Shanghai Environment Group Co., Ltd's (SHSE:601200) Stock Is Soaring But Financials Seem Inconsistent: Will The Uptrend Continue?
Shanghai Environment Group Co., Ltd's (SHSE:601200) Stock Is Soaring But Financials Seem Inconsistent: Will The Uptrend Continue?
Most readers would already be aware that Shanghai Environment Group's (SHSE:601200) stock increased significantly by 11% over the past three months. However, we decided to pay attention to the company's fundamentals which don't appear to give a clear sign about the company's financial health. In this article, we decided to focus on Shanghai Environment Group's ROE.
大多數讀者可能已經意識到,上海環境(SHSE:601200)的股票在過去三個月內大幅上漲了11%。然而,我們決定關注公司的基本面,而這些並沒有明顯表明公司財務健康狀況。在本文中,我們決定專注於上海環境的ROE。
Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.
股東權益回報率(ROE)是用於評估公司管理層利用公司資本效率的關鍵指標。換句話說,它是一個盈利能力比率,用於衡量股東提供的資本的回報率。
How To Calculate Return On Equity?
如何計算股東權益回報率?
The formula for ROE is:
ROE的公式是:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
股東權益回報率 = 凈利潤(來自持續運營)÷ 股東權益
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Shanghai Environment Group is:
因此,根據上述公式,上海環境的ROE爲:
5.3% = CN¥695m ÷ CN¥13b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).
5.3% = CN¥69500萬 ÷ CN¥130億(基於截至2024年9月的過去十二個月)。
The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. One way to conceptualize this is that for each CN¥1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made CN¥0.05 in profit.
「回報」指的是公司在過去一年中的收益。可以這樣理解:對於每1元股東資本,公司賺取了0.05元的利潤。
What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?
ROE與盈利增長有何關係?
Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.
到目前爲止,我們已經了解到ROE衡量的是公司生成利潤的效率。根據公司選擇再投資或「保留」的利潤比例,我們能夠評估公司的未來盈利能力。假設其他條件不變,相較於沒有相同特徵的公司,既有更高股本回報率又有更高利潤保留的公司,通常具有更高的增長率。
Shanghai Environment Group's Earnings Growth And 5.3% ROE
上海環境的盈利增長和5.3%的ROE
On the face of it, Shanghai Environment Group's ROE is not much to talk about. However, its ROE is similar to the industry average of 5.1%, so we won't completely dismiss the company. But then again, Shanghai Environment Group's five year net income shrunk at a rate of 3.9%. Remember, the company's ROE is a bit low to begin with. Therefore, the decline in earnings could also be the result of this.
乍一看,上海環境的ROE並不值得一提。然而,其ROE與行業平均水平5.1%相似,因此我們不會完全否定該公司。但是,上海環境過去五年的凈利潤以每年3.9%的速度縮減。請記住,該公司的ROE本身就偏低。因此,盈利的下降也可能是這一原因造成的。
That being said, we compared Shanghai Environment Group's performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 1.6% in the same 5-year period.
話雖如此,我們將上海環境的表現與行業進行了比較,發現儘管該公司的盈利有所減少,但同一時期行業的盈利以1.6%的速度增長,這讓我們感到擔憂。
The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. If you're wondering about Shanghai Environment Group's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.
對公司估值的基礎在很大程度上與其盈利增長相關。投資者接下來需要判斷的是預期的盈利增長,或者缺乏盈利增長,是否已經體現在股價中。通過這樣做,他們將能了解股票是在進入一片晴朗的水域還是等待在渾濁的水域。 如果你想了解上海環境的估值,可以查看其市盈率與行業的對比。
Is Shanghai Environment Group Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?
上海環境是否有效地再投資其利潤?
Shanghai Environment Group's low three-year median payout ratio of 21% (or a retention ratio of 79%) over the last three years should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings to fuel its growth but the company's earnings have actually shrunk. The low payout should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings and consequently, should see some growth. It looks like there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.
上海環境在過去三年中低達21%的三年中位派息比率(或79%的保留比率)意味着公司正在保留大部分盈利以推動其增長,但公司的盈利實際上有所下降。較低的派息比率應該意味着公司在保留大部分盈利,因此應該會看到一定的增長。看起來可能還有其他原因來解釋這種缺失。例如,業務可能正在下滑。
In addition, Shanghai Environment Group has been paying dividends over a period of six years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is preferred by the management even though earnings have been in decline.
此外,上海環境在六年期間一直在支付分紅,這表明儘管盈利在下降,管理層仍優先維持分紅支付。
Summary
總結
Overall, we have mixed feelings about Shanghai Environment Group. While the company does have a high rate of reinvestment, the low ROE means that all that reinvestment is not reaping any benefit to its investors, and moreover, its having a negative impact on the earnings growth. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.
總體而言,我們對上海環境有着複雜的情感。儘管公司確實有較高的再投資率,但較低的ROE意味着所有的再投資都沒有給投資者帶來任何好處,並且更重要的是,這對盈利增長產生了負面影響。話雖如此,我們研究了最新的分析師預測,發現雖然公司過去的盈利有所縮減,但分析師預計其未來盈利將會增長。這些分析師的預期是基於行業的廣泛預期,還是基於公司的基本面?點擊這裏查看我們分析師的公司預測頁面。
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