Is Kimberly-Clark (NYSE:KMB) Using Too Much Debt?
Is Kimberly-Clark (NYSE:KMB) Using Too Much Debt?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Kimberly-Clark Corporation (NYSE:KMB) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
霍華德·馬克斯說得很好,他提到與其擔心股價波動,不如說「我擔心的風險是永久性損失的可能性……我認識的每個實用投資者也都在擔心這個。」當我們考慮一家公司有多危險時,我們總是喜歡看看它的債務使用情況,因爲債務負擔過重可能導致破產。我們可以看到金佰利公司(紐交所:KMB)在其業務中確實使用了債務。但這筆債務對股東來說是個擔憂嗎?
When Is Debt A Problem?
何時債務成爲問題?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
當企業無法輕鬆履行這些義務時,債務和其他負債就變得有風險,無論是通過自由現金流還是以有吸引力的價格籌集資金。最終,如果公司無法履行其償還債務的法律義務,股東可能會一無所獲。雖然這種情況並不常見,但我們經常看到舉債的公司因爲貸款人迫使他們以緊急價格籌集資金而永久性稀釋股東。當然,許多公司使用債務來資助增長,而沒有任何負面後果。在考慮公司的債務水平時,第一步是同時考慮其現金和債務。
What Is Kimberly-Clark's Net Debt?
金佰利的淨債務是多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Kimberly-Clark had debt of US$7.48b at the end of September 2024, a reduction from US$8.30b over a year. However, it also had US$1.11b in cash, and so its net debt is US$6.37b.
下面的圖片,您可以點擊查看更多細節,顯示到2024年9月底金佰利的債務爲74.8億美元,較一年前的83億美元有所減少。然而,它也有11.1億美元的現金,因此其淨債務爲63.7億美元。
How Healthy Is Kimberly-Clark's Balance Sheet?
金佰利的資產負債表健康嗎?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Kimberly-Clark had liabilities of US$7.07b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$8.66b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$1.11b as well as receivables valued at US$2.23b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$12.4b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
根據最後報告的資產負債表,金佰利的負債爲70.7億美元,12個月內到期,超過12個月到期的負債爲86.6億美元。抵消這些義務,它擁有現金11.1億美元,以及價值22.3億美元的應收賬款,這些應收賬款在12個月內到期。因此,它的負債總額比現金和短期應收賬款的總和多出124億美元。
This deficit isn't so bad because Kimberly-Clark is worth a massive US$43.8b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
這個缺口並不算太糟,因爲金佰利的價值高達438億美元,因此如果需要的話,它可能能夠籌集足夠的資本來鞏固其資產負債表。但很明顯,我們肯定應該仔細檢查它是否能在不稀釋的情況下管理其債務。
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
我們使用兩個主要比率來了解相對於收益的債務水平。第一個是淨債務除以息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITDA),而第二個是它的息稅前利潤(EBIT)覆蓋其利息支出的次數(或者簡稱爲利息覆蓋率)。這樣,我們同時考慮債務的絕對數量以及所支付的利率。
Kimberly-Clark's net debt to EBITDA ratio of about 1.6 suggests only moderate use of debt. And its commanding EBIT of 15.2 times its interest expense, implies the debt load is as light as a peacock feather. The good news is that Kimberly-Clark has increased its EBIT by 7.8% over twelve months, which should ease any concerns about debt repayment. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Kimberly-Clark's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
金佰利的淨債務與EBITDA比率約爲1.6,這表明債務使用僅爲適中。並且其EBIT是利息費用的15.2倍,這意味着債務負擔輕得像孔雀羽毛。好消息是,金佰利在過去12個月中將EBIT提高了7.8%,這應該緩解任何關於債務還款的擔憂。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是最明顯的起點。但未來的收益,遠比其他任何東西,都將判斷金佰利未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果你關注未來,可以查看這份顯示分析師利潤預測的自由報告。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Kimberly-Clark generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 85% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.
最後,儘管稅務官可能喜歡會計利潤,但貸方只接受冷硬現金。因此,我們總是檢查EBIT中有多少轉化爲自由現金流。在過去三年中,金佰利產生的自由現金流達到了其EBIT的85%,這比我們預期的要多。這使其在償還債務時處於非常強的位置。
Our View
我們的觀點
Kimberly-Clark's interest cover suggests it can handle its debt as easily as Cristiano Ronaldo could score a goal against an under 14's goalkeeper. And the good news does not stop there, as its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow also supports that impression! Taking all this data into account, it seems to us that Kimberly-Clark takes a pretty sensible approach to debt. That means they are taking on a bit more risk, in the hope of boosting shareholder returns. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Kimberly-Clark you should be aware of.
金佰利的利息覆蓋率表明,它處理債務的能力和克里斯蒂亞諾·羅納爾多面對14歲以下的守門員時進球的輕鬆程度相似。而且,好消息不僅於此,它將EBIT轉化爲自由現金流的效果也支持了這種印象!綜合考慮這些數據,我們認爲金佰利在債務管理上採取了相當合理的策略。這意味着他們承受了一些額外風險,以期提高股東回報。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是一個起點。然而,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表內,遠不止於此。舉個例子:我們發現了1個金佰利你應該注意的警告信號。
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
無論最終結果如何,有時候更容易關注那些根本不需要債務的公司。讀者可以立即免費獲取一份淨債務爲零的成長股列表。
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