US$196 - That's What Analysts Think Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) Is Worth After These Results
US$196 - That's What Analysts Think Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) Is Worth After These Results
Last week, you might have seen that Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.1% to US$179 in the past week. Oracle reported US$14b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.10 beat expectations, being 2.9% higher than what the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
上週,你可能已經看到甲骨文公司(紐約證券交易所代碼:ORCL)向市場發佈了季度業績。早期的反應並不樂觀,過去一週股價下跌5.1%,至179美元。甲骨文公佈的收入爲140億美元,與分析師的預測大致一致,儘管1.10美元的法定每股收益(EPS)超出預期,比分析師的預期高出2.9%。對於投資者來說,盈利是一個重要時刻,因爲他們可以追蹤公司的業績,查看分析師對明年的預測,看看對公司的情緒是否發生了變化。根據這些結果,我們收集了最新的法定預測,以了解分析師是否改變了盈利模式。
After the latest results, the 34 analysts covering Oracle are now predicting revenues of US$57.7b in 2025. If met, this would reflect an okay 5.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 9.9% to US$4.57. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$58.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.61 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
根據最新業績,涵蓋甲骨文的34位分析師現在預測2025年的收入爲577億美元。如果得到滿足,這將反映出收入與過去12個月相比增長了5.0%。每股收益預計將累積9.9%,至4.57美元。然而,在最新業績公佈之前,分析師曾預計2025年收入爲581億美元,每股收益(EPS)爲4.61美元。因此,很明顯,儘管分析師已經更新了估計,但在最新業績公佈後,對該業務的預期沒有重大變化。
The consensus price target rose 6.7% to US$196despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of Oracle's earnings by assigning a price premium. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Oracle, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$220 and the most bearish at US$140 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
儘管收益預期沒有有意義的變化,但共識目標股價上漲了6.7%,至196美元。可能是分析師通過分配價格溢價來反映甲骨文收益的可預測性。但是,這並不是我們可以從這些數據中得出的唯一結論,因爲一些投資者在評估分析師目標股價時也喜歡考慮估計值的差異。對甲骨文的看法有所不同,最看漲的分析師認爲甲骨文爲220美元,最看跌的爲每股140美元。對該股肯定有一些不同的看法,但在我們看來,估計範圍還不夠廣,不足以暗示情況不可預測。
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Oracle's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 10% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 7.9% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 13% annually. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Oracle is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.
我們可以從大局的角度看待這些估計值的另一種方式,例如預測如何與過去的表現相提並論,以及預測相對於業內其他公司是否或多或少看漲。分析師肯定預計甲骨文的增長將加速,預計到2025年底的年化增長率爲10%,而過去五年的歷史年增長率爲7.9%。相比之下,同行業的其他公司預計年收入將增長13%。顯而易見,儘管未來的增長前景比最近更光明,但甲骨文的增長預計將慢於整個行業。
The Bottom Line
底線
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Oracle's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
要了解的最重要的一點是,市場情緒沒有重大變化,分析師再次確認該業務的表現符合他們先前的每股收益預期。幸運的是,分析師還重申了他們的收入預期,表明收入符合預期。儘管我們的數據確實表明,甲骨文的收入預計將比整個行業差。目標股價也大幅提高,分析師顯然認爲該業務的內在價值正在提高。
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Oracle going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..
話雖如此,公司收益的長期軌跡比明年重要得多。在Simply Wall St,我們有分析師對甲骨文到2027年的全方位估計,你可以在我們的平台上免費看到這些估計。
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Oracle that you should be aware of.
但是,在你變得過於熱情之前,我們已經發現了兩個你應該注意的 Oracle 警告信號。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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Simply Wall St 的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並非旨在提供財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。華爾街只是沒有持有上述任何股票的頭寸。