Developer sales in December are expected to fall significantly.
November saw 2,557 new private home sales, the highest number of new units sold in a single month since 2,793 units were shifted in March 2013, however, analysts say this surge is just temporary as interest was mostly fueled by six back-to-back launches in the month.
The six projects alone accounted for 82% of new home sales. These are from Union Square Residences, The Collective at One Sophia, Chuan Park, Nava Grove, and Emerald of Katong – collectively shifted 2,106 units. Meanwhile, the other new project, Novo Place EC sold 289 units in November.
The top three projects were Emerald of Katong saw strong demand, with 99.3% of its units sold during the launch month. Chuan Park also saw strong buyer interest last month, with 78.7% of its units sold, due to its prime location near Lorong Chuan MRT station and easy access to the central region via public transport.
Meanwhile, Nava Grove also achieved strong sales, with nearly 70% of its units sold.
Christine Sun, Chief Researcher & Strategist at OrangeTee said the surge in sales is temporary.
"Throughout 2024, new home demand has been subdued, primarily due to the lack of significant private project launches. Notably, sales during the first three quarters of 2024 amounted to only 3,049 units, the lowest Q1 to Q3 figures recorded since 2004, the year when data from URA first became available," Sun said.
Wong Siew Ying, Head of Research & Content, PropNex Realty agreed, saying that November's robust sales have to be seen in context and do not automatically imply that an unfettered resurgence is upon the private housing market.
"Buyers, by and large, remain discerning and continue to take a long-term view of their property purchase. We note that projects that are centrally-located with a higher entry price had more measured take-up rates in November. Given the lack of new project launches in December, we expect developers' sales to fall significantly from that of November. For the full-year 2024, we project that new home sales could range from 6,500 to 7,000 units excluding EC," Wong said.
Analysts also expect a significant drop in sales in December, but will pick up on Q1 2025.
In Jan 2025, Bagnall Haus and The Orie will be launched for sale before the Lunar New Year. Five launches are planned for the month of Feb 2025 after the Lunar New Year. These launches are Aurea, Aurelle of Tampines (EC), Elta, Lentor Central Residences and Parktown Residence. Huttons Data Analytics is cautiously optimistic about a better performance in the sales market in 2025. Some of the unsatiated demand in 2024 may flow over to the launches in Q1 2025," Lee Sze Teck, Senior Director, Data Analytics at Huttons said.
Leonard Tay, Head, of Research at Knight Frank Singapore, however, cautioned that 2025 is likely to become more volatile as geo-political tensions continue to increase as the year closes.
"Especially with greater uncertainty in the Middle East and the current impasse in Ukraine. A second Trump presidency with warning shots of more tariffs and protectionist policies might affect businesses all over the world, affecting the flow of trade and the global economy. Should these combine to affect Singapore's improving economy and the job market, homebuying demand might revert back to the sidelines as it did for much of 2024," Tay said.
11月份新增私人住宅銷售量爲2,557套,這是自2013年3月轉移2793套住宅以來單月銷售量的最高水平。但是,分析師表示,這種激增只是暫時的,因爲興趣主要是由該月連續六次推出的推動的。
僅這六個項目就佔新屋銷售的82%。這些單位來自聯合廣場住宅、索菲亞一號的集體住宅、川公園、納瓦格羅夫和加東翡翠——共轉移了2,106套住房。同時,另一個新項目Novo Place EC在11月售出了289套住房。
排名前三的項目是加東翡翠,需求強勁,其單位在發佈月份售出99.3%。上個月,Chuan Park也引起了強烈的買家興趣,其單位售出78.7%,這要歸因於其靠近羅龍川地鐵站的黃金地段,並且可通過公共交通輕鬆前往中部地區。
同時,Nava Grove也實現了強勁的銷售額,其單位已售出近70%。
OrangeTee首席研究員兼策略師克里斯汀·孫表示,銷售額的激增是暫時的。
「在整個2024年,新房需求一直受到抑制,這主要是由於缺乏重要的私人項目啓動。值得注意的是,2024年前三個季度的銷量僅爲3,049套,這是自2004年市建局首次公佈數據以來第一季度至第三季度的最低水平,」 孫說。
Propnex Realty研究與內容主管黃秀英表示同意,他說11月份的強勁銷售必須從背景來看,並不自動意味着私人住房市場將不受限制地復甦。
「總的來說,買家仍然挑剔,並繼續從長遠的角度看待他們的房地產購買。我們注意到,位於市中心且入門價格較高的項目在11月份的接受率更高。鑑於12月份沒有推出新項目,我們預計開發商的銷售額將比11月大幅下降。對於2024年全年,我們預計,不包括歐共體,新屋銷售量可能在6,500至7,000套之間,」 黃說。
分析師還預計,12月份的銷售額將大幅下降,但將在2025年第一季度回升。
2025年1月,Bagnall Haus和The Orie將在農曆新年前推出發售。計劃在農曆新年之後的2025年2月進行五次發射。這些新推出的產品包括Aurea、淡濱尼的Aurelle(EC)、Elta、Lentor Central Residences和Parktown Residence。赫頓的數據分析對2025年銷售市場的改善持謹慎樂觀態度。2024 年部分未得到滿足的需求可能會流向 2025 年第一季度的推出。” 哈頓數據分析高級董事李思泰克說。
但是,新加坡萊坊研究主管倫納德·泰警告說,隨着年底地緣政治緊張局勢的持續加劇,2025年可能會變得更加動盪。
「尤其是在中東不確定性增加和烏克蘭目前陷入僵局的情況下。特朗普在第二次總統任期內發出更多關稅和保護主義政策的警告,可能會影響世界各地的企業,影響貿易流動和全球經濟。如果這些因素共同影響新加坡經濟和就業市場的改善,購房需求可能會像2024年的大部分時間一樣恢復觀望狀態,」 泰說。