To the annoyance of some shareholders, Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (NYSE:HOV) shares are down a considerable 26% in the last month, which continues a horrid run for the company. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 12% share price drop.
Even after such a large drop in price, Hovnanian Enterprises' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 3.7x might still make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 19x and even P/E's above 34x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/E.
With earnings growth that's superior to most other companies of late, Hovnanian Enterprises has been doing relatively well. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think this strong earnings performance might be less impressive moving forward. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
Keen to find out how analysts think Hovnanian Enterprises' future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.
Is There Any Growth For Hovnanian Enterprises?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as depressed as Hovnanian Enterprises' is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market decidedly.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 20% gain to the company's bottom line. Still, incredibly EPS has fallen 58% in total from three years ago, which is quite disappointing. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Turning to the outlook, the next year should bring diminished returns, with earnings decreasing 13% as estimated by the lone analyst watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 15% growth , that's a disappointing outcome.
With this information, we are not surprised that Hovnanian Enterprises is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/E has reached a floor yet with earnings going in reverse. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.
The Final Word
Having almost fallen off a cliff, Hovnanian Enterprises' share price has pulled its P/E way down as well. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
As we suspected, our examination of Hovnanian Enterprises' analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Hovnanian Enterprises (of which 1 is a bit concerning!) you should know about.
If you're unsure about the strength of Hovnanian Enterprises' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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