.7億美元,較一年前的44億美元增加。 然而,其資產負債表顯示它持有66.7億美元的現金,因此實際上淨現金爲14.1億美元。

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NasdaqGS:MELI Debt to Equity History December 5th 2024
NasdaqGS:MELI債務與權益歷史數據 2024年12月5日

A Look At MercadoLibre's Liabilities

分析mercadolibre的負債情況

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that MercadoLibre had liabilities of US$14.3b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$4.31b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$6.67b as well as receivables valued at US$9.05b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$2.90b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

我們可以從最近的資產負債表看到,MercadoLibre有143億美元的應付債務,其中有43.1億美元將在一年內到期,43.1億美元到期超過了這個期限。 抵消這些義務,它有66.7億美元的現金以及價值90.5億美元的應收款項將在12個月內到期。 因此,其負債總額比現金和短期應收款項的組合高出29億美元。

Given MercadoLibre has a humongous market capitalization of US$97.8b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, MercadoLibre boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

考慮到MercadoLibre市值達978億美元,很難相信這些負債會構成很大威脅。 但有足夠的負債,我們肯定建議股東繼續監控資產負債表。 儘管其負債可觀,MercadoLibre擁有淨現金,因此可以說其沒有沉重的債務負擔!

But the other side of the story is that MercadoLibre saw its EBIT decline by 4.9% over the last year. If earnings continue to decline at that rate the company may have increasing difficulty managing its debt load. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if MercadoLibre can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

但事情的另一面是,MercadoLibre在過去一年中EBIt下降了4.9%。 如果收益繼續以這個速度下降,公司可能會在管理其債務負擔方面遇到越來越大的困難。 當您分析債務時,資產負債表明顯是要關注的區域。 但最終業務未來的盈利能力將決定MercadoLibre是否能夠隨着時間加強其資產負債表。 因此,如果您想了解專業人士的看法,您可能會發現這份有關分析師盈利預測的免費報告很有趣。

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. While MercadoLibre has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Over the last three years, MercadoLibre actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.

最後,公司只能用現金而不是會計利潤償還債務。 儘管MercadoLibre在資產負債表上有淨現金,但還是值得看看它將息稅前利潤(EBIT)轉化爲自由現金流的能力,以幫助我們了解其構建(或侵蝕)現金餘額的速度。 在過去三年中,MercadoLibre實際上產生的自由現金流比EBIt還多。 這種強勁的現金轉化讓我們和大衆一樣激動,就像在Daft Punk音樂會上節奏降下時那樣。

Summing Up

總之

While it is always sensible to look at a company's total liabilities, it is very reassuring that MercadoLibre has US$1.41b in net cash. And it impressed us with free cash flow of US$6.2b, being 239% of its EBIT. So is MercadoLibre's debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. Over time, share prices tend to follow earnings per share, so if you're interested in MercadoLibre, you may well want to click here to check an interactive graph of its earnings per share history.

雖然查看公司的總負債始終是明智之舉,但令人欣慰的是,mercadolibre擁有14.1億美元的淨現金。而其自由現金流爲62億美元,佔其EBIt的239%。那麼,mercadoLibre的債務是否存在風險?在我們看來似乎並非如此。隨着時間的推移,股價往往會跟隨每股收益走勢,因此如果您對mercadolibre感興趣,可能希望點擊這裏查看其每股收益歷史的交互圖表。

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

當然,如果您是那種喜歡購買沒有債務負擔的股票的投資者,那麼不要猶豫,立即發現我們獨家的淨現金增長股票列表。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章是一般性質的。我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,使用公正的方法,我們的文章並非意在提供財務建議。這並不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,並且不考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您帶來基於基礎數據驅動的長期聚焦分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St對提及的任何股票都沒有持倉。

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