share_log

Fujian Sunner Development Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:002299) Stock Going Strong But Fundamentals Look Weak: What Implications Could This Have On The Stock?

Fujian Sunner Development Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:002299) Stock Going Strong But Fundamentals Look Weak: What Implications Could This Have On The Stock?

聖農發展有限公司(深交所代碼:002299)的股票走勢強勁,但基本面看起來較弱:這對股票可能有什麼影響?
Simply Wall St ·  12/07 18:14

Most readers would already be aware that Fujian Sunner Development's (SZSE:002299) stock increased significantly by 30% over the past three months. We, however wanted to have a closer look at its key financial indicators as the markets usually pay for long-term fundamentals, and in this case, they don't look very promising. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Fujian Sunner Development's ROE today.

大多數讀者可能已經知道,聖農發展(SZSE:002299)的股票在過去三個月內大幅上漲了30%。然而,我們想更仔細地看看其關鍵財務指標,因爲市場通常是看重長期基本面,而在這種情況下,基本面看起來並不太樂觀。特別是,今天我們將關注聖農發展的roe。

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

roe,即淨資產收益率,是一種評估公司如何有效地從股東手中獲取投資回報的有用工具。換句話說,它是一種盈利能力比率,衡量公司股東提供的資本的回報率。

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

如何計算股東權益報酬率?

The formula for ROE is:

roe的公式是:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

淨資產收益率 = 淨利潤(來自持續經營) ÷ 股東權益

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Fujian Sunner Development is:

因此,根據上述公式,聖農發展的roe是:

2.5% = CN¥264m ÷ CN¥10b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

2.5% = CN¥26400萬 ÷ CN¥100億(基於截至2024年9月的過去十二個月)。

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. Another way to think of that is that for every CN¥1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn CN¥0.03 in profit.

「回報」是指公司在過去一年中的收益。 另一種思考方式是,對於每一元人民幣的股本,公司能夠獲得0.03元人民幣的利潤。

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

roe與盈利增長有何關係?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

到目前爲止,我們已經了解到roe是衡量公司盈利能力的一個指標。基於公司選擇重新投資或「留存」的利潤比例,我們可以評估公司未來產生利潤的能力。其他因素相等的情況下,roe和利潤留存率都較高的公司通常比沒有這些特徵的公司增長率更高。

A Side By Side comparison of Fujian Sunner Development's Earnings Growth And 2.5% ROE

聖農發展的盈利增長與2.5%的roe的並排對比

It is hard to argue that Fujian Sunner Development's ROE is much good in and of itself. Not just that, even compared to the industry average of 7.6%, the company's ROE is entirely unremarkable. Therefore, it might not be wrong to say that the five year net income decline of 52% seen by Fujian Sunner Development was possibly a result of it having a lower ROE. We reckon that there could also be other factors at play here. Such as - low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.

單從roe來看,很難說聖農發展的roe表現得很好。不僅如此,與行業平均7.6%的roe相比,該公司的roe顯得毫無特別之處。因此,可以說聖農發展在過去五年中淨利潤下降52%可能與其較低的roe有關。我們認爲,這裏可能還有其他因素在起作用,例如低盈利留存或資本配置不當。

However, when we compared Fujian Sunner Development's growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 2.5% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

然而,當我們將聖農發展的增長與行業進行對比時發現,儘管公司的盈利在萎縮,但行業在同一時期實現了2.5%的盈利增長。這讓人頗爲擔憂。

big
SZSE:002299 Past Earnings Growth December 8th 2024
SZSE:002299 過去的盈利增長 2024年12月8日

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It's important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. If you're wondering about Fujian Sunner Development's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

盈利增長是評估股票時一個重要的指標。投資者需要知道市場是否已經考慮到公司的預期盈利增長(或下降)。這樣做將有助於他們判斷該股票的未來是看好還是看衰。如果你想了解聖農發展的估值,可以查看其市盈率與行業的比較。

Is Fujian Sunner Development Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

聖農發展是否有效利用其利潤?

Fujian Sunner Development's declining earnings is not surprising given how the company is spending most of its profits in paying dividends, judging by its three-year median payout ratio of 72% (or a retention ratio of 28%). The business is only left with a small pool of capital to reinvest - A vicious cycle that doesn't benefit the company in the long-run. Our risks dashboard should have the 4 risks we have identified for Fujian Sunner Development.

考慮到聖農發展大部分利潤用於支付分紅,結合其三年的中位支付比例72%(或保留比例28%),其盈利下滑並不令人意外。企業僅剩下少量資本用於再投資——這是一個對公司長期無益的惡性循環。我們的風險特斯拉-儀表應包含我們爲聖農發展識別的4個風險。

Moreover, Fujian Sunner Development has been paying dividends for eight years, which is a considerable amount of time, suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer consistent dividends even though earnings have been shrinking. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to drop to 48% over the next three years. Accordingly, the expected drop in the payout ratio explains the expected increase in the company's ROE to 12%, over the same period.

此外,聖農發展已經支付分紅八年,這段時間相當長,暗示管理層必須意識到股東偏好穩定的分紅,儘管盈利在減少。我們的最新分析師數據表明,公司未來的支付比例預計將在未來三年內降至48%。因此,支付比例的預計下降解釋了公司roe在同一時期預計會上升到12%。

Conclusion

結論

Overall, we would be extremely cautious before making any decision on Fujian Sunner Development. As a result of its low ROE and lack of much reinvestment into the business, the company has seen a disappointing earnings growth rate. Having said that, looking at current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings growth rate is expected to see a huge improvement. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

總體而言,在對聖農發展做出任何決策之前,我們將非常謹慎。由於其低的roe和對業務缺乏再投資,公司經歷了令人失望的收益增長率。話雖如此,根據目前分析師的估計,我們發現公司的收益增長率預計會有大幅改善。這些分析師的預期是基於行業板塊的普遍預期,還是基於公司的基本面?點擊這裏訪問我們分析師預測公司的頁面。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂嗎?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team @ simplywallst.com。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章是一般性質的。我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,使用公正的方法,我們的文章並非意在提供財務建議。這並不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,並且不考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您帶來基於基礎數據驅動的長期聚焦分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St對提及的任何股票都沒有持倉。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
    搶先評論