We Think Shenzhen Kaizhong Precision Technology (SZSE:002823) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
We Think Shenzhen Kaizhong Precision Technology (SZSE:002823) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Shenzhen Kaizhong Precision Technology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002823) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
有人說波動性而非債務是投資者評估風險的最佳方式,但禾倫·巴菲特曾明確表示,『波動性遠非風險的同義詞。』所以聰明的錢知道,債務——通常與破產相關聯——在評估一家公司的風險時是非常重要的因素。我們注意到,凱中精密科技有限公司(SZSE:002823)確實在其資產負債表上負有債務。但股東是否應該擔心其債務使用呢?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
債務帶來了什麼風險?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
一般來說,債務只有在公司無法輕易償還時才會成爲真正的問題,無論是通過籌集資金還是通過自身現金流。資本主義的一部分就是'創造性破壞'的過程,失敗的企業被他們的銀行無情地清算。然而,更常見(但仍然痛苦)的情景是,它必須以低價籌集新的股本,從而永久性地稀釋股東。話雖如此,最常見的情況是公司合理管理其債務,併爲自己謀取利益。當我們檢查債務水平時,首先會同時考慮現金和債務水平。
How Much Debt Does Shenzhen Kaizhong Precision Technology Carry?
凱中精密科技的債務有多少?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Shenzhen Kaizhong Precision Technology had CN¥1.10b of debt in September 2024, down from CN¥1.66b, one year before. On the flip side, it has CN¥103.8m in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥1.00b.
您可以單擊下面的圖表查看歷史數字,但它顯示凱中精密科技在2024年9月的債務爲11億人民幣,相比之下,去年同期爲16.6億人民幣。另一方面,它擁有10380萬現金,導致淨債務約爲10億人民幣。
A Look At Shenzhen Kaizhong Precision Technology's Liabilities
深圳凱中精密的負債情況概覽
According to the last reported balance sheet, Shenzhen Kaizhong Precision Technology had liabilities of CN¥1.17b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥496.7m due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥103.8m and CN¥594.2m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CN¥964.3m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
根據最後報告的資產負債表,深圳凱中精密在12個月內的負債爲11.7億人民幣,超過12個月的負債爲49670萬人民幣。另一方面,它有10380萬人民幣的現金和59420萬人民幣的應收賬款在一年內到期。因此,它的負債總額爲96430萬人民幣,超過其現金和短期應收款項的總和。
Shenzhen Kaizhong Precision Technology has a market capitalization of CN¥4.66b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
深圳凱中精密的市值爲46.6億人民幣,因此,如果需要,極有可能籌集資金以改善其資產負債表。然而,仔細觀察其償債能力仍然是值得的。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
我們通過看淨債務與息稅折舊及攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)的比率,以及計算其息稅前利潤(EBIT)如何輕鬆地覆蓋利息費用(利息覆蓋)來衡量一家公司相對於其獲利能力的債務負擔。這樣,我們既考慮了債務的絕對量,也考慮了其支付的利率。
Shenzhen Kaizhong Precision Technology has net debt worth 2.4 times EBITDA, which isn't too much, but its interest cover looks a bit on the low side, with EBIT at only 3.7 times the interest expense. While that doesn't worry us too much, it does suggest the interest payments are somewhat of a burden. Pleasingly, Shenzhen Kaizhong Precision Technology is growing its EBIT faster than former Australian PM Bob Hawke downs a yard glass, boasting a 145% gain in the last twelve months. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Shenzhen Kaizhong Precision Technology will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
深圳凱中精密的淨債務是EBITDA的2.4倍,這不算多,但其利息覆蓋率看起來有點低,EBIT僅爲利息支出的3.7倍。雖然這讓我們不太擔心,但確實表明利息支付在一定程度上是一個負擔。值得欣慰的是,深圳凱中精密的EBIT增速快於前澳大利亞總理鮑勃·霍克喝下大杯的速度,在過去的十二個月裏增長了145%。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的大部分知識都與債務有關。但你不能完全孤立地看待債務;因爲深圳凱中精密需要盈利來服務這些債務。因此,在考慮債務時,查看盈利趨勢絕對是值得的。點擊這裏查看互動快照。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Shenzhen Kaizhong Precision Technology produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 53% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
但我們最終的考慮同樣重要,因爲公司不能用紙面利潤來償還債務;它需要實實在在的現金。因此,值得檢查其中有多少EBIT得到了自由現金流的支持。在過去三年中,深圳凱中精密產生的自由現金流相當於其EBIT的53%,大約是我們所期望的。這一自由現金流使公司在適當的時候有良好的償債能力。
Our View
我們的觀點
Happily, Shenzhen Kaizhong Precision Technology's impressive EBIT growth rate implies it has the upper hand on its debt. But truth be told we feel its interest cover does undermine this impression a bit. Looking at all the aforementioned factors together, it strikes us that Shenzhen Kaizhong Precision Technology can handle its debt fairly comfortably. On the plus side, this leverage can boost shareholder returns, but the potential downside is more risk of loss, so it's worth monitoring the balance sheet. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 3 warning signs with Shenzhen Kaizhong Precision Technology , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
令人欣慰的是,凱中精密令人印象深刻的EBIT增長率表明它在債務上佔據優勢。但坦白說,我們覺得其利息覆蓋率確實在某種程度上削弱了這種印象。綜合考慮所有上述因素,我們認爲凱中精密可以相對輕鬆地處理其債務。好的一面是,這種槓桿可以提升股東回報,但潛在的 downside 是損失風險的增加,因此值得關注資產負債表。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是一個很好的起點。但歸根結底,每家公司都有可能存在不在資產負債表上的風險。我們識別了凱中精密的三個預警信號,理解它們應該是你投資過程的一部分。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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