Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials (SZSE:300196) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt
Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials (SZSE:300196) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co., Ltd (SZSE:300196) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
霍華德·馬克斯很好地表達了這一點,他說,擔心股價波動不如擔心『永久損失的可能性,這是我所擔心的風險……而我認識的每一個實際投資者也都擔心這個』。在考量一家公司有多風險時,自然會關注其資產負債表,因爲企業崩潰時通常會涉及債務。重要的是,長海股份有限公司(SZSE:300196)確實揹負着債務。但股東應該擔心其債務使用嗎?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
債務何時會變得危險?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
債務是幫助企業增長的工具,但如果企業無法償還債權人,那麼它就處於債權人的控制之下。如果情況變得非常糟糕,債權人可以接管企業。然而,更常見(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,公司必須以便宜的股價稀釋股東,以僅僅控制債務。儘管如此,最常見的情況是,公司合理管理其債務,並利用這一優勢。在考慮企業使用多少債務時,首先要查看其現金與債務的關係。
How Much Debt Does Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Carry?
長海股份有限公司揹負了多少債務?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials had debt of CN¥1.12b at the end of September 2024, a reduction from CN¥1.18b over a year. However, its balance sheet shows it holds CN¥1.33b in cash, so it actually has CN¥211.2m net cash.
下圖可以點擊查看更詳細的信息,顯示長海股份在2024年9月底的債務爲人民幣11.2億,比一年前的人民幣11.8億有所減少。然而,其資產負債表顯示它持有人民幣13.3億的現金,因此實際上它擁有人民幣21120萬的淨現金。
How Healthy Is Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials' Balance Sheet?
江蘇長海股份的資產負債表健康嗎?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials had liabilities of CN¥1.36b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥921.4m falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥1.33b as well as receivables valued at CN¥992.6m due within 12 months. So these liquid assets roughly match the total liabilities.
最新的資產負債表數據顯示,江蘇長海股份在一年內的負債爲13.6億人民幣,逾期負債爲92140萬人民幣。 對沖這些義務,它擁有現金13.3億人民幣,以及12個月內到期的應收款項99260萬人民幣。因此,這些流動資產大致匹配總負債。
This state of affairs indicates that Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials' balance sheet looks quite solid, as its total liabilities are just about equal to its liquid assets. So it's very unlikely that the CN¥4.60b company is short on cash, but still worth keeping an eye on the balance sheet. Succinctly put, Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!
這種狀況表明,江蘇長海股份的資產負債表看起來相當穩健,因爲其總負債與流動資產大致相等。因此,這家46億人民幣的公司不大可能缺乏現金,但仍需關注資產負債表。 簡而言之,江蘇長海股份擁有淨現金,因此可以公平地說,它沒有沉重的債務負擔!
The modesty of its debt load may become crucial for Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials if management cannot prevent a repeat of the 40% cut to EBIT over the last year. Falling earnings (if the trend continues) could eventually make even modest debt quite risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
如果管理層無法防止過去一年EBIT削減40%,其債務負擔的適度性可能變得至關重要。 收益下降(如果這種趨勢持續)最終可能使即使是適度的債務也變得相當危險。 資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但正如我們所說,未來的收益比什麼都更能判斷江蘇長海股份維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的看法,你可能會發現這份分析師收益預測的免費報告很有趣。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. While Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Over the last three years, Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
最後,公司只能用現金來償還債務,而不是會計利潤。雖然江蘇長海股份的資產負債表上有淨現金,但查看它將利息和稅前收益(EBIT)轉化爲自由現金流的能力仍然值得,以幫助我們了解它建立(或耗損)現金餘額的速度。 在過去三年中,江蘇長海股份總共經歷了大幅負的自由現金流。雖然這可能是由於增長支出,但這確實使債務風險更大。
Summing Up
總結
While we empathize with investors who find debt concerning, you should keep in mind that Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials has net cash of CN¥211.2m, as well as more liquid assets than liabilities. So although we see some areas for improvement, we're not too worried about Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials's balance sheet. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example - Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
雖然我們同情那些對債務感到擔憂的投資者,但您應該記住,長海股份的淨現金爲21120萬人民幣,同時流動資產高於負債。因此,儘管我們看到一些改進的空間,但我們並不太擔心長海股份的資產負債表。在分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是重點關注的領域。但最終,每個公司都可能存在資產負債表外的風險。例如——長海股份有2個警告信號,我們認爲您應該注意。
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
當然,如果你是那種喜歡購買沒有債務負擔的股票的投資者,那麼不要猶豫,今天就來發現我們獨家的淨現金成長股票列表。
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