Rosenblatt analyst Steve Frankel maintained a Buy rating on Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META) with a price target of $811.
The stock is currently featured among the best ideas for the first half of 2025, reflecting key themes across Rosenblatt's research universe.
Meta is in the midst of an impressive and durable artificial intelligence-driven growth renaissance, he says.
Revenues rose 22% in the first nine months of 2024 after growing 16% in 2023 and dipping 1% in 2022.
Also Read: Instagram's Ad Revenue Could Hit $32 Billion by 2025, Driving Meta's Growth: Report
The growth is principally advertising, which accounts for 98% of sales, and AI-driven. AI is driving up daily usage on Facebook and Instagram, bolstering reel traction and improving ad efficiency.
Meta uses AI to adjust ad loads better, improve action sequences tied to targeting and executing ads, and help advertisers create and manage campaigns, Rosenblatt explained.
Ad revenue rose 19% in the third quarter of 2024, only 300 bps slower than the 22% growth of the second quarter of 2024, despite an 11.5 percentage point stiffer comparison.
From here, comparisons are steadier, suggesting recent traction can continue.
Frankel estimates 19% revenue growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, within the 12% to 20% guidance. We sustain that growth estimate into 2025.
With this revenue growth, Meta has room to absorb more investment.
The analyst assumes capex would increase 20% in 2025 to $46.6 billion, nearly flat as a percentage of sales. Hea also expects expense growth of 14% in 2025, accelerating from an 11% rise in 2024, and has adjusted EBITDA margins rising 110 bps to 62.6%.
Meta has nearly 3.3 billion people using its family of services daily. Its revenue growth affords more AI investment growth than others, a backdrop allowing AI-driven marketing services to improve more than others. With its business primarily performance marketing, a better marketing mousetrap supports share gains, the analyst says.
One risk is global trade volatility. Out-of-region revenue (mainly China and Asia marketers buying ads in the US) was 7% of Meta ad revenue in 2023 and dropped to 5% in the third quarter of 2024.
One could imagine a trade war generating disruption once President-elect Trump officially takes office. However, it is not clear that Trump wants that. He may be threatening tariffs to seek concessions. In a trade war, Chinese and Asian marketers like Temu and Shein could also react by sourcing more locally, supporting continued marketing.
Meta And TikTok
TikTok could be a hedge.
If the Supreme Court allows the law requiring a TikTok sale or ban to stand, then TikTok's fate would rest in Trump's hands, and he would have the ability to interpret and enforce legislation or push for new legislation.
His recent statements of support for TikTok suggest that he believes trade concessions from China could be won in return for keeping the app.
Alternatively, a whole-out trade war could result in Trump allowing a TikTok ban to come into effect.
Price Action: META stock is up 2.55% at $600.15 at last check Monday.
羅森布拉特分析師史蒂夫·弗蘭克爾維持對Meta Platforms Inc（納斯達克股票代碼：META）的買入評級，目標股價爲811美元。
該股票目前是2025年上半年的最佳創意之一，反映了羅森布拉特研究領域的關鍵主題。
他說，Meta 正處於由人工智能驅動的令人印象深刻且持久的增長復興之中。
收入在2023年增長了16％，2022年下降了1％之後，在2024年前九個月增長了22％。
另請閱讀：到2025年，Instagram的廣告收入可能達到320億美元，推動Meta的增長：報告
增長主要是廣告，佔銷售額的98％，由人工智能驅動。人工智能正在推動Facebook和Instagram的每日使用量增加，從而增強了卷軸吸引力並提高了廣告效率。
羅森布拉特解釋說，Meta 使用 AI 更好地調整廣告加載量，改善與廣告定位和執行相關的操作順序，並幫助廣告商創建和管理廣告活動。
儘管比較強勁了11.5個百分點，但廣告收入在2024年第三季度增長了19％，僅比2024年第二季度的22％增長低了300個點子。
從這裏來看，比較更加穩定，這表明最近的走勢可能會繼續。
弗蘭克爾估計，2024年第四季度收入增長19％，在12％至20％的預期範圍內。我們將這一增長預期維持到2025年。
隨着收入的增長，Meta 有吸收更多投資的空間。
分析師認爲，到2025年，資本支出將增長20％，達到466億美元，佔銷售額的百分比幾乎持平。Hea還預計，2025年支出將增長14％，從2024年的11％增長加速，並將息稅折舊攤銷前利潤率增長110個點子至62.6％。
Meta 每天有近 33% 的人使用其一系列服務。與其他公司相比，其收入增長帶來了更多的人工智能投資增長，這一背景使人工智能驅動的營銷服務比其他服務得到更大的改善。分析師表示，由於其業務主要是績效營銷，因此更好的營銷捕鼠器可以支持股價上漲。
一種風險是全球貿易波動。2023 年，區域外收入（主要是中國和亞洲營銷人員在美國購買廣告）佔元廣告收入的 7%，在 2024 年第三季度下降至 5%。
可以想象，當選總統特朗普正式上任後，貿易戰將造成混亂。但是，目前尚不清楚特朗普是否想要那樣。他可能會威脅徵收關稅以尋求讓步。在貿易戰中，像Temu和Shein這樣的中國和亞洲營銷人員也可以通過增加本地採購來做出反應，支持持續的營銷。
Meta 和抖音
抖音可能是一個對沖工具。
如果最高法院允許要求出售或禁令TikTok的法律生效，那麼TikTok的命運將掌握在特朗普手中，他將有能力解釋和執行立法或推動新的立法。
他最近發表的支持TikTok的聲明表明，他相信保留該應用程序可以贏得中國的貿易讓步。
或者，一場全面的貿易戰可能導致特朗普允許TikTok禁令生效。
價格走勢：週一最後一次檢查時，META股價上漲2.55％，至600.15美元。
