Investing in CITIC Securities (SHSE:600030) a Year Ago Would Have Delivered You a 58% Gain
Investing in CITIC Securities (SHSE:600030) a Year Ago Would Have Delivered You a 58% Gain
These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. To wit, the CITIC Securities Company Limited (SHSE:600030) share price is 53% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around 12% (not including dividends) in the same period. So that should have shareholders smiling. However, the longer term returns haven't been so impressive, with the stock up just 16% in the last three years.
如今,僅僅購買一個指數基金就很簡單,你的收益應該(大致上)與市場相匹配。但如果你選擇了正確的個股,你可能會賺更多。舉個例子,中信証券(ADR)(SHSE:600030)的股價比一年前上漲了53%,遠遠好於同期市場約12%的回報(不包括分紅派息)。這應該讓股東們滿意。然而,從長期來看,回報並不是那麼令人印象深刻,過去三年股票僅上漲了16%。
Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
現在值得關注一下公司的基本面,因爲這將幫助我們判斷長期股東回報是否與基礎業務的表現相匹配。
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
雖然市場是一種強大的定價機制,但股價反映的是投資者情緒,而不僅僅是基礎業務表現。查看公司股價與每股收益(EPS)之間的互動,可以檢視市場情緒是如何隨時間而變化的。
Over the last twelve months, CITIC Securities actually shrank its EPS by 6.3%.
在過去的十二個月裏,中信証券的每股收益實際上下降了6.3%
Given the share price gain, we doubt the market is measuring progress with EPS. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.
鑑於股價的上漲,我們懷疑市場是否在關注每股收益的進展。由於每股收益的變化似乎與股價的變化並沒有相關性,因此值得查看其他指標。
We doubt the modest 1.6% dividend yield is doing much to support the share price. Revenue was pretty flat year on year, but maybe a closer look at the data can explain the market optimism.
我們懷疑1.6%的分紅派息收益率對支持股價的作用不大。營業收入與去年基本持平,但也許仔細研究數據可以解釋市場的樂觀情緒。
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
您可以在下面看到盈利和營業收入隨時間的變化(通過點擊圖片發現確切值)。
CITIC Securities is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. You can see what analysts are predicting for CITIC Securities in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
中信証券是一隻知名股票,分析師覆蓋面廣,暗示未來增長有一定可見性。您可以在這個互動圖表中看到分析師對中信証券的未來利潤預測。
What About Dividends?
關於分紅派息的問題
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of CITIC Securities, it has a TSR of 58% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
除了衡量股價回報外,投資者還應考慮整體股東回報(TSR)。TSR考慮任何分拆或折扣資本籌集的價值,以及任何分紅,基於假設這些分紅被再投資。可以公平地說,對於支付分紅的股票,TSR提供了更完整的圖片。在中信証券的情況下,它在過去一年內的TSR爲58%。這超過了我們之前提到的股價回報。這在很大程度上是由於其分紅支付!
A Different Perspective
不同的視角
It's nice to see that CITIC Securities shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 58% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 7% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand CITIC Securities better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for CITIC Securities you should be aware of.
很高興看到中信證券(ADR)的股東在過去一年中獲得了58%的總股東回報。這其中包括分紅派息。由於一年期的總股東回報率優於五年期的總股東回報率(後者爲每年7%),這似乎表明該股票的表現近年來有所改善。鑑於股價動量仍然強勁,值得仔細關注該股票,以免錯失機會。長期跟蹤股價表現總是很有趣。但要更好地理解中信證券(ADR),我們需要考慮許多其他因素。舉個例子:我們發現中信證券(ADR)有1個警告信號,您應該注意。
But note: CITIC Securities may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
但請注意:中信證券(ADR)可能不是最佳的買入股票。因此,看看這個免費而有趣的公司名單,這些公司過去有盈利增長(並且未來有進一步增長預期)。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
請注意,本文中引用的市場回報反映了目前在中國交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有反饋?對內容有疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至 editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇來自Simply Wall ST的文章是一般性的。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,採用無偏見的方法,我們的文章並不旨在提供財務建議。它不構成對任何股票的買入或賣出建議,也未考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您提供以基本數據驅動的長期分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall ST在提到的任何股票中均沒有持倉。