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Is V.F (NYSE:VFC) A Risky Investment?

Is V.F (NYSE:VFC) A Risky Investment?

V.F (紐交所:VFC) 是一項風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  12/12 18:36

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, V.F. Corporation (NYSE:VFC) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

霍華德·馬克斯說得好,他說的不是擔心股價的波動,而是 「永久損失的可能性是我擔心的風險... 也是我認識的每位實際投資者所擔心的風險。」因此,當你評估公司的風險時,看來聰明的貨幣知道債務(通常涉及破產)是一個非常重要的因素。重要的是,VF. Corporation(紐約證券交易所代碼:VFC)確實有債務。但是這筆債務是股東關心的問題嗎?

When Is Debt A Problem?

債務何時成爲問題?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

債務可以幫助企業,直到企業難以償還債務,無論是新資本還是自由現金流。資本主義的組成部分是 「創造性破壞」 過程,在這種過程中,倒閉的企業被銀行家無情地清算。但是,更頻繁(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,公司必須以低廉的價格發行股票,永久稀釋股東,以支撐其資產負債表。但是,通過取代稀釋,債務可以成爲需要資本以高回報率投資增長的企業的極好工具。考慮公司的債務水平的第一步是同時考慮其現金和債務。

What Is V.F's Net Debt?

什麼是VF的淨負債?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that V.F had debt of US$6.24b at the end of September 2024, a reduction from US$6.68b over a year. However, it also had US$492.5m in cash, and so its net debt is US$5.75b.

您可以點擊下圖以獲取更多詳細信息,該圖片顯示,截至2024年9月底,VF的債務爲62.4億美元,較上一年的66.8億美元有所減少。但是,它也有4.925億美元的現金,因此其淨負債爲57.5億美元。

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NYSE:VFC Debt to Equity History December 12th 2024
紐約證券交易所:VFC債務與股本比率歷史記錄 2024年12月12日

A Look At V.F's Liabilities

看看 V.F 的負債

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that V.F had liabilities of US$4.98b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$5.83b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$492.5m and US$1.82b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$8.50b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

放大最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到VF的負債爲49.8億美元,12個月內到期的負債爲58.3億美元。另一方面,它有一年內到期的現金爲4.925億美元,還有價值18.2億美元的應收賬款。因此,它的負債總額比其現金和短期應收賬款的總和多出85.0億美元。

Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of US$8.12b, we think shareholders really should watch V.F's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.

鑑於這一赤字實際上高於公司81.2億美元的市值,我們認爲股東確實應該關注VF的債務水平,就像父母第一次看着孩子騎自行車一樣。假設,如果公司被迫通過按當前股價籌集資金來償還負債,則需要進行極其嚴重的稀釋。

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

我們通過以下方法來衡量公司的債務負擔與其盈利能力的關係:其淨負債除以未計利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前的收益(EBITDA),並計算其利息和稅前收益(EBIT)彌補利息支出(利息保障)的難易程度。這種方法的優勢在於,我們既考慮了債務的絕對數量(淨負債佔息稅折舊攤銷前利潤),也考慮了與該債務相關的實際利息支出(及其利息覆蓋率)。

Weak interest cover of 2.1 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 7.3 hit our confidence in V.F like a one-two punch to the gut. The debt burden here is substantial. Even worse, V.F saw its EBIT tank 51% over the last 12 months. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine V.F's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

2.1倍的薄弱利息覆蓋率和令人不安的高淨負債與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的比率7.3打擊了我們對VF的信心,就像一二衝擊直覺。這裏的債務負擔是沉重的。更糟糕的是,在過去的12個月中,V.F的息稅前利潤下降了51%。如果收益繼續保持這一軌跡,那麼償還債務負擔將比說服我們在雨中跑一場馬拉松更難。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但是,未來的收益比什麼都重要,將決定V.F未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果您專注於未來,可以查看這份顯示分析師利潤預測的免費報告。

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, V.F reported free cash flow worth 15% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. For us, cash conversion that low sparks a little paranoia about is ability to extinguish debt.

最後,公司只能用冷硬現金償還債務,不能用會計利潤償還債務。因此,合乎邏輯的步驟是研究該息稅前利潤與實際自由現金流相匹配的比例。在過去的三年中,VF報告的自由現金流佔其息稅前利潤的15%,確實很低。對我們來說,低現金轉換率會引發一點偏執狂,那就是償還債務的能力。

Our View

我們的觀點

To be frank both V.F's net debt to EBITDA and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. And even its level of total liabilities fails to inspire much confidence. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think V.F has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn't float our boat. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example V.F has 2 warning signs (and 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) we think you should know about.

坦率地說,V.F的淨負債佔息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的比例以及其(不)增長的息稅前利潤的往績都使我們對其債務水平感到相當不舒服。而且,即使是其總負債水平也無法激發太大的信心。在考慮了所討論的數據點之後,我們認爲VF的債務太多了。這種風險對某些人來說是可以的,但它肯定無法滿足我們的需求。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但歸根結底,每家公司都可以控制資產負債表之外存在的風險。例如,V.F 有 2 個警告標誌(其中 1 個對我們來說不太合適),我們認爲你應該知道。

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

如果你有興趣投資能夠在沒有債務負擔的情況下增加利潤的企業,那麼請查看這份資產負債表上有淨現金的成長型企業的免費清單。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St 的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並非旨在提供財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。華爾街只是沒有持有上述任何股票的頭寸。

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