It's not a stretch to say that Louisiana-Pacific Corporation's (NYSE:LPX) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 19x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in the United States, where the median P/E ratio is around 19x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.
Recent times have been advantageous for Louisiana-Pacific as its earnings have been rising faster than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think this strong earnings performance might be about to tail off. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.
If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Louisiana-Pacific.
Does Growth Match The P/E?
The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/E like Louisiana-Pacific's is when the company's growth is tracking the market closely.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 287% gain to the company's bottom line. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen a very unpleasant 56% drop in EPS in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 5.2% per year as estimated by the eleven analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 11% each year growth forecast for the broader market.
In light of this, it's curious that Louisiana-Pacific's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.
The Key Takeaway
Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
We've established that Louisiana-Pacific currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
A lot of potential risks can sit within a company's balance sheet. Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis for Louisiana-Pacific with six simple checks on some of these key factors.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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