Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE:CWK) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt
Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE:CWK) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Cushman & Wakefield plc (NYSE:CWK) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
由伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司的查理·芒格支持的外部基金經理李露對此毫不掩飾,他說:「最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久的資本損失。」因此,很明顯,當你考慮任何給定股票的風險時,你需要考慮債務,因爲過多的債務會使公司陷入困境。與許多其他公司一樣,庫什曼和韋克菲爾德有限公司(紐約證券交易所代碼:CWK)也使用債務。但是這筆債務是股東關心的問題嗎?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
債務何時危險?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
一般而言,只有當公司無法通過籌集資金或用自己的現金流輕鬆還清債務時,債務才會成爲真正的問題。最終,如果公司無法履行償還債務的法律義務,股東們可能會一無所獲。但是,更頻繁(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,公司必須以低廉的價格發行股票,永久稀釋股東,以支撐其資產負債表。當然,債務的好處在於它通常代表廉價資本,尤其是當它以高回報率進行再投資的能力取代公司的稀釋時。當我們考慮公司使用債務時,我們首先將現金和債務放在一起考慮。
How Much Debt Does Cushman & Wakefield Carry?
庫什曼和韋克菲爾德揹負了多少債務?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Cushman & Wakefield had debt of US$3.07b at the end of September 2024, a reduction from US$3.20b over a year. However, it does have US$775.4m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$2.29b.
您可以點擊下圖以獲取更多詳細信息,該圖片顯示,截至2024年9月底,庫什曼和韋克菲爾德的債務爲30.7億美元,較上一年的32.0億美元有所減少。但是,它確實有7.754億美元的現金抵消了這一點,淨負債約爲22.9億美元。
How Healthy Is Cushman & Wakefield's Balance Sheet?
庫什曼和韋克菲爾德的資產負債表有多健康?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Cushman & Wakefield had liabilities of US$2.24b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$3.59b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had US$775.4m in cash and US$1.70b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$3.36b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
根據上次報告的資產負債表,庫什曼和韋克菲爾德的負債爲22.4億美元,12個月以後到期的負債爲35.9億美元。與此相抵消的是,它有7.754億美元的現金和17.0億美元的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,其負債總額比其現金和短期應收賬款的總和高出33.6億美元。
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of US$3.36b, we think shareholders really should watch Cushman & Wakefield's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.
鑑於這一赤字實際上高於公司33.6億美元的市值,我們認爲股東們確實應該關注庫什曼和韋克菲爾德的債務水平,就像父母第一次看着孩子騎自行車一樣。假設,如果公司被迫通過按當前股價籌集資金來償還負債,則需要進行極其嚴重的稀釋。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
爲了擴大公司相對於收益的負債規模,我們計算其淨負債除以其扣除利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前的收益(EBITDA)和其利息和稅前收益(EBIT)除以其利息支出(利息保障)。這樣,我們既要考慮債務的絕對數量,也要考慮爲其支付的利率。
While we wouldn't worry about Cushman & Wakefield's net debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.9, we think its super-low interest cover of 1.5 times is a sign of high leverage. It seems clear that the cost of borrowing money is negatively impacting returns for shareholders, of late. The good news is that Cushman & Wakefield grew its EBIT a smooth 43% over the last twelve months. Like the milk of human kindness that sort of growth increases resilience, making the company more capable of managing debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Cushman & Wakefield's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
雖然我們不擔心庫什曼和韋克菲爾德的淨負債與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的比率爲4.9,但我們認爲其1.5倍的超低利息覆蓋率是高槓杆率的標誌。看來很明顯,借錢成本最近對股東的回報產生了負面影響。好消息是,庫什曼和韋克菲爾德在過去十二個月中其息稅前利潤平穩增長了43%。就像人類善良的牛奶一樣,這種增長可以增強韌性,使公司更有能力管理債務。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但是,未來的收益將決定庫什曼和韋克菲爾德未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果您專注於未來,可以查看這份顯示分析師利潤預測的免費報告。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Cushman & Wakefield recorded free cash flow of 35% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
最後,儘管稅務人員可能喜歡會計利潤,但貸款人只接受冷硬現金。因此,合乎邏輯的步驟是研究該息稅前利潤與實際自由現金流相匹配的比例。縱觀最近三年,庫什曼和韋克菲爾德錄得的自由現金流佔其息稅前利潤的35%,低於我們的預期。在償還債務方面,這並不好。
Our View
我們的觀點
To be frank both Cushman & Wakefield's net debt to EBITDA and its track record of covering its interest expense with its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Once we consider all the factors above, together, it seems to us that Cushman & Wakefield's debt is making it a bit risky. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but we'd generally feel more comfortable with less leverage. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 2 warning signs with Cushman & Wakefield (at least 1 which can't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
坦率地說,庫什曼和韋克菲爾德與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的淨負債及其用息稅前利潤支付利息支出的往績都使我們對其債務水平感到相當不舒服。但好的一面是,其息稅前利潤增長率是一個好兆頭,也使我們更加樂觀。一旦我們綜合考慮了上述所有因素,在我們看來,庫什曼和韋克菲爾德的債務使其有點風險。這不一定是一件壞事,但我們通常會因爲降低槓桿率而感到更自在。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。我們已經向庫什曼和韋克菲爾德確定了兩個警告信號(至少有一個不容忽視),了解它們應該是您投資過程的一部分。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
畢竟,如果你對一家資產負債表堅如磐石的快速成長型公司更感興趣,那麼請立即查看我們的淨現金增長股票清單。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對這篇文章有反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎?直接聯繫我們。或者,發送電子郵件給編輯組(網址爲)simplywallst.com。
Simply Wall ST 的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並非旨在提供財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。華爾街只是沒有持有上述任何股票的頭寸。