Is Dawning Information Industry (SHSE:603019) A Risky Investment?
Is Dawning Information Industry (SHSE:603019) A Risky Investment?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Dawning Information Industry Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603019) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
有些人認爲,波動性,而非債務,才是投資者思考風險的最好方式,但禾倫·巴菲特曾著名地說過「波動性遠不是風險的同義詞」。在評估一家公司有多危險時,考慮公司的資產負債表是很自然的,因爲當企業崩潰時,債務往往是相關的。我們可以看到中科曙光有限公司(SHSE:603019)確實在其業務中使用了債務。但股東應該爲其使用債務感到擔憂嗎?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
債務何時會變得危險?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
一般來說,債務只有在公司無法輕易償還時才成爲真正的問題,要麼通過籌集資本,要麼通過自身的現金流。最終,如果公司無法履行償還債務的法律義務,股東可能會一無所獲。雖然這種情況並不常見,但我們確實經常看到負債公司因貸款人迫使他們以低價籌集資本而永久稀釋股東。當然,債務的好處在於它通常代表了廉價資本,尤其是當它替代了能夠以高回報率再投資的公司的稀釋時。考慮一家企業使用多少債務時,首先要看它的現金和債務的組合。
What Is Dawning Information Industry's Debt?
中科曙光的債務是多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Dawning Information Industry had debt of CN¥1.52b at the end of September 2024, a reduction from CN¥2.87b over a year. However, it does have CN¥3.43b in cash offsetting this, leading to net cash of CN¥1.90b.
下面的圖像,您可以點擊獲取更詳盡的信息,顯示中科曙光截至2024年9月底的債務爲人民幣15.2億,比一年前的人民幣28.7億有所減少。然而,它有人民幣34.3億的現金來抵消這些債務,導致淨現金爲人民幣19億。
How Healthy Is Dawning Information Industry's Balance Sheet?
中科曙光的資產負債表健康嗎?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Dawning Information Industry had liabilities of CN¥4.38b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥8.21b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥3.43b as well as receivables valued at CN¥3.48b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥5.68b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
仔細看一下最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到中科曙光在12個月內有430億元人民幣的負債,以及在那之後有82.1億元人民幣的負債。抵消這些義務後,它有34.3億元人民幣的現金,和34.8億元人民幣的應收賬款,後者在12個月內到期。因此,它的負債總額比現金和短期應收賬款的總和多56.8億元人民幣。
Since publicly traded Dawning Information Industry shares are worth a very impressive total of CN¥109.7b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward. While it does have liabilities worth noting, Dawning Information Industry also has more cash than debt, so we're pretty confident it can manage its debt safely.
由於中科曙光的公開交易股份總價值達1097億元人民幣,因此這種負債水平似乎不太可能構成重大威脅。但存在足夠的負債,我們當然會建議股東繼續監控資產負債表。雖然它有值得注意的負債,但中科曙光的現金超過債務,所以我們相當有信心它可以安全地管理債務。
On the other hand, Dawning Information Industry's EBIT dived 11%, over the last year. If that rate of decline in earnings continues, the company could find itself in a tight spot. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Dawning Information Industry's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
另一方面,中科曙光的息稅前利潤(EBIT)在過去一年下降了11%。如果這種盈利下降的趨勢持續下去,公司可能會面臨困境。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表無疑是一個明顯的起點。但未來的收益,超過一切,將決定中科曙光未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果你關注未來,可以查看這份免費報告,展示分析師的盈利預測。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. Dawning Information Industry may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Over the last three years, Dawning Information Industry saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
最後,一家公司只能用現金償還債務,而不是會計利潤。中科曙光在資產負債表上可能有淨現金,但查看該業務將其息稅前利潤(EBIT)轉化爲自由現金流的能力仍然很有趣,因爲這將影響其債務管理的需求及能力。在過去三年中,中科曙光的自由現金流總體上看大幅爲負。儘管投資者無疑希望這種情況在將來會逆轉,但這顯然意味着其債務使用風險更大。
Summing Up
總結
While it is always sensible to look at a company's total liabilities, it is very reassuring that Dawning Information Industry has CN¥1.90b in net cash. So although we see some areas for improvement, we're not too worried about Dawning Information Industry's balance sheet. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Dawning Information Industry you should know about.
雖然查看公司的總負債總是明智的,但中科曙光擁有19億人民幣的淨現金,這讓人感到非常安心。因此,儘管我們看到了一些需要改進的地方,但我們對中科曙光的資產負債表並不太擔心。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但最終,每家公司都可能存在資產負債表之外的風險。這些風險可能很難發現。每家公司都有這些風險,我們已經發現了中科曙光的1個警示信號,你應該了解。
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
當然,如果你是那種喜歡購買沒有債務負擔的股票的投資者,那麼不要猶豫,今天就來發現我們獨家的淨現金成長股票列表。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有反饋?對內容有疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至 editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇來自Simply Wall St的文章是一般性的。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,採用無偏見的方法,我們的文章並不旨在提供財務建議。它不構成對任何股票的買入或賣出建議,也未考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您提供以基本數據驅動的長期分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St在提到的任何股票中均沒有持倉。