Gold Poised For Its Best Year In A Decade While Bitcoin Surges: Analysts Eye 2025 As A Golden Era For Precious Metal Amid Michael Saylor's Push For BTC As A Reserve Asset
Gold Poised For Its Best Year In A Decade While Bitcoin Surges: Analysts Eye 2025 As A Golden Era For Precious Metal Amid Michael Saylor's Push For BTC As A Reserve Asset
Analysts predict a good year for gold in 2025 after it's poised for the best annual performance in over a decade in 2024. However, Michael Saylor, co-founder and executive chairman of MicroStrategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR), has called for a dramatic shift in U.S. economic strategy, urging the country to abandon gold as a reserve asset in favor of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC).
分析師預測,2025年黃金將迎來豐收的一年,此前黃金有望在2024年創下十多年來的最佳年度表現。但是,微策略公司(納斯達克股票代碼:MSTR)的聯合創始人兼執行董事長邁克爾·塞勒呼籲美國經濟戰略發生重大轉變,敦促該國放棄將黃金作爲儲備資產,轉而使用比特幣(加密貨幣:BTC)。
What Happened: The World Gold Council in its 2025 outlook has outlined three scenarios for the precious metal in the upcoming year. According to them, gold will "remain rangebound" if existing market expectations are correct.
發生了什麼:世界黃金協會在其2025年展望中概述了來年貴金屬的三種情景。他們認爲,如果現有的市場預期是正確的,黃金將 「保持區間波動」。
Explaining its rationale for the rangebound assertion, the council notes that "a combination of higher rates and lower economic growth could negatively affect investors and consumers."
該委員會在解釋其區間波動主張的理由時指出,「更高的利率和較低的經濟增長相結合,可能會對投資者和消費者產生負面影響。」
On the flip side, "significantly lower interest rates or a deterioration in geopolitics or market conditions will improve gold's performance."
另一方面,「大幅降低利率或地緣政治或市場狀況惡化將改善黃金的表現。」
JPMorgan has said that it expects gold prices to "find continued support from central banks, particularly in emerging markets. Critically, gold—the original safe-haven asset—can serve as an attractive hedge against both geopolitical risk and uncertainty around sovereign debt and deficits."
摩根大通曾表示,預計黃金價格將 「得到中央銀行的持續支持,尤其是在新興市場。至關重要的是,黃金——最初的避險資產——可以作爲一種有吸引力的對沖工具,以抵禦地緣政治風險以及主權債務和赤字的不確定性。」
Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, forecasts gold prices will reach $2,700 by early next year, "buoyed by interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and gold purchases by emerging market central banks. The metal could get an additional boost if the U.S. imposes new financial sanctions or if concerns mount about the U.S. debt burden."
另一方面,高盛預測,到明年初,金價將達到2700美元,「受聯儲局減息和新興市場中央銀行購買黃金的推動。如果美國實施新的金融制裁或對美國債務負擔的擔憂加劇,則該金屬可能會獲得額外的提振。」
Bitcoin Bulls Disagree
比特幣多頭不同意
Despite a largely positive outlook for gold in 2025, few Bitcoin bulls think differently. Speaking on an episode of the Galaxy Brains podcast, Saylor labeled gold as a "shiny dead rock."
儘管2025年黃金前景基本樂觀,但很少有比特幣多頭有不同的看法。在Galaxy Brains播客的一集中發表講話時,塞勒將黃金標記爲 「閃亮的死石」。
"If you want to elevate the U.S.'s economic leadership in the world, there are two very simple strategies," Saylor said. "Dump the gold and buy Bitcoin."
「如果你想提升美國的地位。」作爲世界經濟領導者,有兩種非常簡單的策略,” 塞勒說。「拋售黃金併購買比特幣。」
He suggested that replacing gold with Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset would allow the U.S. to demonetize gold—an asset heavily held by rival nations—and capitalize on Bitcoin's growth potential.
他建議,用比特幣代替黃金作爲戰略儲備資產將使美國能夠將黃金——一種由敵對國家大量持有的資產——取消貨幣化,並利用比特幣的增長潛力。
Price Action: Gold spot prices have risen by 28.63% year-to-date, according to Benzinga Pro data. This is gold's best performance since 2007 when gold surged by over 31%.
價格走勢:根據Benzinga Pro的數據,今年迄今爲止,黃金現貨價格已上漲28.63%。這是自2007年金價飆升超過31%以來黃金的最佳表現。
Here's how a few other gold ETFs have performed this year.
以下是今年其他幾隻黃金ETF的表現。
ETFs | YTD Performance |
Franklin Responsibly Sourced Gold ETF (NYSE:FGDL) | 29.07% |
iShares Gold Trust Micro (NYSE:IAUM) | 28.52% |
SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (NYSE:GLDM) | 28.55% |
Aberdeen Physical Gold Shares ETF (NYSE:SGOL) | 28.46% |
交易所買賣基金 | 年度業績 |
富蘭克林負責任採購黃金ETF(紐約證券交易所代碼:FGDL) | 29.07% |
iShares Gold Trust Micro(紐約證券交易所代碼:IAUM) | 28.52% |
SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust(紐約證券交易所代碼:GLDM) | 28.55% |
安本實物黃金股票ETF(紐約證券交易所代碼:SGOL) | 28.46% |
In comparison, Bitcoin ETFs have surged over four times during the same period.
相比之下,比特幣ETF在同期飆升了四倍多。
ETF | YTD Performance |
Franklin Responsibly Sourced Gold ETF (NYSE:FBTC) | 138.83% |
Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (NYSE:BITC) | 123.13% |
ETF | 年度業績 |
富蘭克林負責任採購黃金ETF(紐約證券交易所代碼:FBTC) | 138.83% |
Grayscale 比特幣迷你信託(紐約證券交易所代碼:BITC) | 123.13% |
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Photo courtesy: Shutterstock
照片來源:Shutterstock