Jefferies downgraded Biogen Inc (NASDAQ:BIIB), citing the company's tough setup.
Leqembi (lecanemab) sales growth remains sluggish, falling below consensus projections through 2030.
Challenges like PET scan reimbursement, slow protocol updates at major hospital networks, and identifying eligible patients continue to hinder adoption.
The analyst sees limited downside at current valuations and notes that continued pipeline progress, regulatory approvals, and a successful lecanemab launch could push the stock to around $350.
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Additionally, Jefferies writes that strategic options, particularly amid the CEO transition, provide a safety net if the stock drops to about $175.
Biogen acknowledges these obstacles vary by hospital or office, adding complexity to addressing them and setting clear timelines for resolution.
Meanwhile, Eli Lilly And Co's (NYSE:LLY) newly launched Kisunla (donanemab) is performing well, including some initial inventory stocking.
Jefferies downgraded Biogen from Buy to Hold with a price target of $180, down from $250.
The analyst highlights a lack of exciting new developments to attract investor interest. Analysts noted that while Biogen has $7-10 billion in capacity for business deals, these efforts will take time to materialize.
Additionally, they highlighted a significant risk in 2030, when royalties from Ocrevus—currently worth $1.5 billion annually—are expected to drop by more than 50% due to the FDA approval of biosimilars. This reduction could cut Biogen's earnings per share by 20-30%.
Jefferies writes the company may seek to acquire "tuck-in" specialty commercial areas.
Biogen faced several pipeline setbacks in 2024, including programs for ALS, tremor, and Angelman syndrome.
Two promising late-stage programs, felzartamab entering Phase 3 trials for IgA nephropathy and dapi starting a second Phase 3 trial for lupus, show potential.
However, their results are years away (expected in 2027-2029), and both target highly competitive markets. As such, these drugs are unlikely to address concerns about Biogen's earnings growth between 2025 and 2030.
Price Action: BIIB stock is up 0.18% at $158.06 at last check Monday.
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傑富瑞下調了百健公司（納斯達克股票代碼：BIIB）的評級，理由是該公司設置艱難。
Leqembi（lecanemab）的銷售增長仍然緩慢，到2030年將低於市場普遍預期。
pET 掃描報銷、主要醫院網絡協議更新緩慢以及確定符合條件的患者等挑戰繼續阻礙着採用。
這位分析師認爲，當前估值的下行空間有限，並指出持續的管道進展、監管部門的批准以及lecanemab的成功推出可能會將該股推至350美元左右。
另請閱讀：Biogen憑藉積極的狼瘡藥物業績獲得動力，分析師認爲估值略有上漲
此外，傑富瑞寫道，如果股票跌至175美元左右，戰略期權，尤其是在首席執行官過渡期間，將提供安全網。
Biogen承認，這些障礙因醫院或辦公室而異，這增加了解決這些障礙和設定明確的解決時間表的複雜性。
同時，禮來公司（紐約證券交易所代碼：LLY）新推出的Kisunla（donanemab）表現良好，包括一些初始庫存備貨。
傑富瑞集團將Biogen的評級從買入下調至持有，目標股價爲180美元，從250美元下調。
這位分析師強調，缺乏吸引投資者興趣的令人興奮的新進展。分析師指出，儘管Biogen的商業交易能力爲70-100美元，但這些努力需要時間才能實現。
此外，他們還強調了2030年的重大風險，由於美國食品藥品管理局批准生物仿製藥，Ocrevus的特許權使用費——目前每年價值15億美元——預計將下降50％以上。這種削減可能會使Biogen的每股收益減少20-30％。
傑富瑞寫道，該公司可能會尋求收購 「隱藏」 的專業商業區。
Biogen在2024年面臨幾次管道挫折，包括ALS、震顫和安格爾曼綜合症的項目。
兩個前景看好的後期項目，費爾扎他單抗進入IgA腎病的3期試驗，以及dapi開始第二項狼瘡3期試驗，顯示出潛力。
但是，他們的業績還有數年的時間（預計在2027-2029年公佈），並且都針對競爭激烈的市場。因此，這些藥物不太可能解決人們對Biogen在2025年至2030年間收益增長的擔憂。
價格走勢：週一最後一次檢查時，BiIB股價上漲0.18％，至158.06美元。
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