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Is Yongjin Technology Group (SHSE:603995) Using Too Much Debt?

Is Yongjin Technology Group (SHSE:603995) Using Too Much Debt?

甬金股份(SHSE:603995)是否使用了過多的債務?
Simply Wall St ·  2024/12/13 06:22

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Yongjin Technology Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603995) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

由伯克希爾·哈撒韋的查理·芒格支持的外部基金經理李路毫不掩飾地表示: 「最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久性資本損失。」 當我們思考一家公司有多風險時,我們總是喜歡關注它的債務使用情況,因爲債務過重可能會導致破產。 我們可以看到,甬金股份有限公司(SHSE:603995)確實在其業務中使用了債務。 但真正的問題是,這些債務是否使公司變得更具風險。

When Is Debt A Problem?

何時債務成爲問題?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

債務是幫助企業成長的工具,但如果一家企業無法償還其債權人,那麼它就處於他們的操控之中。 最終,如果公司無法履行其法律 obligations 來償還債務,股東可能會一無所獲。 然而,更常見(但仍然痛苦)的情況是,必須以低價籌集新的股本,從而永久性稀釋股東。 當然,債務的好處是它通常代表着廉價資本,特別是當它取代在能夠以高回報率再投資的公司中的稀釋時。 當我們考慮一家公司的債務使用時,我們首先將現金和債務結合起來看。

What Is Yongjin Technology Group's Net Debt?

甬金股份的淨債務是多少?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2024 Yongjin Technology Group had debt of CN¥4.01b, up from CN¥2.66b in one year. However, it also had CN¥1.43b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥2.58b.

下圖您可以點擊以獲取更詳細的信息,顯示截至2024年9月,甬金股份的債務爲40.1億人民幣,比一年前的26.6億人民幣有所增加。 但是,它也有14.3億人民幣的現金,因此其淨債務爲25.8億人民幣。

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SHSE:603995 Debt to Equity History December 12th 2024
SHSE:603995 債務與股本歷史 2024年12月12日

How Strong Is Yongjin Technology Group's Balance Sheet?

甬金股份的資產負債表有多強?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Yongjin Technology Group had liabilities of CN¥6.58b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥2.11b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥1.43b as well as receivables valued at CN¥1.47b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥5.79b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

仔細查看最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到甬金股份在12個月內有65.8億人民幣的負債以及21.1億人民幣的長期負債。爲了抵消這些義務,甬金股份有14.3億人民幣的現金和14.7億人民幣的短期應收款。因此,其負債總額比現金和短期應收款之和多出57.9億人民幣。

This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of CN¥7.41b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Yongjin Technology Group's use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

相對於其74.1億人民幣的市值,這一赤字相當可觀,因此這確實提示股東應該關注甬金股份的債務使用情況。如果其貸方要求其增強資產負債表,股東可能面臨嚴重的稀釋。

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

爲了評估一家公司的債務與其收益的關係,我們計算其淨債務與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)的比率,以及息稅前利潤(EBIT)與利息費用的比率(即利息覆蓋率)。通過這種方式,我們考慮了債務的絕對數量和所支付的利率。

Yongjin Technology Group's net debt to EBITDA ratio of about 1.6 suggests only moderate use of debt. And its commanding EBIT of 10.2 times its interest expense, implies the debt load is as light as a peacock feather. In addition to that, we're happy to report that Yongjin Technology Group has boosted its EBIT by 52%, thus reducing the spectre of future debt repayments. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Yongjin Technology Group can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

甬金股份的淨負債與EBITDA比率約爲1.6,表明其債務使用僅處於中等水平。同時,其EBIT是利息支出的10.2倍,這意味着債務負擔輕如孔雀羽毛。此外,我們很高興地報告甬金股份的EBIT增長了52%,從而減少了未來債務償還的陰影。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表上學到的有關債務的信息最多。但最終,業務的未來盈利能力將決定甬金股份是否能隨着時間的推移增強其資產負債表。因此,如果您關注未來,可以查看這份免費報告,了解分析師的利潤預測。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Yongjin Technology Group burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

最後,雖然稅務官可能喜歡會計利潤,但貸方只接受冷硬現金。因此,我們總是檢查EBIT中有多少轉化爲自由現金流。在過去三年中,甬金股份消耗了大量現金。儘管投資者無疑期待這一情況在適當的時候會逆轉,但這顯然意味着其債務使用更加風險。

Our View

我們的觀點

Neither Yongjin Technology Group's ability to convert EBIT to free cash flow nor its level of total liabilities gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But the good news is it seems to be able to grow its EBIT with ease. We think that Yongjin Technology Group's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Yongjin Technology Group that you should be aware of before investing here.

甬金股份在將EBIT轉化爲自由現金流的能力以及其總負債水平未能給予我們信心,認爲它能承擔更多的債務。但好消息是,它似乎能夠輕鬆地增長其EBIT。我們認爲,考慮到以上數據,甬金股份的債務確實使其有些風險。這並不一定是壞事,因爲槓桿可以提高股本收益率,但這是需要注意的。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是一個明顯的起點。然而,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表上,遠非如此。例如,我們發現甬金股份有一個警告信號,在這裏投資前你應該注意。

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

如果您有興趣投資那些能夠在沒有債務負擔的情況下增長利潤的業務,請查看這個自由名單,其中列出了在資產負債表上有淨現金的成長型企業。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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這篇來自Simply Wall St的文章是一般性的。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,採用無偏見的方法,我們的文章並不旨在提供財務建議。它不構成對任何股票的買入或賣出建議,也未考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您提供以基本數據驅動的長期分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St在提到的任何股票中均沒有持倉。

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