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Nongfu Spring (HKG:9633) Seems To Use Debt Rather Sparingly

Nongfu Spring (HKG:9633) Seems To Use Debt Rather Sparingly

農夫山泉 (HKG:9633) 似乎較少使用債務
Simply Wall St ·  2024/12/13 14:17

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. (HKG:9633) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

由巴菲特的查理·芒格支持的外部基金經理李錄直言不諱地表示,"最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久性資本損失。" 當我們考慮一家公司的風險時,我們總是喜歡觀察其債務使用情況,因爲債務過多可能導致企業破產。我們注意到農夫山泉(臨時代碼)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但是,股東該擔心其債務使用嗎?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

債務帶來了什麼風險?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

一般來說,只有當一家公司無法輕鬆償還債務時,債務才會成爲真正的問題,無論是通過融資還是依靠自身的現金流。資本主義的一個組成部分是"創造性破壞"的過程,失敗的企業被其銀行毫不留情地清算。然而,更頻繁(但仍然代價高昂)的情況是,一家公司不得不以廉價的價格發行股份,以永久性地稀釋股東權益,僅僅是爲了鞏固其資產負債表。當然,債務的好處在於,它通常代表着廉價的資本,尤其是在它替代一家有能力以高回報率再投資的公司中的稀釋時。當我們審視債務水平時,我們首先考慮現金和債務水平的結合。

What Is Nongfu Spring's Net Debt?

農夫山泉的淨債務是多少?

As you can see below, Nongfu Spring had CN¥3.86b of debt, at June 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. But it also has CN¥19.0b in cash to offset that, meaning it has CN¥15.2b net cash.

正如下文所示,截止2024年6月,農夫山泉的債務爲38.6億人民幣,與前一年大致相同。您可以點擊圖表查看更詳細的信息。但它還有190億人民幣的現金來抵消這筆債務,這意味着它的淨現金爲152億人民幣。

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SEHK:9633 Debt to Equity History December 13th 2024
SEHK:9633 債務與股本歷史 2024年12月13日

How Strong Is Nongfu Spring's Balance Sheet?

農夫山泉的資產負債表有多強?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Nongfu Spring had liabilities of CN¥29.0b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥671.2m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥19.0b and CN¥703.2m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CN¥9.93b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

從最近的資產負債表可以看出,農夫山泉在一年內到期的負債爲290億人民幣,超過一年到期的負債爲67120萬人民幣。另一方面,它有190億人民幣的現金以及70320萬人民幣的應收賬款將在一年內到期。因此,它的負債總額比現金和短期應收賬款的總和多出99.3億人民幣。

Given Nongfu Spring has a humongous market capitalization of CN¥378.8b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, Nongfu Spring boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

鑑於農夫山泉擁有3788億人民幣的龐大市值,很難相信這些負債會構成很大威脅。但是,負債數量足以讓我們建議股東繼續關注資產負債表。因此,儘管負債不少,農夫山泉仍然有淨現金,因此可以公平地說它並沒有沉重的債務負擔!

In addition to that, we're happy to report that Nongfu Spring has boosted its EBIT by 34%, thus reducing the spectre of future debt repayments. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Nongfu Spring can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

除此之外,我們很高興地報告,農夫山泉的EBIT增長了34%,從而降低了未來債務償還的風險。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是首要的起點。但最終,業務未來的盈利能力將決定農夫山泉能否隨着時間的推移加強其資產負債表。因此,如果你關注未來,可以查看這份免費的報告,了解分析師的盈利預測。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. Nongfu Spring may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Over the most recent three years, Nongfu Spring recorded free cash flow worth 78% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

最後,雖然稅務部門可能喜歡會計利潤,但放貸人只接受冷硬的現金。農夫山泉可能在資產負債表上有淨現金,但看看企業在利息和稅之前的盈利(EBIT)如何轉化爲自由現金流仍然很有趣,因爲這將影響其對債務管理的需求和能力。在最近的三年中,農夫山泉的自由現金流佔其EBIT的78%,這在正常範圍內,因爲自由現金流不包括利息和稅。這筆冷硬的現金意味着它可以在想要的時候減少債務。

Summing Up

總結

We could understand if investors are concerned about Nongfu Spring's liabilities, but we can be reassured by the fact it has has net cash of CN¥15.2b. And we liked the look of last year's 34% year-on-year EBIT growth. So is Nongfu Spring's debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Nongfu Spring is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

我們可以理解投資者對農夫山泉負債的擔憂,但可以讓我們安心的是,它有淨現金152億人民幣。而且我們喜歡去年34%同比EBIT增長的表現。那麼農夫山泉的債務是個風險嗎?在我們看來似乎並不是。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到關於債務的大部分知識。但最終,每個公司都有可能存在資產負債表之外的風險。請注意,在我們的投資分析中,農夫山泉顯示出一個警告信號,您應該了解...

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

當然,如果你是那種喜歡購買沒有債務負擔的股票的投資者,那麼不要猶豫,今天就來發現我們獨家的淨現金成長股票列表。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有反饋?對內容有疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至 editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇來自Simply Wall St的文章是一般性的。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,採用無偏見的方法,我們的文章並不旨在提供財務建議。它不構成對任何股票的買入或賣出建議,也未考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您提供以基本數據驅動的長期分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St在提到的任何股票中均沒有持倉。

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