Daqin Railway (SHSE:601006) Has A Pretty Healthy Balance Sheet
Daqin Railway (SHSE:601006) Has A Pretty Healthy Balance Sheet
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. (SHSE:601006) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
傳奇基金經理李露(由查理·芒格支持)曾經說過:「最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久的資本損失。」當我們考慮一家公司的風險時,我們總是喜歡考慮其債務的用途,因爲債務過載可能導致破產。我們可以看到,大秦鐵路有限公司(SHSE: 601006)確實在其業務中使用了債務。但是這筆債務是股東關心的問題嗎?
When Is Debt A Problem?
債務何時成爲問題?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
債務可以幫助企業,直到企業難以償還債務,無論是新資本還是自由現金流。最終,如果公司無法履行償還債務的法律義務,股東可能會一無所獲。但是,更頻繁(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,公司必須以低廉的價格發行股票,永久稀釋股東,以支撐其資產負債表。當然,債務可以成爲企業的重要工具,尤其是資本密集型企業。在考慮企業使用多少債務時,要做的第一件事是同時考慮其現金和債務。
What Is Daqin Railway's Debt?
大秦鐵路的債務是多少?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Daqin Railway had CN¥22.5b of debt in September 2024, down from CN¥39.6b, one year before. But it also has CN¥63.2b in cash to offset that, meaning it has CN¥40.7b net cash.
你可以點擊下圖查看歷史數字,但它顯示大秦鐵路在2024年9月有225元人民幣的債務,低於一年前的396元人民幣。但它也有632元人民幣的現金來抵消這一點,這意味着它的淨現金爲407元人民幣。
How Healthy Is Daqin Railway's Balance Sheet?
大秦鐵路的資產負債表有多健康?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Daqin Railway had liabilities of CN¥14.8b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥24.3b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥63.2b as well as receivables valued at CN¥15.7b due within 12 months. So it can boast CN¥39.7b more liquid assets than total liabilities.
我們可以從最新的資產負債表中看出,大秦鐵路的負債爲148元人民幣,一年後到期的負債爲243元人民幣。除這些債務外,它有632元人民幣的現金和價值157元人民幣的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,它擁有比總負債多397元人民幣的流動資產。
This surplus strongly suggests that Daqin Railway has a rock-solid balance sheet (and the debt is of no concern whatsoever). On this view, lenders should feel as safe as the beloved of a black-belt karate master. Simply put, the fact that Daqin Railway has more cash than debt is arguably a good indication that it can manage its debt safely.
這種盈餘強烈表明大秦鐵路的資產負債表堅如磐石(債務根本不用擔心)。從這個角度來看,貸款人應該像黑帶空手道大師心愛的人一樣感到安全。簡而言之,大秦鐵路的現金多於債務這一事實可以說是一個很好的跡象,表明它可以安全地管理債務。
On the other hand, Daqin Railway's EBIT dived 19%, over the last year. We think hat kind of performance, if repeated frequently, could well lead to difficulties for the stock. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Daqin Railway's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
另一方面,大秦鐵路的息稅前利潤比去年下降了19%。我們認爲,這種表現如果經常重演,很可能會給股票帶來困難。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但是,未來的收益將決定大秦鐵路未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果您專注於未來,可以查看這份顯示分析師利潤預測的免費報告。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. While Daqin Railway has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. During the last three years, Daqin Railway produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 56% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
但是我們最終的考慮因素也很重要,因爲公司無法用紙面利潤來償還債務;它需要冷硬現金。儘管大秦鐵路的資產負債表上有淨現金,但仍值得一看其將息稅前收益(EBIT)轉換爲自由現金流的能力,以幫助我們了解其建立(或侵蝕)現金餘額的速度有多快。在過去的三年中,大秦鐵路產生了穩健的自由現金流,相當於其息稅前利潤的56%,與我們的預期差不多。這種自由現金流使公司處於有利地位,可以在適當的時候償還債務。
Summing Up
總結一下
While it is always sensible to investigate a company's debt, in this case Daqin Railway has CN¥40.7b in net cash and a decent-looking balance sheet. So we don't have any problem with Daqin Railway's use of debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 2 warning signs with Daqin Railway (at least 1 which is potentially serious) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
儘管調查公司的債務總是明智的,但在這種情況下,大秦鐵路的淨現金爲407元人民幣,資產負債表看起來不錯。因此,我們對大秦鐵路使用債務沒有任何問題。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。我們已經在大秦鐵路發現了兩個警告標誌(至少一個可能很嚴重),了解它們應該是您投資過程的一部分。
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
當然,如果你是那種喜歡在沒有債務負擔的情況下購買股票的投資者,那麼立即查看我們的淨現金增長股票的獨家清單。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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Simply Wall ST 的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並非旨在提供財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。華爾街只是沒有持有上述任何股票的頭寸。