Southwest Airlines Co.'s (NYSE:LUV) Popularity With Investors Is Under Threat From Overpricing
Southwest Airlines Co.'s (NYSE:LUV) Popularity With Investors Is Under Threat From Overpricing
There wouldn't be many who think Southwest Airlines Co.'s (NYSE:LUV) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.7x is worth a mention when the median P/S for the Airlines industry in the United States is similar at about 0.6x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.
How Has Southwest Airlines Performed Recently?
Recent revenue growth for Southwest Airlines has been in line with the industry. Perhaps the market is expecting future revenue performance to show no drastic signs of changing, justifying the P/S being at current levels. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this can at least be maintained so that you could pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.
Keen to find out how analysts think Southwest Airlines' future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.How Is Southwest Airlines' Revenue Growth Trending?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Southwest Airlines' to be considered reasonable.
If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 7.6%. Pleasingly, revenue has also lifted 115% in aggregate from three years ago, partly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have definitely welcomed those medium-term rates of revenue growth.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest revenue should grow by 4.6% per annum over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to expand by 125% each year, which is noticeably more attractive.
In light of this, it's curious that Southwest Airlines' P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.
The Final Word
Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
Our look at the analysts forecasts of Southwest Airlines' revenue prospects has shown that its inferior revenue outlook isn't negatively impacting its P/S as much as we would have predicted. When we see companies with a relatively weaker revenue outlook compared to the industry, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/S lower. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Southwest Airlines that you should be aware of.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.