Singapore Transport Sector Poised for Moderate Growth in 2025
Singapore Transport Sector Poised for Moderate Growth in 2025
It cited upside risks such as stronger-than-expected cargo demand, as seen in October 2024 when SIA reported a 20% year-on-year increase in cargo freight tonne kilometre (FTK) demand, outpacing a 14% capacity expansion.Demand in air transport is expected to remain strong, but weaker ticket pricing could pressure profitability.
航空運輸的需求預計將保持強勁，但票價降低可能會給盈利能力施加壓力。
Singapore's transport sector is positioned for moderate performance in 2025, with growth underpinned by recovery trends in air travel and logistics.
新加坡的交通板塊在2025年有望實現適度表現，增長得益於航空旅行和物流的復甦趨勢。
CGSI said demand in air transport is expected to remain strong, but weaker ticket pricing could pressure profitability, partially offset by lower oil prices, which underpins the "Reduce" call on SIA's stock.
CGSI表示，航空運輸的需求預計將保持強勁，但較低的票價可能會對盈利能力施加壓力，部分被較低的石油價格抵消，這加強了對新加坡航空公司股票的"減持"看漲。
It cited upside risks such as stronger-than-expected cargo demand, as seen in October 2024 when SIA reported a 20% year-on-year increase in cargo freight tonne kilometre (FTK) demand, outpacing a 14% capacity expansion.
它提到了一些上行風險，例如貨物需求超出預期，正如2024年10月新加坡航空公司報告的貨物運輸千噸公里(FTK)需求同比增長20%，超過了14%的運力擴張。
Another potential positive factor is declining jet fuel prices, which fell from US$108/bbl in Q4 2023 to an average of US$89/bbl in Q4 2024 (as of November 25).
另一個潛在的積極因素是噴氣燃料價格的下降，從2023年第四季度的每桶108美元下降到2024年第四季度的平均每桶89美元（截至11月25日）。
For land transport, CGSI expects UK EBIT margins to improve further in FY25F as contract renewals continue, whilst ComfortDelGro's (CD) four new bus contracts in Manchester are projected to contribute $7-12m in annual operating profit.
對於陸上運輸，CGSI預計在FY25F期間，英國的EBIT利潤率將進一步改善，因爲合同續簽持續進行，而康福德高企業（CD）在曼徹斯特的新四個公交合同預計將貢獻700-1200萬的年度營業利潤。
It also forecasts a 16% PATMI growth in FY25F, driven by UK tailwinds, new tender wins, and contributions from mergers and acquisitions.
它還預測FY25F期間的PATMI增長將達到16%，受益於英國的順風、新投標獲勝以及併購的貢獻。
