Private Home Prices Expected to Rise 0-3% in 2025
Private Home Prices Expected to Rise 0-3% in 2025
Developers are trading at a 58% discount to RNAV and 0.52x FY24F P/BV, between -1 and -2 standard deviations of their 10-year average, with those more exposed to the residential segment poised to benefit from a recovery in home sales.Around 8,200-8,300 units may launch in 1H25, with sales recovering to 6,000-7,000 units in 2025.
預計在2025年上半年將推出約8,200-8,300個單位，銷售將恢復到6,000-7,000個單位。
Private home prices are seen to rise modestly by 0-3% in 2025, supported by a wave of new launches.
預計2025年私人住宅價格會小幅上漲0-3%，受到一波新發布的支持。
In a report, CGS International (CGSI) noted developers estimate 8,200-8,300 residential units could hit the market in 1H25, with new private home sales volumes forecasted to recover to 6,000-7,000 units in 2025.
在一份報告中，中國銀河國際（CGSI）指出，開發商估計2025年上半年可能會有8,200-8,300個住宅單位上市，新的私人住宅銷售量預計將恢復到6,000-7,000個單位。
Developers are trading at a 58% discount to RNAV and 0.52x FY24F P/BV, between -1 and -2 standard deviations of their 10-year average, with those more exposed to the residential segment poised to benefit from a recovery in home sales.
開發商的交易價格比RNAV低58%，且FY24F的P/BV爲0.52倍，處於10年平均值的-1到-2個標準差之間，那些更依賴住宅板塊的開發商將從住宅銷售的恢復中受益。
Despite seeing value in developers at these levels, CGSI cautioned that a tempered rate cut outlook could limit significant share price outperformance in the near term.
儘管在這些水平上看到了開發商的價值，但CGSI警告稱，溫和的減息前景可能會限制近期內顯著的分享價格表現。
Meanwhile, it said the lower interest rate environment in Singapore could boost residential property buying interest.
與此同時，它表示，新加坡的低利率環境可能會提升住宅物業的購買興趣。
CGSI retained its neutral stance on the sector, naming CapitaLand Investment (CLI) as its top pick, followed by UOL. Among small caps, CGSI favored property broker PROP.
CGSI對該板塊保持中立立場，首推凱德投資（CLI），其次是華業集團。在小型股中，CGSI偏好房地產經紀PROP。
