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Investors Five-year Losses Continue as MTR (HKG:66) Dips a Further 4.0% This Week, Earnings Continue to Decline

Investors Five-year Losses Continue as MTR (HKG:66) Dips a Further 4.0% This Week, Earnings Continue to Decline

投資者的五年損失持續,因港鐵(HKG:66)本週再跌4.0%,盈利持續下滑
Simply Wall St ·  2024/12/22 20:11

In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But in any portfolio, there will be mixed results between individual stocks. So we wouldn't blame long term MTR Corporation Limited (HKG:66) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 43% over a half decade.

爲了證明選擇個別股票的努力是值得的,努力超越市場指數基金的回報是有意義的。但在任何投資組合中,個別股票的表現會有所不同。因此,我們不會責怪長揸MTR CORP N4709(HKG:66)股票的股東對他們的持有決定產生疑慮,因爲該股票在五年內下跌了43%。

After losing 4.0% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.

在過去一週損失了4.0%後,值得調查一下公司的基本面,以了解我們可以從過去的表現中得出什麼結論。

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

用巴菲特的話說,『船會在世界各地航行,但平地社會將繁榮。市場上價格和價值之間將繼續存在巨大的差異……』一種檢查市場情緒如何隨着時間變化的方法是觀察公司的股價與每股收益(EPS)之間的互動。

During five years of share price growth, MTR moved from a loss to profitability. Most would consider that to be a good thing, so it's counter-intuitive to see the share price declining. Other metrics might give us a better handle on how its value is changing over time.

在五年的股價增長中,MTR從虧損轉爲盈利。大多數人會認爲這是好事,因此看到股價下跌顯得不合常理。其他指標可能會更好地幫助我們了解其價值隨時間的變化。

We note that the dividend has remained healthy, so that wouldn't really explain the share price drop. It's not immediately clear to us why the stock price is down but further research might provide some answers.

我們注意到分紅派息保持良好,因此這並不能解釋股價下跌的原因。我們尚不清楚股價下跌的原因是什麼,但進一步的研究可能會提供一些答案。

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

下面的圖像顯示了收益和營業收入隨時間的變化情況(如果點擊圖像,可以看到更詳細的信息)。

big
SEHK:66 Earnings and Revenue Growth December 23rd 2024
香港證券交易所:66 2024年12月的每股收益和營業收入增長

MTR is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. You can see what analysts are predicting for MTR in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

MTR是一隻知名的股票,得到了衆多分析師的關注,這表明未來增長有一定的可見性。你可以在這個未來利潤預測的互動圖表中看到分析師對MTR的預測。

What About Dividends?

關於分紅派息的問題

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, MTR's TSR for the last 5 years was -32%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

除了衡量股價回報,投資者還應考慮總股東回報(TSR)。TSR是一種回報計算,考慮了現金分紅的價值(假設任何獲得的分紅被再投資)以及任何折扣融資和分拆的計算值。因此,對於那些支付慷慨分紅的公司,TSR往往遠高於股價回報。實際上,MTR在過去5年的TSR爲-32%,這超過了之前提到的股價回報。公司支付的分紅因此提升了總股東回報。

A Different Perspective

不同的視角

While the broader market gained around 26% in the last year, MTR shareholders lost 6.0% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 6% doled out over the last five years. We would want clear information suggesting the company will grow, before taking the view that the share price will stabilize. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand MTR better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for MTR that you should be aware of before investing here.

雖然大盤在過去一年上漲了約26%,但MTR股東損失了6.0%(即使包括分紅派息)。即使是好的股票,股價有時也會下跌,但我們希望在過於關注之前,看到業務的基本指標有所改善。不幸的是,長揸的股東遭受了更大的損失,因爲過去五年損失了6%。我們希望有明確的信息表明公司將會增長,才會認爲股價會穩定。跟蹤股價在長期的表現總是很有趣。但是爲了更好地了解MTR,我們需要考慮許多其他因素。例如,我們發現了MTR的一個警告信號,您在這裏投資之前應該注意。

But note: MTR may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

但請注意:MTR可能不是最值得購買的股票。所以看看這個有趣公司的免費名單,這些公司具有過去的盈利增長(以及未來的增長預測)。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

請注意,本文中引用的市場回報反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有反饋?對內容有疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至 editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇來自Simply Wall ST的文章是一般性的。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,採用無偏見的方法,我們的文章並不旨在提供財務建議。它不構成對任何股票的買入或賣出建議,也未考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您提供以基本數據驅動的長期分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall ST在提到的任何股票中均沒有持倉。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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