Another Tepid Year Ahead For The Technology Sector?

科技行業又將迎來不溫不火的一年？

Kenanga IB said it is maintaining its NEUTRAL recommendation on the technology sector. In the recent forecast released by SEMI, the house said it noted that there is a slowdown in growth for the sale of assembly and packaging (A&P) equipment in 2025 before picking up pace in 2026. This could allude to another year of tepid growth for the outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) companies which was similarly observed this year. This supported its NEUTRAL stance for the sector in 2025.

Premised on this, it anticipates the pace of recovery will be varied for companies across the different value chains. Thus, it views that companies well positioned in the AI-related supply chain should perform better as compared to its peers.

According to SEMI, the global sales of total semiconductor manufacturing equipment by original equipment manufacturers are forecasted to continue to grow in 2025 and 2026 by +7.7%yoy and +14.8%yoy respectively. This is a continuation of an expected growth of +6.5%yoy for 2024. SEMI commented that the improvement in outlook since July 2024 was mainly driven by stronger-than expected investment from China and AI-related sectors

Front-end segment taking the lead. Meanwhile, sales of wafer fab equipment will remain encouraging, growing by USD6.81b to breach the USD100b mark. This reflects the ongoing strong equipment investments in DRAM and high band width memory (HBM), driven by AI computing.

Kenanga notes that for 2025, the sale of A&P equipment is expected to grow by USD0.79b to USD5.73b, a slower pace of +16.0%yoy as compared to 2024 of +22.6%yoy. In comparison, the test equipment market was more optimistic in 2025 with sales expected to reach USD8.18b, a faster pace of USD1.04b or +14.6%yoy. All in all, the growth in the back-end segment will be supported by a gradual recovery in demand for the end markets namely mobile, automotive, and industrial as well as high-performance computing which form the backbone of AI. With the encouraging growth in the front-end segment, there should be better overall sector growth in 2026

Kenanga Ib表示，它將維持其對科技行業的中立建議。在SEMI最近發佈的預測中，該公司表示，2025年組裝和包裝（A＆P）設備的銷售增長放緩，然後在2026年加快步伐。這可能意味着外包半導體組裝和測試（OSAT）公司又將持續一年的不溫不火增長，今年也出現了類似的情況。這支持了其在2025年對該行業的中立立場。

在此基礎上，它預計不同價值鏈中公司的復甦步伐將有所不同。因此，它認爲，與同行相比，在人工智能相關供應鏈中處於有利地位的公司應該表現得更好。

根據SEMI的數據，預計原始設備製造商的半導體制造設備的全球總銷售額將在2025年和2026年繼續分別同比增長7.7％和同比增長14.8％。這是2024年預期同比增長6.5％的延續。SEMI評論說，自2024年7月以來前景的改善主要是由中國和人工智能相關領域的投資強於預期推動的

前端細分市場處於領先地位。同時，晶圓廠設備的銷售仍將令人鼓舞，增長68.1美元，突破1000美元大關。這反映了在人工智能計算的推動下，對DRAM和高帶寬存儲器（HBM）的持續強勁設備投資。

凱南加指出，到2025年，A＆P設備的銷售額預計將增長7.9美元，至57.3美元，與2024年的同比增長22.6％相比，同比增長16.0％。相比之下，2025年的測試設備市場更爲樂觀，預計銷售額將達到81.8美元，增速更快，爲10.4美元，同比增長14.6％。總而言之，後端細分市場的增長將受到終端市場（移動、汽車、工業以及構成人工智能支柱的高性能計算）需求的逐步恢復的支持。隨着前端細分市場的令人鼓舞的增長，2026年的整體行業增長應該會更好

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Another Tepid Year Ahead For The Technology Sector?

Another Tepid Year Ahead For The Technology Sector?

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