An expert said SREITs will likely have a better year.
2025 is set to be a better year for Singapore-listed real estate investment trusts (SREITs), with the market anticipating three rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve.
If this plays out and interest rates in Singapore remain unchanged, SREITs should benefit from reduced borrowing costs.
CGS International said those with a greater proportion of floating-rate debt will benefit most as their interest payments decrease.
With lower funding costs and positive rental rates, SREITs are likely to resume a 2-3% growth in distribution per unit (DPU) in 2025, according to CGS International.
Sectors which have reported positive rental rates were industrial and retail.
GS International reported that rental reversions in Singapore were positive across S-REITs in 9M24.
In 2025, the expert anticipates high occupancies and the ongoing lease renewal cycle to help S-REITs achieve low single-digit rental reversions and manage cost challenges.
CGS International's top picks in the sector are Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) and Lendlease Global Commercial REIT (LREIT).
"We continue to like FCT's resilient portfolio of suburban malls. LREIT is a potential re-rating play if its asset recycling strategy is successfully executed," the expert said.
"Sector risks include weakening consumer sentiment that could lead to a slowdown in consumer spending, which could further dampen tenant sentiment and reversions," it added.
Industrial SREITs echoed the positive rental reversion trend, with continued high-single or low-double-digit positive reversions in the warehouse, hi-tech, and light industrial sectors in Singapore, although business park rents showed moderation quarter-on-quarter.
In 2025, CGS International projects rents will increase by 0%-3%, a more moderate growth than the full-year expectation for 2024. The expert attributes this to supply dynamics.
The industrial sector will experience a surge in new supply, with 1,648,000 sqm of space expected to come onstream, the highest since 2022. The majority of this new space will be in the warehouse (39%), single-user factory (29%), and multi-user factory (18%) segments.
The office sector is another area likely to be influenced by supply dynamics. CGS International said a slowdown in new supply will help support its rental outlook.
The expert expects rents in the office sector to increase by 0%-3% next year.
Meanwhile, the hospitality sector will also see some easing, particularly in revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth, falling between 0%-3%.
CGS International attributed the expected moderation to Singapore's international visitor arrivals being likely to stay at 16 million to 17 million next year, with the average length of stay remaining flat year-on-year.
The expert, however, said that the Q1 2025 YoY RevPAR performance could be influenced by the high base effect from Q1 2024, driven by numerous major concerts and events.
CGS International's top picks for the sector are CapitaLand Ascott Trust (CLAS), CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDREIT), and Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT),
"Among these, CLAS and CDREIT both have more diversified footprints to navigate the moderating momentum in the Singapore hotel market," CGS International said.
一位專家表示，信託在2023年可能會有更好的表現。
2025年預計將是新加坡上市房地產投資信託（SREITs）更好的一年，市場預計美國聯邦儲備將進行三次減息。
如果這種情況發生，而新加坡的利率保持不變，信託將受益於降低的借款成本。
中國銀河表示，債務中浮動利率債務比例較高的公司將受益最大，因爲他們的利息支出將減少。
根據中國銀河的說法，由於融資成本降低和租金率積極，信託預計將在2025年恢復2-3%的每單位分配增長(DPU)。
報告顯示，工業和零售板塊的租金率呈積極態勢。
GS International報告稱，2024年9個月內新加坡的信託租金回報均爲正。
在2025年，這位專家預測高入住率和持續的租約續簽週期將幫助信託實現低單位數字租金回升，並應對成本挑戰。
中國銀河國際在該板塊的首選是星獅地產信託（FCT）和Lendlease全球商業信託（LREIT）。
「我們仍然看好FCT韌性的郊區購物中心組合。如果其資產回收策略成功執行，LREIT有可能得到重新評級，」專家表示。
「板塊風險包括消費者信心減弱，這可能導致消費支出放緩，從而進一步影響租戶情緒和回報，」他補充道。
工業信託反映了積極的租金回升趨勢，新加坡倉庫、高科技和輕工業板塊繼續出現高單位數或低雙位數的積極回升，儘管商業園區租金環比顯示有所放緩。
到2025年，中國銀河國際預測租金將增長0%-3%，這比2024年全年預期的增長更爲溫和。專家將此歸因於供給動態。
工業板塊將出現新供給的激增，預計會有1,648,000平方米的空間投入市場，這是自2022年以來的最高水平。大多數新空間將位於倉庫（39%）、單用戶工廠（29%）和多用戶工廠（18%）領域。
辦公室板塊也是可能受到供給動態影響的另一個領域。中國銀河國際表示，新供應放緩將有助於支持其租金展望。
專家預計明年辦公室板塊的租金將增加0%-3%。
與此同時，酒店業也將看到一些放緩，尤其是每間可用房的營業收入（RevPAR）增長，將在0%-3%之間。
中國銀河國際將預期的放緩歸因於新加坡的國際遊客到達人數預計將在明年停留在1600萬到1700萬之間，而平均停留時間與去年持平。
然而，專家表示，2025年第一季度的同比RevPAR表現可能會受到2024年第一季度的高基數效應的影響，這主要是由於衆多重大音樂會和活動。
中國銀河國際對該板塊的首選是凱賓斯基雅逸信託（CLAS）、嘉德酒店信託（CDREIT）和遠東酒店信託（FEHT），
中國銀河國際表示：「在這些公司中，CLAS和CDREIT在應對新加坡酒店市場的放緩勢頭上具有更爲多元化的佈局。」
