To the annoyance of some shareholders, Changyou Alliance Group Limited (HKG:1039) shares are down a considerable 33% in the last month, which continues a horrid run for the company. The recent drop completes a disastrous twelve months for shareholders, who are sitting on a 52% loss during that time.
Following the heavy fall in price, Changyou Alliance Group's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.6x might make it look like a buy right now compared to the Diversified Financial industry in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/S ratios above 1.9x and even P/S above 5x are quite common. However, the P/S might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
What Does Changyou Alliance Group's Recent Performance Look Like?
For example, consider that Changyou Alliance Group's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. It might be that many expect the disappointing revenue performance to continue or accelerate, which has repressed the P/S. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for Changyou Alliance Group, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/S?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as low as Changyou Alliance Group's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the industry.
Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 28%. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 19% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 17% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.
With this in mind, we understand why Changyou Alliance Group's P/S is lower than most of its industry peers. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/S has reached a floor yet with revenue going in reverse. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as recent revenue trends are already weighing down the shares.
The Key Takeaway
Changyou Alliance Group's P/S has taken a dip along with its share price. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
It's no surprise that Changyou Alliance Group maintains its low P/S off the back of its sliding revenue over the medium-term. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in revenue isn't great enough to justify a higher P/S ratio. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it's hard to see the share price moving strongly in either direction in the near future under these circumstances.
Before you take the next step, you should know about the 2 warning signs for Changyou Alliance Group (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that we have uncovered.
If you're unsure about the strength of Changyou Alliance Group's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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