Malaysia's Export Performance Expected To Remain Positive Amid Global Uncertainties
Malaysia's Export Performance Expected To Remain Positive Amid Global Uncertainties
CIMB Investment Bank Bhd, in its separate note, suggested that Malaysia's external trade outlook remains positive due to the ongoing global recovery and the technology upcycle, coupled with easing monetary policies in the second half of 2024. The bank projected export growth of 5.3% in 2025 (compared to +5.0% in 2024) and a 5.6% increase in imports (compared to +12.8% in 2024), with GDP growth expected to reach 5%. Despite potential tariff challenges from US protectionist policies, CIMB emphasised that Malaysia's strategic location, advanced trade infrastructure, and proactive policies position the country well in a changing global trade environment.Malaysia's export performance is anticipated to stay on an upward trajectory, supported by the country's neutral stance and diversified export structure. Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd highlighted that this growth is driven by front-loading orders in anticipation of potential trade conflicts and the ongoing global demand for electrical and electronics products.
馬來西亞的出口表現預計將持續上升，得益於該國的中立立場和多元化的出口結構。宏利投資銀行指出，這一增長是由於前置訂單的推動，以應對潛在的交易衝突以及持續的全球對電氣和電子產品的需求。
However, the bank noted that trade policy uncertainties could dampen the global trade outlook. As a result, it has maintained its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecasts at 5.0% year-on-year (YoY) for 2024, with a slight dip to +4.9% YoY for 2025.
然而，銀行指出，貿易政策的不確定性可能會抑制全球交易展望。因此，它將2024年的國內生產總值（GDP）增長預測維持在5.0%的同比增長（YoY），並預計2025年略降至4.9%的同比增長。
According to the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM), Malaysia's total trade in November grew by 2.9%, reaching RM237.8 billion compared to RM231.1 billion a year earlier. This growth was primarily driven by increases in both exports and imports. Exports rose by 4.1% to RM126.6 billion, while imports grew by 1.6% to RM111.3 billion. The trade surplus surged by 26.3% to RM15.3 billion, marking the 55th consecutive month of surplus since May 2020.
根據馬來西亞統計局（DOSM）的數據顯示，馬來西亞11月份的總交易增長了2.9%，達到了2378億令吉，與去年同期的2311億令吉相比，這一增長主要得益於出口和進口的增加。出口增長了4.1%，達1266億令吉，而進口增長了1.6%，達1113億令吉。貿易順差激增26.3%，達153億令吉，自2020年5月以來已連續第55個月保持順差。
CIMB Investment Bank Bhd, in its separate note, suggested that Malaysia's external trade outlook remains positive due to the ongoing global recovery and the technology upcycle, coupled with easing monetary policies in the second half of 2024. The bank projected export growth of 5.3% in 2025 (compared to +5.0% in 2024) and a 5.6% increase in imports (compared to +12.8% in 2024), with GDP growth expected to reach 5%. Despite potential tariff challenges from US protectionist policies, CIMB emphasised that Malaysia's strategic location, advanced trade infrastructure, and proactive policies position the country well in a changing global trade environment.
CIMb投資銀行在其單獨的報告中建議，由於全球復甦和科技行業的上升週期，加上2024年下半年貨幣政策的放鬆，馬來西亞的外貿展望仍然樂觀。該銀行預計2025年的出口增長爲5.3%（相比2024年的+5.0%），進口增長爲5.6%（相比2024年的+12.8%），預計GDP增長將達到5%。儘管面臨來自美國保護主義政策的潛在關稅挑戰，CIMb強調馬來西亞的戰略位置、先進的交易基礎設施以及積極的政策使該國在變化的全球貿易環境中處於良好位置。
Maybank Investment Bank Bhd echoed this outlook, noting that the growth in exports and imports would ease concerns over the current account balance for the fourth quarter of 2024, after two quarters of a modest surplus. For the 11 months of 2024, Maybank reported that exports and imports grew by 4.7% and 13.3%, respectively, leading to a trade surplus of RM117.9 billion.
馬來銀行投資銀行也呼應了這一展望，指出出口和進口的增長將減輕2024年第四季度當前帳戶餘額的擔憂，此前的兩個季度出現了適度的順差。在2024年的11個月中，馬來銀行報告稱，出口和進口分別增長了4.7%和13.3%，導致貿易順差爲1179億令吉。
Looking ahead to 2025, the bank cautioned that uncertainties surrounding US trade and tariff policies, particularly under a potential second term of former President Donald Trump, may result in slower growth for both exports and imports. Maybank forecasted export growth of +4.5%, import growth of +6.3%, and a lower trade surplus of RM112 billion.
展望2025年，銀行警告稱，圍繞美國貿易和關稅政策的不確定性，特別是在前總統特朗普可能的第二個任期下，可能導致出口和進口增長放緩。馬來亞銀行預測出口增長爲4.5%，進口增長爲6.3%，貿易順差降低至RM1120億。
