Is Sun Country Airlines Holdings (NASDAQ:SNCY) A Risky Investment?
Is Sun Country Airlines Holdings (NASDAQ:SNCY) A Risky Investment?
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:SNCY) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
大衛·伊本很好地表述了這一點,他說,'波動性不是我們關心的風險。我們關心的是避免資本的永久損失。' 當你研究一家公司有多大風險時,自然要考慮公司的資產負債表,因爲債務通常涉及到企業的破產。我們可以看到,太陽國航空控股公司(納斯達克:SNCY)確實在其業務中使用債務。但真正的問題是,這些債務是否使公司變得有風險。
When Is Debt A Problem?
何時債務成爲問題?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
債務會幫助企業,直到企業在用新資本或自由現金流償還債務時遇到麻煩。在最壞的情況下,如果一家公司無法償還其債權人,就可能破產。然而,更常見(但仍然痛苦)的情況是,它必須以低價籌集新的股本,從而永久地稀釋股東的權益。當然,債務的好處在於,它通常代表着低廉的資本,特別是在它取代了具有高回報再投資能力的公司的稀釋時。當考慮一家公司債務水平時,第一步是一起考慮其現金和債務。
What Is Sun Country Airlines Holdings's Debt?
太陽國航空控股公司的債務是多少?
As you can see below, Sun Country Airlines Holdings had US$351.8m of debt at September 2024, down from US$435.1m a year prior. However, it does have US$146.5m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$205.3m.
正如您在下方看到的,太陽國航空控股公司在2024年9月的債務爲35180萬美元,比一年前的43510萬美元下降。然而,它有14650萬美元的現金抵消這部分債務,使淨債務約爲20530萬美元。
A Look At Sun Country Airlines Holdings' Liabilities
分析Sun Country航空公司控股的負債情況
The latest balance sheet data shows that Sun Country Airlines Holdings had liabilities of US$380.8m due within a year, and liabilities of US$676.5m falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$146.5m and US$37.8m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$873.0m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
最新的資產負債表數據顯示,Sun Country航空公司控股在一年內到期的負債爲38,080萬美元,而在此之後到期的負債爲67,650萬美元。另一方面,它的現金爲14,650萬美元,以及價值3,780萬美元的應收賬款在一年內到期。因此,它的負債總額超過現金和短期應收賬款的總和爲87,300萬美元。
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of US$778.2m, we think shareholders really should watch Sun Country Airlines Holdings's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.
鑑於這一赤字實際上高於公司市值77,820萬美元,我們認爲股東確實應該像家長第一次看着孩子騎自行車一樣關注Sun Country航空公司控股的債務水平。在公司需要迅速清理資產負債表的情況下,股東似乎會遭受嚴重的稀釋。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
爲了衡量一家公司相對於其收益的債務水平,我們計算其淨負債與利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)的比率,以及其利息和稅項前利潤(EBIT)與其利息支出(利息支付比率)的比率。因此,我們考慮了包括和不包括折舊和攤銷費用的收益相對於債務的情況。
While Sun Country Airlines Holdings's low debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.1 suggests only modest use of debt, the fact that EBIT only covered the interest expense by 2.7 times last year does give us pause. So we'd recommend keeping a close eye on the impact financing costs are having on the business. Importantly, Sun Country Airlines Holdings's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 23% in the last twelve months. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Sun Country Airlines Holdings can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
雖然Sun Country航空公司控股的債務與EBITDA比率爲1.1表明其僅適度使用債務,但去年EBIT僅能覆蓋利息支出2.7倍這一事實確實讓我們感到不安。因此,我們建議密切關注融資成本對業務的影響。重要的是,Sun Country航空公司控股的EBIT在過去12個月中驟降了23%。如果這一盈利趨勢持續下去,那麼償還債務將像把貓圈到過山車上一樣困難。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但最終,企業的未來盈利能力將決定Sun Country航空公司控股是否能隨着時間的推移加強其資產負債表。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的看法,您可能會發現這份關於分析師盈利預測的免費報告很有趣。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Considering the last three years, Sun Country Airlines Holdings actually recorded a cash outflow, overall. Debt is usually more expensive, and almost always more risky in the hands of a company with negative free cash flow. Shareholders ought to hope for an improvement.
但我們最終的考慮也很重要,因爲公司無法用紙上利潤償還債務;它需要冷硬的現金。所以值得檢查一下這些EBIT中有多少是由自由現金流支持的。考慮過去三年,陽光國家航空控股公司實際上總體上記錄了現金流出。債務通常更昂貴,並且幾乎總是在負自由現金流的公司手中風險更大。股東們應該期待改善。
Our View
我們的觀點
To be frank both Sun Country Airlines Holdings's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least it's pretty decent at managing its debt, based on its EBITDA,; that's encouraging. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think Sun Country Airlines Holdings has too much debt. While some investors love that sort of risky play, it's certainly not our cup of tea. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Sun Country Airlines Holdings you should be aware of.
坦率地說,陽光國家航空控股公司將EBIT轉換爲自由現金流的能力以及其EBIT增長(或未增長)的記錄讓我們對其債務水平感到相當不安。但至少根據其EBITDA,它在管理債務方面表現得相當不錯,這讓人感到鼓舞。在考慮了討論的數據點後,我們認爲陽光國家航空控股公司的債務過多。雖然一些投資者喜歡這種冒險的投資方式,但這絕對不是我們所喜歡的。分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是重點關注的領域。然而,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。舉個例子:我們發現有2個警告信號與陽光國家航空控股公司有關,你應該注意。
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
最終,通常更好的是關注沒有淨負債的公司。你可以訪問我們特別列出這些公司的名單(所有公司都有盈利增長的記錄)。這是免費的。
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