Is Autoliv (NYSE:ALV) A Risky Investment?
Is Autoliv (NYSE:ALV) A Risky Investment?
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Autoliv, Inc. (NYSE:ALV) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
禾倫·巴菲特曾 famously 說過,'波動性遠非與風險同義。' 在考察一家公司有多風險時,考慮它的資產負債表是很自然的,因爲債務通常與業務崩潰相關。與許多其他公司一樣,奧托立夫公司(紐交所代碼:ALV)也使用債務。但這個債務對股東來說是個問題嗎?
When Is Debt A Problem?
什麼時候負債才是一個問題?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
一般來說,當公司無法輕鬆償還債務時,債務才變成真正的問題,無論是通過籌集資金還是通過自身現金流。 當事情變得非常糟糕時,貸款人可以控制業務。 雖然這並不常見,但我們經常看到有負債的公司因貸款人強迫其以降價的價格籌集資金而永久稀釋股東的情況。 話雖如此,最常見的情況是公司合理管理其債務以促進自身的發展。 在考慮公司的債務水平時的第一步是將其現金和債務一起考慮。
How Much Debt Does Autoliv Carry?
奧托立夫的債務有多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2024 Autoliv had debt of US$2.21b, up from US$1.87b in one year. However, it also had US$415.0m in cash, and so its net debt is US$1.80b.
下圖可點擊查看更詳細的信息,顯示到2024年9月,奧托立夫的債務爲22.1億美元,比一年前的18.7億美元有所上升。然而,它的現金爲41500萬美元,因此其淨債務爲18億美元。
How Strong Is Autoliv's Balance Sheet?
奧托立夫的資產負債表有多強?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Autoliv had liabilities of US$4.03b due within a year, and liabilities of US$1.97b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$415.0m and US$2.19b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total US$3.40b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
最新的資產負債表數據顯示,奧托立夫的短期負債爲40.3億美元,長期負債爲19.7億美元。另一方面,它有41500萬美元的現金和21.9億美元的應收賬款到期。因此,它的負債總額比其現金和短期應收賬款的總和多出34億美元。
This deficit isn't so bad because Autoliv is worth US$7.66b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
這個赤字並不算太壞,因爲奧托立夫的市值爲76.6億美元,因此如果需要,可能能夠籌集足夠的資本來增強其資產負債表。但很明顯,我們應該仔細檢查它是否能夠在不稀釋股東權益的情況下管理其債務。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
爲了衡量公司相對於其收益的債務情況,我們計算其淨負債除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA)和其利息支出除以利息前收益(EBIT)的比例(其利息覆蓋率)。這種方法的優點是,我們既考慮了債務的絕對量(淨負債與 EBITDA),又考慮到了與該債務相關的實際利息支出(其利息覆蓋率)。
Autoliv has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 1.3. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 10.4 times the size. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. Also positive, Autoliv grew its EBIT by 23% in the last year, and that should make it easier to pay down debt, going forward. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Autoliv can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
奧托立夫的淨債務與EBITDA的比率僅爲1.3。它的EBIT輕鬆覆蓋了利息支出,達到10.4倍。因此,我們對其極爲保守的債務使用感到相當放心。還有積極的一點是,奧托立夫在過去一年中EBIT增長了23%,這應該使其在未來償還債務變得更容易。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中了解債務的情況。然而,最終,業務的未來盈利能力將決定奧托立夫能否隨着時間的推移增強其資產負債表。因此,如果你關注未來,可以查看這份免費的報告,顯示分析師的利潤預測。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Autoliv recorded free cash flow of 40% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
但我們最後的考慮也是重要的,因爲一家公司不能用紙面利潤來償還債務;它需要真實的現金流。因此,邏輯步驟是查看EBIT中與實際自由現金流相匹配的比例。查看最近三年的數據,奧托立夫記錄的自由現金流佔其EBIT的40%,這低於我們的預期。從償還債務的角度來看,這並不太好。
Our View
我們的觀點
The good news is that Autoliv's demonstrated ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. But, on a more sombre note, we are a little concerned by its level of total liabilities. All these things considered, it appears that Autoliv can comfortably handle its current debt levels. On the plus side, this leverage can boost shareholder returns, but the potential downside is more risk of loss, so it's worth monitoring the balance sheet. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Autoliv .
好消息是,奧托立夫展示了其用EBIT覆蓋利息支出的能力,就像毛絨絨的小狗讓小孩開心一樣。 但,從一個更嚴肅的角度來看,我們對其總負債水平感到有些擔憂。 綜上所述,奧托立夫似乎能夠舒適地應對當前的債務水平。 從積極的一面來看,這種槓桿可以提升股東回報,但潛在的 downside 是損失風險增加,因此值得關注資產負債表。 在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是一個好的起點。 但歸根結底,每家公司都可能存在在資產負債表之外的風險。 爲此,您應該注意我們發現的奧托立夫的2個警示信號。
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
如果您有興趣投資能夠在不負債的情況下增長利潤的企業,請查看這份免費列表,其中列出了在資產負債表上擁有淨現金的成長型企業。
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