Is Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical (SZSE:300316) A Risky Investment?
Is Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical (SZSE:300316) A Risky Investment?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300316) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
有人說,波動性,而不是債務,是投資者思考風險的最佳方式,但禾倫·巴菲特曾說過一句名言:「波動性遠非風險的代名詞。」當你檢查公司的資產負債表的風險時,考慮它的資產負債表是很自然的,因爲企業倒閉時通常會涉及債務。與許多其他公司一樣,浙江晶盛機電有限公司(深圳證券交易所代碼:300316)也使用債務。但真正的問題是這筆債務是否使公司面臨風險。
When Is Debt Dangerous?
債務何時危險?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
一般而言,只有當公司無法通過籌集資金或用自己的現金流輕鬆還清債務時,債務才會成爲真正的問題。如果情況變得非常糟糕,貸款人可以控制業務。但是,更常見(但仍然令人痛苦)的情況是,它必須以低廉的價格籌集新的股本,從而永久稀釋股東。當然,許多公司使用債務爲增長提供資金,而不會產生任何負面影響。當我們考慮公司使用債務時,我們首先將現金和債務放在一起考慮。
What Is Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical's Net Debt?
浙江晶盛機電的淨負債是多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2024 Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical had debt of CN¥2.30b, up from CN¥1.71b in one year. However, its balance sheet shows it holds CN¥3.30b in cash, so it actually has CN¥996.0m net cash.
您可以點擊下圖查看更多詳情,該圖片顯示,截至2024年9月,浙江晶盛機電的債務爲23元人民幣,高於一年內的17.1元人民幣。但是,其資產負債表顯示它持有33元人民幣的現金,因此它實際上擁有99600萬元人民幣的淨現金。
How Healthy Is Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical's Balance Sheet?
浙江晶盛機電的資產負債表有多健康?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical had liabilities of CN¥14.2b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥1.41b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥3.30b as well as receivables valued at CN¥6.64b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥5.66b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
我們可以從最新的資產負債表中看出,浙江晶盛機電的負債爲142元人民幣,一年後到期的負債爲14.1元人民幣。除了這些債務外,它還有33元人民幣的現金以及價值66.4元人民幣的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,其負債總額比其現金和短期應收賬款的總額高出56.6元人民幣。
Given Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical has a market capitalization of CN¥42.9b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time. While it does have liabilities worth noting, Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical also has more cash than debt, so we're pretty confident it can manage its debt safely.
鑑於浙江晶盛機電的市值爲429元人民幣,很難相信這些負債會構成很大的威脅。但是,我們確實認爲值得關注其資產負債表的實力,因爲它可能會隨着時間的推移而發生變化。儘管它確實有值得注意的負債,但浙江晶盛機電的現金也多於債務,因此我們非常有信心它可以安全地管理債務。
But the bad news is that Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical has seen its EBIT plunge 11% in the last twelve months. If that rate of decline in earnings continues, the company could find itself in a tight spot. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
但壞消息是,浙江晶盛機電的息稅前利潤在過去十二個月中下降了11%。如果收益的下降速度持續下去,該公司可能會陷入困境。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但是,未來收益將決定浙江晶盛機電未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Over the last three years, Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical barely recorded positive free cash flow, in total. Some might say that's a concern, when it comes considering how easily it would be for it to down debt.
最後,企業需要自由現金流來償還債務;會計利潤根本無法減少債務。浙江晶盛機電的資產負債表上可能有淨現金,但仍然值得關注的是該企業如何將其利息稅前收益(EBIT)轉換爲自由現金流,因爲這將影響其對債務的需求和管理能力。在過去的三年中,浙江晶盛機電總共幾乎沒有實現正的自由現金流。考慮到降低債務有多容易,有人可能會說這是一個問題。
Summing Up
總結一下
Although Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical's balance sheet isn't particularly strong, due to the total liabilities, it is clearly positive to see that it has net cash of CN¥996.0m. So we are not troubled with Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical's debt use. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical (including 1 which can't be ignored) .
儘管由於負債總額,浙江晶盛機電的資產負債表並不是特別強勁,但其淨現金爲99600萬元人民幣顯然是樂觀的。因此,我們對浙江晶盛機電的債務使用並不感到困擾。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但歸根結底,每家公司都可以控制資產負債表之外存在的風險。爲此,你應該了解我們在浙江晶盛機電發現的3個警告標誌(包括一個不容忽視的警告)。
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
當然,如果你是那種喜歡在沒有債務負擔的情況下購買股票的投資者,那麼立即查看我們的淨現金增長股票的獨家清單。
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