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The $6.6 Trillion Question: Can Markets Weather Triple Witching And Hawkish Fed Signals? Here's What This Analyst Says

The $6.6 Trillion Question: Can Markets Weather Triple Witching And Hawkish Fed Signals? Here's What This Analyst Says

$6.6萬億的問題:市場能否經受住三重巫術和鷹派聯儲局的信號?這位分析師是這樣說的
Benzinga ·  06:37

Following a sluggish session on Thursday and a fall on Wednesday after the Fed's hawkish rate cut, Wall Street is now bracing for Friday's "Triple Witching" session which is slated to see about $6.6 trillion options to expire.

在經歷了週四乏力的交易時段以及週三聯儲局鷹派減息後的下跌後,華爾街現在正在爲週五的「三巫日」做準備,預計將有約6.6萬億的期權到期。

What Happened: The "Triple Witching" hour is a quarterly event that occurs during the final hour of trade on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. During this period, contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, and stock options all expire at the same time.

發生了什麼:"三巫日"是一個季度事件,發生在每年三月、六月、九月和十二月的第三個星期五交易的最後一小時。在此期間,股票指數期貨、股票指數期權和股票期權的合約全部同時到期。

According to the Singapore-based broker, uSMART, Friday, Dec. 20 marks the notorious 'Triple Witching' day, when the total options contracts worth $5.2 trillion on the S&P 500 index, $710 billion worth of contracts on single stocks and $735 billion worth of contracts on the Nasdaq 100, Russell 200 and others are set to expire.

根據新加坡的經紀商uSMARt的信息,12月20日星期五是臭名昭著的「三巫日」,屆時總價值5.2萬億的期權合約在標普500指數上、7100億的單隻股票合約以及7350億的納斯達克100、羅素200等合約將到期。

This Friday's "Triple Witching Day" is expected to be the largest options expiration day in history, with a total of over $6 trillion in options tied to stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and indices set to expire. #stocks #ETFs pic.twitter.com/ExaqHgfzX5

— uSMART (@usmartsg) December 20, 2024

本星期五的「三巫日」預計將成爲歷史上最大期權到期日,總計超過6萬億的期權與股票、可交易ETF和指數相關聯將會到期。 #股票 #ETF pic.twitter.com/ExaqHgfzX5

— uSMARt (@usmartsg) 2024年12月20日

The total $6.6 trillion worth of option contracts can be further divided into four categories. Here's what they include:

總計6.6萬億的期權合約可以進一步分爲四類。以下是它們的內容:

  • About $4.5 trillion notional worth of index options contracts.
  • $685 billion notional worth of options on futures.
  • $745 billion notional worth of options on exchange-traded funds.
  • $710 billion notional worth of contracts on single stocks.
  • 約4.5萬億的股票指數期權合約。
  • 6850億的期貨期權合約。
  • $7450億的可交易ETF期權合約名義價值。
  • $7100億的單隻股票合約名義價值。

"The timing of buying the dip is complicated by options expiration tomorrow and Christmas next week, but a recovery by the end of the year would not surprise anyone," said Louis Navellier, founder of Navellier & Associates.

Navellier & Associates的創始人路易斯·納韋利爾表示:「買入跌勢的時機因明天的期權到期和下週的聖誕節而變得複雜,但在年末會有復甦並不讓人意外。」

See Also: Nike's New CEO Blames Promotions For Declining Profits, Says Turnaround Efforts May Hurt As Company Moves To Clear Excess Inventory

另請參見:耐克的新首席執行官將利潤下降歸咎於促銷,並表示公司清理過剩庫存的努力可能會受到影響。

Why It Matters: This "Triple Witching" convergence can lead to heightened market volatility as traders close, roll over, or offset their expiring contracts, often resulting in unusual price movements and increased trading volumes.

重要性:這種「颱風三重」合約的交匯可能導致市場波動加劇,因爲交易者關閉、滾動或抵消到期合約,通常會導致不尋常的價格變動和交易量增加。

Looking back at the last few triple-witching events, the S&P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), has struggled during these high-stakes trading days.

回顧最近幾次的「三重到期」事件,由SPDR 標普500指數ETF(紐交所:SPY)跟蹤的標普500指數在這些高風險的交易日中表現不佳。

  • Sept. 20, 2024: Decline of 0.2%.
  • Jun. 21, 2024: Decline of 0.5%.
  • Mar. 15, 2024: Decline of 1%.
  • Dec. 15, 2023: Decline of 0.6%.
  • 2024年9月20日:下跌0.2%。
  • 2024年6月21日:下跌0.5%。
  • 2024年3月15日:下降1%。
  • 2023年12月15日:下降0.6%。

Tech stocks, represented by the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), fell in the last three triple-witching occasions, dropping 0.19% in September, 0.8% in June and 1.2% in March, while surging 0.5% in December 2023.

以納指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust(納斯達克:QQQ)爲代表的科技股在過去三次三重到期的情況下下跌,九月下降0.19%,六月下降0.8%,三月下降1.2%,而在2023年12月上漲0.5%。

Price Action: U.S. stock futures declined, ahead of the 'Triple Witching' Friday. All four major indices were trading lower.

價格走勢:美國股票期貨下跌,迎接'三重到期'週五。所有四個主要指數均下跌。

In premarket trading, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust was down 1.05% to $579.97 and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF fell 1.26% to $507.68, according to Benzinga Pro data.

在盤前交易中,SPDR 標普500指數ETF信託下跌1.05%,至579.97美元,而納指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust下降1.26%,至507.68美元,數據來自Benzinga Pro。

Futures Change (+/-)
Nasdaq 100 -1.20%
S&P 500 -0.75%
Dow Jones -0.59%
Russell 2000 -1.24%
期貨 變動(+/-)
納斯達克100 -1.20%
S&P 500 -0.75%
道瓊斯 -0.59%
羅素2000 -1.24%
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Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

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