We Think Western Superconducting Technologies (SHSE:688122) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
We Think Western Superconducting Technologies (SHSE:688122) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Western Superconducting Technologies Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688122) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
大衛·伊本曾很好地指出,'波動性不是我們關心的風險。我們關心的是避免永久性資本損失。' 當我們考慮一家公司有多大風險時,我們總是喜歡觀察其債務使用情況,因爲債務負擔過重可能導致破產。與許多其他公司一樣,西部超導科技有限公司(SHSE:688122)也在使用債務。但更重要的問題是:這些債務帶來了多少風險?
When Is Debt A Problem?
何時債務成爲問題?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
當一家企業無法輕鬆履行這些義務時,債務和其他負債便會變得有風險,無論是通過自由現金流還是以吸引人的價格融資。資本主義的重要組成部分是'創造性破壞'的過程,在這個過程中,失敗的企業被其銀行毫不留情地清算。然而,更常見(但仍然代價高昂)的情況是,一家公司必須以廉價的股價稀釋股東,僅僅是爲了控制債務。當然,債務的好處在於,它通常代表了廉價資本,尤其是當它替代了能夠以高回報率再投資的公司的稀釋時。當我們考慮一家公司的債務使用情況時,我們首先將現金和債務放在一起分析。
How Much Debt Does Western Superconducting Technologies Carry?
西部超導科技的債務有多少?
As you can see below, Western Superconducting Technologies had CN¥2.64b of debt, at September 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it also had CN¥2.11b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥533.5m.
如您所見,西部超導科技在2024年9月的債務爲26.4億人民幣,和前一年差不多。您可以點擊圖表獲取更多詳細信息。然而,它也有21.1億人民幣的現金,因此其淨債務爲53350萬人民幣。

A Look At Western Superconducting Technologies' Liabilities
看看西部超導的負債
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Western Superconducting Technologies had liabilities of CN¥4.26b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥1.34b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥2.11b as well as receivables valued at CN¥4.00b due within 12 months. So it can boast CN¥513.6m more liquid assets than total liabilities.
我們可以從最新的資產負債表中看到,西部超導有42.6億人民幣的負債在一年內到期,還有13.4億人民幣的負債在更長時間到期。抵消這些負債,它有21.1億人民幣的現金,以及價值40億人民幣的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,它的流動資產比總負債多出51360萬人民幣。
Having regard to Western Superconducting Technologies' size, it seems that its liquid assets are well balanced with its total liabilities. So it's very unlikely that the CN¥28.5b company is short on cash, but still worth keeping an eye on the balance sheet.
考慮到西部超導的規模,它的流動資產與其總負債相對平衡。因此,這家市值285億人民幣的公司不太可能短缺現金,但仍值得關注資產負債表。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
爲了衡量一家公司相對於其收益的債務水平,我們計算其淨負債與利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)的比率,以及其利息和稅項前利潤(EBIT)與其利息支出(利息支付比率)的比率。因此,我們考慮了包括和不包括折舊和攤銷費用的收益相對於債務的情況。
Western Superconducting Technologies has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.57. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 16.1 times the size. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. On the other hand, Western Superconducting Technologies saw its EBIT drop by 7.3% in the last twelve months. If earnings continue to decline at that rate the company may have increasing difficulty managing its debt load. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Western Superconducting Technologies can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
西部超導的淨債務與EBITDA比率僅爲0.57,較低。它的EBIT輕鬆覆蓋了利息支出,比例爲16.1倍。因此,我們對其非常保守的債務使用感到相當輕鬆。另一方面,西部超導的EBIT在過去12個月下降了7.3%。如果收益繼續以這樣的速度下降,公司可能會在管理債務負擔方面面臨越來越大的困難。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的大部分關於債務的知識。然而,最終業務的未來盈利能力將決定西部超導是否能夠隨着時間的推移加強其資產負債表。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的看法,可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告非常有趣。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, Western Superconducting Technologies recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is far more risky for companies with unreliable free cash flow, so shareholders should be hoping that the past expenditure will produce free cash flow in the future.
但我們最後的考慮也很重要,因爲一家公司不能用紙面利潤來償還債務;它需要真金白銀的現金。因此,合理的步驟是查看EBIT中與實際自由現金流相匹配的比例。在過去三年中,西部超導的自由現金流總計爲負。對自由現金流不可靠的公司來說,債務風險更高,因此股東應該希望過去的支出能夠在未來產生自由現金流。
Our View
我們的觀點
On our analysis Western Superconducting Technologies's interest cover should signal that it won't have too much trouble with its debt. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. In particular, conversion of EBIT to free cash flow gives us cold feet. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about Western Superconducting Technologies's use of debt. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Western Superconducting Technologies that you should be aware of before investing here.
根據我們的分析,西部超導的利息覆蓋率應該表明其債務問題不會太嚴重。但是,我們之前提到的其他因素卻不那麼令人鼓舞。尤其是,EBIT轉化爲自由現金流讓我們有些不安。考慮到上述所有因素,我們對西部超導債務的使用感到有些謹慎。雖然債務在提高潛在回報方面確實有其好處,但我們認爲股東們應該考慮債務水平如何讓股票變得更具風險。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是一個好的起點。然而,並非所有投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。例如,我們發現了兩條西部超導的警告信號,您應該在這裏投資前了解一下。
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
無論最終結果如何,有時候更容易關注那些根本不需要債務的公司。讀者可以立即免費獲取一份淨債務爲零的成長股列表。
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